The Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Production - Dissertation Example

?The Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Production Agricultural sustainability is highly determined by various factors including but not limited to climatic, ecologic, and economic conditions. Among all variables, climate change has become the significant point of research for the recent decades with regard to global warming and agriculture sustainability. Many of the alterations including structure of water resources, decline in agricultural production and subsequent socio-economic impacts can be attributed to global warming. The significance of this portfolio lies with my genuine interest to identify the relationship between crop farm level agriculture and global warming in China. The underlying inspiration behind this exploration is my experience in Bayer CropScience Ltd in Northeast China. In the changing global context, sustainable agricultural forecasting and irrigational developments require rather collaborated efforts. The production of crops including soybean, wheat, and corn becomes more difficult as the predictability of weather and climate decreases. The aftermath of global warming is very evident in Northeastern China where drought and rain failure is severe. Other challenges those have a direct impact on agriculture are inconsistency in rainfall, increasing temperature, floods, and hurricanes. Introduction Global warming inflicts wide range of calamities including rising temperature, climate change, glacier retreat and disappearance, ocean and social system issues, and health problems. Recent studies show that global warming and thereby significant climate changes have dreadfully affected agriculture production across the globe. Many countries have abandoned their agriculture production as they do not get adequate returns to cover capital invested and efforts taken. Improved agriculture production is essential for the human existence; and hence, it is necessary to find out possible ways to mitigate the impact of global warming. China, the world’ most populated country with 7% of the world’s arable land available to feed 22% of the world’s population is more likely to be affected by climate change. Among various crops, soybean is the most vulnerable one to temperature fluctuations. The suitable temperature for soybean is 15-22 °C at emergence, 20-25 °C at flowering, and 15-22 °C at maturity (Liu et al., 2008). The Context I have long years’ experience in agricultural farming and have worked in Bayer CropScience Ltd in Northeast China. The Bayer CropScience is well known for its leadership in the area of crop protection, non-agricultural pest-control, seeds and plant biotechnology around the world. Bayer vehemently tries to prevent climate changes as part of its sustainability strategy through a series of improvement programs in its own production operations. Therefore, the author is familiar with agriculture production, climate changes, and variation in the volume of farming outcomes over the past several years. The adverse effect of global warming is easily visible in Chinese Soybean industry. China is one of the world’s largest Soybean producers. However, the country has faced a considerable decline in quantity and quality of soybean produced and distributed over last few years. The concept of sustainable agriculture has become very vital to meet the basic needs of next generations. Sustainable agriculture indicates the practice of agricultural activities based on the principles of ecology. Global warming is defined as “a continuing increase in Earth’s overall temperature” (Farrar, 2007, p.7). The instrumental temperature record indicates that average global surface temperature has been increased by 0.74 degree Celsius during the 20th century. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that global surface temperature may rise in 21st century from 1.5 to 1.9o C (for lowest emissions scenario) or 3.4 to 6.1o C (for highest emissions scenario). These estimations were made by applying the techniques of sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. It is observed that an increase in global temperature will result in a sea level rise which in turn may lead to an eventual expansion of subtropical deserts. In addition to changes in agricultural yields, occurrence of some other extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events are some of the worse effects of global warming. The phenomenon and the resulted changes may vary from region to region; however, the actual cause of these regional changes still has to be proven. Kyoto Protocol is the major global mitigation effort that aims to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration or a “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (Ecopedia). Climate changes Climate change is found to be the most disastrous aftereffect of global warming. Climate change refers to changes in the average weather patterns of a region and is caused by natural transition processes as well as thoughtless human activities. Climate change cannot clearly connect to a specific human activity since this phenomenon occurs due to the equal mixing of a number of factors. Causes of climate changes Almost all modern production processes with out adequate protective measures produce harmful impacts across the globe. For instance, human activities like deforestation, increased soil exploitation, and restructuring of hills cause decreased rainfall. Although man made environmental interventions result in unfavorable climate changes, share of natural dynamic factors in this reshaping process dominate the human activities at a global scale. In the view of Rastogi (2004, p. 184), the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide absorb and emit infrared radiations and it causes green house effect; it is never possible to eliminate carbon dioxide from earth’s atmosphere. Refrigerators release a compound known as chlorofluorocarbon that causes depletion of ozone layer which in turn eventually leads to climate change. The natural transition also intensifies the climate change and it is beyond human control. In addition, construction processes release many toxic gases which are harmful to nature. Hence stopping developmental activities to prevent climate change is not a practical approach. In short, the issue of climate change can be addressed only if nations jointly formulate environmental intrusions. Data show that Chinese contribution to the agricultural industry is very sensitive. The country takes vehement efforts to save its agriculture sector from the anticipated future global warming issues. Recently, China has framed ranges policies including ‘National Action Plan on Climate Change’ as a response to climate change issues. Impacts of climate changes (global warming) on agriculture production As discussed above, agriculture is directly connected to climate condition. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that “climate change would affect precipitation patterns, evapotranspiration rates, soil moisture and infiltration rates, the timing and magnitude of runoff and the frequency and intensity of storms” (Lashgarara & Abadi, 2011). Probably, evapotranspiration rate changes may alter rainfall-runoff processes and progressively add uncertainty to relationship between hydrological cycle and ecosystems behavior. Researchers argue that the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide has an influence on vegetation and hence CO2 may affect both water availability and demand. Studies reflect that quantity of water use for irrigational purposes has dramatically increased over the last two decades as a result of global warming. The excessive irrigation is raising serious threats to ecosystems and it may also cause soil salivation over time. Although, climate changes raise potential challenges to water availability and irrigational requirements, the process of water resource planning and management still remains ineffective. According to a new study in the journal Science, climate change has stunted worldwide corn as well as wheat production since 1980 by 3.8 and 5.5 percent respectively (Seed Daily). Various researches conducted on climate changes point that this phenomenon cause wide range damage to land and water ecosystems, which eventually result in a loss of production potential in agriculture. Climate change notably affects agro-ecological suitability of crops which in turn would raise threats from pests and infestations. Economical statistics shows the fact that climate change largely distresses rural people since majority of them depends on agriculture for their livelihood. According to Manzanilla (2007), degradation of water resources, forest resources, fisheries and pastures and depletion of soil fertility lead to climate changes and subsequently to poverty aggravation in areas where people earn their majority income from agriculture. It is clear that agricultural sector cannot effectively respond to the climate change issues as they occur naturally. When agricultural industries struggle to run their operations economically, agricultural producers would hesitate to invest and risk their money. Sometimes, agricultural producers face financial loss as result of global market fluctuations. Under such circumstances, the prices they obtain for their products would not be adequate to cover initial investment and other operating expenses. Reports indicate that a large proportion of agricultural industrialists have already switched their interest from agriculture sector to other profitable business areas. In short, global warming and thereby climate changes may result in agriculture market failures. As we discussed earlier, climate changes forced individuals to engage in unscientific farming activities including usage of large volumes of pesticides and other chemical substances for their agricultural crops. However, these unscientific farming activities have ranges of negative externalities as they cause environmental pollution, ecosystem damages, and even further climate changes. The additional indirect costs incurred from negative externalities also threaten the sustainability of agriculture industry. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) (as cited in Scheraga) anticipates that precipitation may rise by 7% by the year of 2060 and the temperature by 5o C. Since the predicted temperature also rises with precipitation, the increased rain will be rapidly evaporated. From the context of global warming and identified changes, scientists also forecast dramatic droughts and storms over the coming decades. Such horrible weather conditions can wipe off agricultural fields from earth. Certain plants need specific level of temperature to grow effectively. Global warming threatens the existence of such plants. For instance, Florida’s large scale orange production is struggling to survive increasing atmospheric temperature. From the author’s experience, it is clear that temperature can have a great influence on the distribution, growth, yield and quality in soybean. Global warming and thereby decline in agriculture production would adversely affect nations’ overall economic growth. Global warming and agricultural production (Source: Center for Global Development) The given figure illustrates the impact of global warming on world agricultural output potential by 2080. This diagram predicts the agricultural production output variations with respect to current environmental conditions; it has not taken carbon fertilization option into account. From the figure, it is obvious that an average decline of 16% agriculture production may experience globally by 2080. The chart also reflects that African and Latin American agricultural sector would be dreadfully affected by global warming impacts by 2080. However, agriculture production in rich countries (or developed countries) may be least affected as they have better environmental safety policies. Evaluation and future plans Since major portion of agricultural production comes from developing and underdeveloped countries, they are more affected from the troubles of global warming and climate changes. In the case of developed nations, they slightly engage in farming activities and suffer least from global warming issues. Since agriculture is the mainstay of almost all underdeveloped nations, their developmental notions are greatly threatened by unfavorable climate changes. Rapidly developing nations like India and China show their excellence in agricultural production. While framing action plans to mitigate the impacts of global warming on agricultural production, it is recommendable to focus more on developing and underdeveloped nations. Environmental sustainability Environmental safety is the central aspect of sustainable agriculture. It has a positive impact on natural resources and wildlife. Sometimes, unscientific agricultural practices cause environmental issues like soil erosion or draining of wetlands whereas, sustainable agriculture ensures ecological balance as well as environment safety. It is strongly advisable for individuals to make a shift into sustainable farming process in order to improve agriculture production and environmental safety. It must be emphasized that no single approach would guarantee sustainable success on every farm. In contrast, a set of better farming practices which go hand in hand with environmental safety may assist a farm to attain sustainable agriculture. Healthy soil is another significant key to successful sustainable agriculture. Depending on the nature of the soil, it may take different time periods to build up organic matter and improved soil quality. In the opinion of Lashgarara and Abadi (2011), usage of nitrogen fixing legumes, green manure, and animal manure; minimization of tillage; and maintenance of year round soil cover would be the best practices to enhance soil fertility and soil structure. In order to achieve a sustainable environmental system, it is necessary to protect, recycle, and even replace renewable natural resources. Combustion of fossil fuels cause toxic gas emission which is one of the major contributory factors leading to global warming. Hence, development of potential renewable energy resources is the best practice to promote sustainable agriculture. Recently, researchers are vigorously trying to develop an eco-friendly and potential renewable energy source so as to cop up with climatic changes. According to Rath (2009, p. 32), use of Renewable Energy sources is a chance to combat climatic change and to halt it. Solar energy is an eco-friendly renewable energy source obtainable from the sun radiations. Any person may make use of solar energy because it can be stored with a single solar panel and battery cell. It is a convenient method to every class of people as the solar energy can be generated at home. Solar energy storage process does not release any harmful gas or toxic substance. Long life and minimum operational expense are other important features of solar energy. Effective governmental regulations may resolve climate change issues to a large extent. As described above, restrictions on burning coal, oil, and natural gas may be a good strategy to reduce climate change. Nowadays, many automobile manufacturers design eco-friendly vehicles which do not use internal combustion engines. Effective decomposition of waste materials especially E-waste is essential to prevent ozone layer depletion (C&EN). Conclusion Global warming causes far-reaching adverse effects on agriculture industry as a whole. The writer’s experience in Chinese soybean industry reveals how global warming and associated climate change issues may impact the volume of agriculture production. Human activities like deforestation and increased exploitation of soil and other natural resources can be the direct causes of climate change. Even a slightest climatic change may influence precipitation patterns, evapotranspiration rates, soil moisture and infiltration rates, which have a closer relation with agriculture output. Based on the anticipated global warming over the next 100 years, climate models point out that both precipitation and temperature will increase during upcoming years and it may eventually lead to a rise in evaporation rate. As a result of global warming effects, irrigation requirements have dramatically changed during the past decades. This condition threatens water sustainability and ecological systems. Global warming and related climate changes can be a potential threat to a nation’s agriculture production stability. My own previous experiences point to the fact that even a temperature rise by one to two degree Celsius may affect the yield of soybean, wheat, and corn. A climate change often leads to deviations in agro-ecological suitability of crops; most times, this distraction may result in increased pest and disease infestations. The fall in agriculture production rate has some economic perspectives also. Intense climate change effects may sometimes cause agricultural producers to experience financial loss. The negative externalities like environmental pollution associated with climate change further increase the cost of agriculture production. Statistical data reflect that global agriculture production may experience a noticeable decline by 2080. By adopting effective farming strategies, a farm can effectively check global warming issues to some extent. Moreover, governments have to realize the significance of agriculture production and formulate appropriate regulations to support the farming sector. Effective decomposition of waste materials and the promotion of E-vehicles may also minimize further global warming consequences. 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