Banking on a Beard Award - Assignment Example

Decision making process I have used a decision tree as a support tool to show possible consequences and also chance outcomes, resources costs and losses. I have used the decision identify a most likely strategy to reach a goal (Goetz T 2011). In addition, it is used to calculate the conditional probabilities. Before making any conclusion, I have looked at the scenario at hand and have realized that there are different points that my friend has not synthesized. It is also noticeable that the starting of the restaurant may be due to vague opinions.

This is so because research has to be carried out before undertaking any business venture. It emerges that Jennifer, enjoys her current career and her drive are to manage her own business. She is also inclined towards entrepreneur ventures and adds that it is a way of improving her personal value. Her justification and judgment depends on her desire to manage her business. During my analysis, I have realized that sixty percent of business ventures into restaurants fail within their first three birthdays.

It is also noticeable that if Jennifer starts the restaurant business she will use her saving worth 250 dollars. If Jennifer remains in her current job, she will be eligible for a promotion whereby she will be entitled to fifty percent increase in price. Conclusion According to the decision tree the probability of Jennifer retaining her current job as a banker is 0.333. The probability also of getting a promotion and termination is also 0.333. If Jennifer get a promotion after a year, the amount of money she will get, will be greater than any other option.

It is also likely that if she retains her job, she may also retain her current position as a banker. This means, she will not get promotion but, this is not a dreadful thing since she will earn slightly lower, than the restaurant business. She will also retain her savings unlike when she starts the business since she will top up the bank loan. There is a 0.333 chance that Jennifer may also loose her job meaning that she will have no earnings. The other option with Jennifer is to start her restaurant business; this may be risk taking since more than half businesses fail before their 3rd birthday.

The probability that the restaurant business will flourish with a huge success is 0.1 or ten percent chance. It is a pretty low chance to act on but if the business succeeds Jennifer will earn a large profit. The profit is greater than her current career job even if she does not get a promotion. The moderate success probability is 0.3; this is thirty in percentage scale. The probability is below the average or half. There is a large probability that the business will close. This accounts to sixty percent.

Jennifer should take caution when analyzing or rather making a decision whether or not to start the restaurant business. In order to break even, the restaurant should be big enough to produce sales exceeding $ 200,000 so that she manages to pay the bank loan, and return the money lent to the business and also get a substantial profit. Recommendations The recommendation that I would give Jennifer regarding her desire to quit her job, and start her restaurant is to remain in her job, and not to start her restaurant.

This is because in the banking job, the money she would get annually when promoted much greater than what she would get from the