Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles - Research Paper Example

? Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles Haider Cheema This paper will look into the claim made by Jim Berkland of being able to predict earthquakes on basis of Lunar cycles. The paper will be looking for the logic used behind the prediction process and what are the parameters for gauging success of a prediction. The major elements leading towards the predictions will be analyzed. Evidence for involvement of these elements or forces involved will be presented. This paper will look in detail the evidence supporting the claim. Observations made that link the seismic activity with lunar cycles will be presented to gauge the credibility of the claim. The observations that go against the claim will also be analyzed. Observations or logics by critics against these claims will be taken into account and these will be judged and arguments made as to the strength of these claims. In the end the credibility of the predictions will be based on the evidence collected by forces pointing in favor or against this claim. The paper will be considering the lunar cycles linked with seismic activity. Minor factors used by Jim Berkland will be mentioned but the main focus will be relationship between lunar cycles and seismic activity. Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles Introduction The earthquakes have devastating potential. The process is researched upon in detail and various theories and factors are presented over the years. The most accepted model for earthquakes is the theory of plate tectonics. The model, however, needs to be updated and many other factors contributing to earthquake that has been observed over the years needs to be incorporated. Investigations for involvement of new forces possible in earthquake predictions are under process. Some of the new indicators include the changes in ionosphere, radon emissions (radioactive element Rn 86), Earth’s magnetic field displacement and even animal behavior. These are just few indicators. Research over the years has and numbers of facts indicate the involvement of sun and moon in triggering earthquakes. As by (Pasichnyk, 2002) “In Tome Three, plate tectonics, more commonly known as continental drift, was discussed that brought forth the understanding that electrostatic forces are at work in producing tectonic plates’ dynamics. This understanding correlates solar activity and lunar phases and cycles with the triggering of earthquakes”. The subject of earthquake prediction, however, has been a matter of intense debate. There does not seem to be a general consensus. Different papers by Wyss (1997), Geller (1997), Scholz (1997) demonstrate diversity of the subject. Various seismologists base their predictions on different factors and observations. These predictions as per (Allen, 1976) must “Specify time window, space window, magnitude window, some indication of author’s confidence in reliability of prediction, indication of chances of earthquake occurring anyway as a random event and must be written and presented in accessible form so that data on failures are as easily obtained as data on success”. Bases of Predictions by Jim Berkland Jim Berkland bases his earthquake predictions mainly on the effects of gravitational tugs of the moon, sun and other planets. He also takes into account animal behavior as an indicator for an upcoming earthquake. Berkland has accurately predicted tremors based on these factors. His logics for the effects of lunar cycles on Earth’s seismic activity are discussed as under and each factor is analyzed in detail. Tides The gravitational pull of the moon is responsible for the ocean tides. This pull also acts on the crust; however, the effect is not enough. Recent studies have shown correlation between tides and earthquakes. Study by (Cochran, 2004) describes this relation “Study using global data hinted at an earthquake-tide correlation, suggesting that reverse and normal earthquakes correlate either with shear stress or the trace of the stress”. This correlation as per studies and observations suggest a depth dependence to the tidal correlation. The maximum tidal pull occurs at full moon and at new moon. Syzygy Syzygy is the method pioneered by James Berkland (http://www.syzygy.com) and refers to the new and full moon, and primarily depends on the sun-earth-moon angle. According to (Berkland, 2004)“The Earth and moon are closest together at perigee once a month. The Earth and Sun are closest together at perihelion once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occurs on the same day as perihelion”. This means that the chances of an earthquake are greater when the gravitational pull of the moon and sun is greatest. According to (Pasichnyk, 2011) “Earthquakes occur more often when the sun and moon are in opposition (opposite side of the Earth) or in conjunction (aligned on one side of Earth)”. Both of these configurations have greater gravitational effects. As per (Pasichnyk, 2011) “Seismic events on both the Earth and moon are so precisely timed that is as if the moon were in direct contact with the Earth; as if it were its seventh continent”. The relation between moon and Earth is not solely gravitational. Studies even show electrostatic relation and geomagnetic storms observed between full moon and last quarter. View of Critics and Critical Reasoning Many scientists critical of Berkland’s methods have reviewed and rejected several statistical correlations advocated by Berkland in predicting earthquakes. As per US Geological Survey the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though, the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes. As per (Berkland, 2011) “We know Earth’s gravity triggers moonquakes. I don’t think any scientist disputes that. What’s so difficult about turning it around?” To further argue against the critics regarding this correlation between Earth and moon that is responsible for earthquakes (Berkland, 2011) explains “The moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth. The Earth is an active, living planet and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes”. As per (Cavuto, 2011) “Jim Berkland claims 75 percent success rate in earthquake prediction”. Various studies have undertaken correlation between lunar cycles and earthquakes. These studies are not conclusive and incorporate predictions based on different regions and prediction methodology. This correlations between lunar cycles and earthquakes is not included in the current earthquake model which is based on tectonic plates and has not been updated. According to the Seismological Society of America, “For a statement to be accepted as valid earthquake prediction, it has to contain the expected magnitude with error limits, the well defined area of epicenter, the range of dates, and the probability of this to come true. The data from which the prediction was derived must be verifiable and the analysis of these data must be reproducible”. Jim Berkland incorporates lunar cycles along with other factors like animal behavior as well. His claims show good success rate however, the prediction process is relatively new and there is no consensus between the geological societies. There is no conclusive proof of these theories. The earthquake model is still outdated and research is still under progress to update the model as per new evidence. The earthquake process is not completely known and we are currently expanding our knowledge of this process. New precision instruments are used to record movements in the crust and the tectonic plates. Though the idea of correlation between lunar cycles and earthquakes is not new but there are many missing pieces to reach widely accepted conclusion. References Pasichnyk, R. (2002). The Vital Vastness - Volume Two. Lincoln, NE: Iuniverse Inc. Allen, C. (1976). Responsibilities in earthquake prediction. Bulletin Seismological Society of America. Cochran, E., Vidale, J. & Tanaka, S. (2004). Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes. Science, 306. 1166 Skousen, J. (2010, March 5). Earthquakes warning signs. World affairs brief, 7-8 Berkland, J. (2011). The official Jim Berkland website. Retrieved from http://www.syzygyjob.com//index.php Wyss, M. (2000). Why earthquake prediction research not progressing faster?. Geophysical Institute University of Alaska, Alaska, AK Schaal, R. (1988). An evaluation of the animal behavior theory for earthquake prediction. Geology department University of California, California, CA Prothero, D. (2011). Quacks and Quakes. Retrieved from http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/11-03-30/#feature LBG1. (2011). Super Moon to Cause California Quake? Retrieved from http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2011/03/super-moon-to-cause-california-quake-jim-berkland-prediction/ Cavuto, N. (2011). A major earthquake in North America imminent? Retrieved from http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/cavuto/transcript/major-earthquake-north-america-imminent Read More