People Making Predictions
, Book Report/Review
...molding of current information into future outcome, and this seems simple enough. That is, it would be simple if man wasn’t a being with emotions and subjective means of making conclusions, a fact which sometimes makes his predictions less like reasonable outcome and more like wishful thinking, as if the mere fact of us wanting it to be so, makes it so.... In my opinion, these examples paint a misleading picture, but an unfair one definitely not. All the necessary information, past and present, was out in the open for everyone to evaluate. Unfair would mean that crucial factors were purposely omitted, that for example, T. Boone Pickens made investing in oil seem like a solid deal, or that Jim Cramer...