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Market selection is when the manager is able to select among the assets traded in the market the lowly priced asset and sell it at a higher price in the future due to its rise in returns. Market timing funds in most cases moves towards highly concentrated industry, fund which are large and align to small-cap stocks. The decisions that some managers do make sometime do outperform the market while at times they underperform. This has raised the debate whether the manager’s performance is guided by luck or skill in the manner under which they arrive at decision making. This paper undertakes to investigate how a number of mutual funds analyses have faired in their performance in the past years from a given data of selected fund firms. Finance literature has two contrasting strands on how optimal asset allocation is arrived at. On one hand, the argument has being that aggregate returns on the stock market are predictable and thus, investors are able to reach at optimal asset allocation based on the predictability strand. In contrast, argument has being that there is minimal evidence that investors utilize the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in their asset allocation. Investors in the past have being interested in funds that have large annual returns like the case of Fidelity Magellan mutual fund which outperformed S&P 500 index for 13 years in its 11 indexes from 1977 to 1989 under the stewardship of Peter Lynch. However, a number of funds making outstanding profits have being collapsing and investors are in the present days interested in other dynamics of fund performance. The problem has being the difficulty an investor faces in choosing the right manager to out perform the market and maintain. This paper undertakes a research that focuses on performance of some mutual funds by market timing and security selection. Market timing means that the manager has the ability to predict price changes of securities and thus, they invest or withdraw funds in a timely manner from an investment. Security selection on the hand means that the manager has the ability to identify and select lowly priced securities that will provide returns in the future. 2. Literature Review Literature that has dwelled on evaluating performance of mutual funds has being very successful in the foundation of modern days theory on portfolio and how assets are valued (Guerard, 2009). The investors understanding on how to compile a portfolio by taking care of risk and returns has being contributed by Markowitz (1959) and Sharpe (1964). An investor will select a portfolio currently that is able to produce returns later. Sharpe (1964) in analyzing 34 open-ended mutual funds found out that the capital market efficiency is usually high. Also, managers are more interested in evaluating risk and engaging in diversification instead of evaluating on mispriced securities. According to Sharpe (1964), an investor is able to achieve any return on assets along the capital market line if he/she undertakes primary diversification at equilibrium because capital asset will have adjusted. This is because investors avoids risks in selecting among portfolios and are only concerned by mean and variance of their investment. The expected return can be maximized by undertaking additional risk on the holdings. Thus, in the market there will be two prices of interest rate and the risk price and for additional return per unit is as a result of ...Show more


1. Introduction A “mutual fund” is a scheme for investment which is professionally run by pooling money from many investors to buy securities. The mutual funds firm management undertakes market analysis that enables the fund to make a decision on asset allocation to invest depending on the expected return and risk of the assets…
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