Avian Flu - Economic and Social Impacts - Essay Example

The H5N1 has already infected 128, which caused the death of about 67 people across Asia. However, talk of a pandemic has been dismissed as doom-mongering by some. They take the example of Sars, who despite our darkest fears, only 8,000 people have been affected and 775 have died (Boles 5). Yet, there is the possibility that the H5N1 strain could, through genetic re-assortment or a more gradual process of adaptive mutation, become readily transmissible from human to human and become the basis of a global pandemic comparable to that of 1918-1919, the "Spanish" influenza, which recent research has shown to have had its origin in an avian influenza virus (Avian Flu Economic Analysis 3).

The impact of bird flu is very emerging. At first, the big risk was in getting sick. Now getting infected is not the only concern of many people around the globe, researchers have indulged themselves in getting information about its effect on the economy of every nation that has been infected by the said virus. The impending cost is astounding. In America, the conventional flu cost about $118 bn in an average year and an avian-flu pandemic is almost six times more deadly. Researchers at Nottingham University in the UK estimate that the UK’s domestic product (GDP) has declined by 8% and about 3% of total employment or 941,000 jobs has vanished away as many companies got bankrupt.

The blow on the economy has varied from different countries, such as Britain, Greece, Spain, and Italy who have been among the worst hit because of their independence to tourism. In Britain, for example, tourism drops by 75% leaving a number of consumer falling and sending global trade a precipitous downward curved. Asia has had its worst economic crisis ever. In Singapore, the outbreak cuts 5% of GDP as travel ceases, manufacturing slows down and quarantines stop the trade on its track. Hong Kong, Singapore and China are the most one who have been affected because they rely on trade and tourism and have big crowded populations. In Vietnam, some 44 million birds, or 17 percent of the total population of poultry were culled at an estimated cost of $120 million (0.3 percent of GDP).In parts of Russia, bans on bird shoots have been introduced and concerns about the flu spreading from wild birds could spark calls for similar measures elsewhere in Europe.

The chaos created by avian flu was huge and enormous. The impact is not only in the risk that humans could acquire the disease, but also it imposes peril economically, emotionally, and socially. The bird flu begins in the early 20th century and become endemic until this time. “Nobody knows if that ( a pandemic) will happen or not, but we are due for a pandemic right about now," said Dr. Eskild Petersen, a worldwide infectious disease specialist at University Medical Center, noting such pandemics occur every 30 to 40 years, with the last one in 1968. “There is a lot of uncertainty about what H5N1 will do. But if this is not the big one, there will be a big one, and with global travel the way it is today, it will move fast (McClain 9)”.What stands out in all the plans is an alarming theme - no matter how much we plan or practice, our local healthcare system will be "overwhelmed."

Countries all over the world are geared up for the control of the endemic disease. “To control the spread of bird flu, China has vowed to vaccinate all of its estimated 14 billion poultry (qt. in China to vaccinate 14bn poultry)”. Kuwait, on the other hand, has allocated $5.4m to purchase anti-viral drugs for its residents (Lethal Bird flu found in Kuwait 6). Businesses have started providing staff traveling to Asia and other affected areas with anti-viral drugs that are effective against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment, and a number of corporations are preparing plans for how and when travel by staff members should be limited (Madslein 21) However, there are no efficient anti-viral vaccines and nearly not enough to devastate the growth of the disease.

The Avian Flu can be compared to the flipping of a coin. There are two variables in a flipping coin: how soon it hits the ground, and how fast it is flipping. Theoretically, it should be possible to control these variables entirely and control how the coin will end up. In practice, it is impossible to control exactly how fast the coin flips and how high it flips. It is possible to put the variables into a certain range, but it is impossible to control it enough to know the final results of the coin toss.
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