Effects of the Voting Demographic on Politics in the United States - Assignment Example

Effects of the Voting demographic on politics in the United s The United s of America is a country of opportunity. Being one of the largest economies in the world, many it also has one of the highest rates of immigration in the world. The characteristic change in demographics from a dominantly white country to a blend of minorities and majorities has had a great impact on the politics of the USA. The political arena of the USA is dominate by the two main parties; democrats and republicans. The democrats are traditionally the preference of the minorities. Their policies and principles are oriented towards the rights of minorities. Because of these changes in the country’s demographics, democrats enjoyed a greater share of the country’s votes. According to the results of various studies, democrats will enjoy a favorable vote in the years to come, especially because of the increased rates of immigration into the country. Some of the leading populations in terms of immigration into the country are of Hispanic and Latino origin. The role of these populations has been widely felt especially in the 3 most recent elections. Democrats are therefore best advised to retain a hold on these populations. Al Gore scooped 66% of the votes from this population. This was especially notable in swing states examples being New Mexico. Cubans are not so keen on the democrats, a fact that resulted in Al Gore losing in states like Florida. This was one of causes of Gore’s loss to George Bush. The margin between the two candidates was quite slim but played a role in his loss. This effect was also noticeable in the 2004 election where George Bush was able to garner 44% of the Hispanic/Latino votes. This was a new achievement for the republicans. It was instrumental in his victory in that election. However, the republicans could not hold on to their Latino votes during the 2008 election when Barrack Obama of the Democrats won over 67% of their votes. The influence of the Latino/Hispanic vote was felt across several states in which republican’s George Bush won in the previous election in 2004. Florida was one of the most influential states during that election and Obama managed to clinch 57% of the votes cast by the Latino/Hispanic population. This win helped to raise Democrats’ confidence that had been lost due to Gore’s losses (Goldberg 17). The Latino/Hispanic population makes up 16% of the 312 million US citizens. The majority (64%) are whites while blacks make up 13% of the population. Asians make up 4% of the population while the rest 3% is made of less dominant races. The projected growth rate of US population stands at 19% by 2030. However, this growth is not evenly spread out over all the constituent races described above. The white population will rise by the smallest percentage at 4% while Latino/Hispanic community will rise by 63%. The black population will rise by 27%, Asian population will rise by 55% while the rest will rise by 53%. Though their rate of population growth is higher than that of whites, the minority constitution of the electorate will not be as great. Eligibility of the population for voting is the main constraint to their growth in the electorate. Most of the minorities are either non-citizens or under age. Research shows that almost 78% of whites are eligible to vote while the percentage of blacks is 67%, Asians is 53% and Hispanics is 43%. Though the population of Hispanics is projected to rise by 63%, the effective rise in the electorate will be at 4%. Their share in the electorate will rise from 8% to 12% by 2030. Migrants have a preference for certain states. Therefore, the increase in population of migrants will not be equally spread over all the states. The areas that will experience the highest growth rates include the Southeast and west regions. Areas around the rust belt and new England are not likely to experience much growth in population of migrants. There will also be substantial changes in the state of the electoral college of the USA. A classification of states is done according to the level of support they show for a party. A state with over 55% support for any party is considered a base state for that party. A percentage of between 52% and 55% is classified as a lean state for that party. A support of between 47.5% and 52% classifies a state as a swing state for a particular party. In 2012, the democrats had support of the most populous states in the country. Because of this, all their lean and base states yielded a total of 251 votes in the electoral college while that of the republicans was at 196. This left the democrats with the possibility of capturing most of the swing states and hitting the 270 mark. At the moment, Nevada and Ohio are classified as swing democratic states. By 2024, it is projected that they will have moved to lean democratic states. They will have 260 electoral votes compared to the 182 of the republicans. At this rate, democrats would only need to capture one among the six major swing states projected for this time (Hill 9). If the two parties do not put appropriate measures in place, the sum of lean and base democratic states will stand at 274 by 2032. Republicans will have the task of taking up all the swing democratic states and one of the lean states. Nevada is one of the most volatile states in the country and it will experience major changes political preferences during the next two decades. As discussed previously, the population of Hispanic/Latinos population is rapidly growing and is expected to rise by a huge percentage by 2032. However, the support for democrats among this community is not guaranteed to rise at commensurate rates. Republicans have acknowledged the increasing complexity of calculation of votes that will have to be done at the electoral college given these projected changes in demographics are realized (Watson 29). Basing predictions on trends of voters and population, democrats are more likely to retain the presidency in the next two decades. Evidence to support these projections can be derived from the events of elections since 1992 where all democratic candidates have won support in the same 18 states. An addition to these wins came from DC. One of the strategies that democrats can adopt to improve their chances would be voter education. Research shows that whites register higher rates of turnover compared to that of Hispanics/Latinos. They have to encourage the population to turn up to cast their ballots. The democrats have adopted a strategy that aligns their policies with the interests of minority groups. Immigration is one of the issues that the Hispanic/Latino community has. Their immigration status is a source of discriminatory behavior towards them. According to them, republicans have failed to effectively address their concerns and therefore, they vote in favor of democrats. The perpetual problems of illegal immigrants have formed a great point of concern for the Hispanic/Latino community. They want to see these illegal immigrants given the proper documentation and given citizenship status. Republicans advocate for strict measures against illegal immigrants, a fact that puts them on a collision course with this community. One of the strong points that republicans can use to gain support of these minorities is religion. The importance that the Latino and Hispanic communities place on their religion is higher than that of most people. This phenomenon is even more pronounced when considering younger people in these communities. This practice of emphasizing religion comes out of the community’s perception of most social issues affecting them. For this community, discussions on issues such as abortion and gays are based on religious teachings an therefore, they will oppose them totally. These are the same policies upheld by republicans and therefore, an opportunity exists for them to woo over the Latino/Hispanic vote through these religious ideologies. These projections show that the democrats have an advantage over their republican counterparts. However, the republicans will not just sit back and let them have the day. They must engage in various practices that will enable them catch up with thedemocrats. Therefore, though currently their policies rhyme with the needs of the Hispanic/Latino population, democrats will have to step up their campaigns to ensure that they have secure this vote. As discussed, republicans could use religious views as their window of opportunity to capturing these votes. A large percentage of the white voters are pro-republican. Democrats should focus their efforts to capturing the support of the white population. Research and analysis of voting patterns show that marginal increases in the level of support from the white community results in a large increase in the political power of the democrats. Increasing white support by 2% is equivalent to 10% increase in support of the Latino/Hispanic community. Swing states can be turned into democratic lean states if they concentrate on increasing voter numbers using any of these two approaches (Teixeira 10). Some of the white supremacists in the country have a negative view on the involvement of migrants into the country’s politics. According to them, president Obama used policies such as abolition of deportation for young immigrants to buy off the Latino vote. Some of these immigrants are now in colleges or serving the US forces. These supremacists propose the use of government funds to control the reproductive health of young immigrant mothers and reduce the number of babies born of these people. Republicans in congress sought to block the president’s move to make conditions favorable for Latino immigrants into the US. The republican are of the opinion that Obama came up with these policies simply to win favor of the Latinos. This is quite negative and works against their interests. It was a political mistake on the part of the republicans to acquiring the Latino vote by adopting a condescending and patronizing attitude towards them. This is counterproductive in trying to neutralize democrats’ popularity among the minority community in the country (Lilley 12). Obama’s dream act has provided a forum for unregistered immigrants in the US to come up strongly to advocate for their own rights. Much like the gay community, they are not afraid of the stigma and the risk of deportation they face by revealing their statuses. They choose platforms like public events to make their stance known to the public. Dreamers have even acquired the courage to show up in conservative states such as Alabama and declare their status in the country. They used campaign offices in other states to display their activism and force the government to establish clear policies on matters of unregistered immigrants in the country. Projections into the future are in favor of democrats. They have gained favor of young college graduates because their policies are favorable to their interests. Their share in the electorate is quite significant and has been experiencing rapid growth in recent years. This growth is projected to continue over the next 2 decades. At the same time, working class voters who currently favor the republicans are gradually disappearing and their composition is expected to fall by 15% in the next two decades. Looking at some of the strategic states like Ohio, the democrats are gaining ground in support. Obama managed to gather 83% of the minority vote to triumph over McCain’s 16%. Among the white college graduates in this state, Obama lost by 1% to McCain. With an expected growth rate of 2%, the Ohio vote is likely to go the democrats. Among the white working class community, the republicans were ahead by 13% but this is projected to fall by 3%. Pennsylvania minorities are expected to grow by 2%. Their vote was firmly behind Obama at 83%. The white college graduates in this state also favored Obama with a share of 52% of their vote. A projected increase of 3% is good news for democrats in this state. The white working community in this state is for the republicans with a share of 57%. However, their share in the electorate will fall by 5% in the next 20 years. The changes in demographics of the USA have clearly had a large impact on the conduct if national politics. Reaching out to the minorities is the new emerging strategies of guaranteeing win in the elections in various states. Politicians have started taking a keen interest in understanding where the minority groups reside in various states. The shrinking white majority presents the republicans with the challenge of trying to reestablish themselves in the country. Considering traditionally white cities such as Los Angeles, it is clear that the minority population is increasing at a fast rate. The population of Spanish speakers in Los Angeles makes it the largest Thai city in the country. In Queens New York, even the most trivial discussions require Spanish interpreters because the population of Spanish speakers in this area is quite high. Compared to European countries, USA has a higher appreciation of a multicultural society. Obama’s reelection can be attributed to the changing face of the American dream. Immigrant young couples with good education and jobs are gradually taking up residences in affluent suburbs traditionally the property of white Americans who voted for the republican candidates. Republicans need to address their image in the public eye. They appear as a consortium of old, angry conservatives who are resistant to change. During the 2008 campaigns, they called for tough measures to restrict the movement of immigrants into the country. Some of their policies could be considered inhuman. Of course the Obama campaign team used this to their advantage creating websites and using other forums to show the backwardness of the republicans. Work cited Goldberg, Jonah. Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, from Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning. New York: Doubleday, 2007. Print. Hill, David B, and Mary M. Kent. Election Demographics. Washington, D.C: Population Reference Bureau, 1988. Print. Lilley, William. The Almanac of State Legislative Elections: Voting Patterns and Demographics 2000-2006. Washington, D.C: CQ Press, 2008. Print. Teixeira, Ruy A. Red, Blue, and Purple America: The Future of Election Demographics. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. Print. Watson, R. A., & Thomas, N. C. (1988). The politics of the presidency. Washington, D.C., CQ Press. Wpes 06: Proceedings of the 2006 Acm Workshop on Privacy in the Electronic Society : Alexandria, Va, Usa, October 30, 2006 : Co-Located with Ccs 2006. New York: ACM Press, 2006. Internet resource. Read More