Political and Economic Challenges Currently Facing Libya and Impact of NTC - Research Paper Example

Describe political and economic (briefly) challenges currently facing Libya and impact of NTC. Discuss also future implications briefly. Make analysis on current situation and make short comparison between pre and post Arab spring. The Libyan revolution started in February 2011 in the north east and north west of the country (Nafusa Mountains). It played out as an uprising inspired by revolts in other Arab countries such as Tunisia and Egypt. The signs of a revolution first appeared when protests began in Benghazi following the detention of an activist (MacQueen 375). Unlike the protests in Tunisia and Egypt, Libyans took a different approach torching and demolishing government buildings from the outset. Within a few days, the protests had found their way to the capital Tripoli and other major cities especially in the north-west. A look at other Arab countries such as Tunisia and Egypt revealed an active participation of organized social movements, opposition parties and trade unions (Inbar 110). However, this was not the case in Libya, the long serving Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, had actively suppressed these organized bodies which informed their inexistence. Initially, the actors of the uprising were unorganized young men who acted spontaneously and lacked the social interactive forums as was the case in other Arab countries (Panara and Gary 10). Furthermore, these young men could not be identified as representatives of the Libyan middle class as the Libyan private sector was comparatively weak. There were two main reasons that led to the development of the uprisings into a revolution. The first reason was the regime’s violent response to the protests. Initially, the uprisings were isolated and the regime was keen on suppressing them before they reached unprecedented levels as was the case with most of Libya’s neighbors (Panara and Gary 10). The security forces adopted archaic ways to suppress the protesters which led to growing number of civilian victims. The more civilians were killed and wounded the more political dissidents, tribal chiefs and military joined the revolt to safeguard their families against the security forces. Slowly, the civilians armed themselves, and were later joined by dissenting military which further strengthened the protesters and weakened the security forces. The second development was the institution of NTC (National Transition Committee) in Benghazi in early March. NTC was largely made up of elitists who had defected from the regime and assumed leadership of the unorganized uprising with a promise of bringing down the regime (Inbar 110). The background of the Libyan revolt against ruler Muammar Gaddafi had little to do with the overall performance of the economy. The high prices of oil in the international markets had helped the Libyan economy prosper. Following Gaddafi’s decision in 2003 to give up weapons of mass destruction programs, Libya returned to the forefront of international investor attention. From that point, overall growth increased, reaching 10 percent in 2010. Libya’s estimated 2010 GDP was $71.336 billion, of which oil accounts for 98 percent (Inbar 111). Nevertheless, there was vast corruption and nepotism, at least one third of residents lived in poverty, the unemployment rate was 30 percent, and substantial income gaps existed between rich and poor; all of this helped fuel the resistance to the Gaddafi regime. Political developments From the beginning, both the political leadership and the forces that shaped the revolution were diverse and disjointed. The NTC was largely made up of longstanding members of the exiled opposition and had also created room for Gaddafi loyalists turned dissidents such as General Abdel Fatta Younis. The NTC also played host to influential and aristocratic families who had been isolated by the Gaddafi regime. This diversity created a clear split of ideas on the way forward, some of these individuals fought for reforms, while others only fought for inclusion (MacQueen 378). This presented a new political challenge following the fall of the Gaddafi regime. The political arena was altered following the fall of Tripoli in August 2011, the rout on military zones in Sirte and Bani Walid and subsequent declaration of Libyan liberation on 23 October heralded the NTC’s transitional roadmap. NTC had to move fast to prevent a power vacuum which would have translated to more conflict and spontaneity in civil action, something that had to be arrested (MacQueen 376). Furthermore, a representative government reflecting the will of the people had to be constituted as a reflection of people’s power and to serve as a symbolic departure from the longstanding political structure. Events in Tunisia and Egypt had been tumultuous but yet provided discernible steps toward opening the political system, the situation in Libya was far more uncertain. This was largely because of the nature of Gaddafi’s regime. In particular, Gaddafi’s rule can be best represented by an almost complete lack of formal political institutions, with authority wielded through personalized, informal links between local notables and the regime. As such, with the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime, there were no political institutions to be reconstructed and transformed. In other words, the post Gaddafi period under the National Transition Committee rule was highly fluid and uncertain. This uncertainty was amplified by the degree of violence that characterized the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime as well as the divisions between the various elements of the NTC (MacQueen 377). Politically, the transitional authorities had a number of larger conundrums looming even after the fall of the Gaddafi’s regime. The political challenges included the eventual incorporation of Tripoli and Tripolitania into a new political formula for the country, proceeding on a process of reconciliation, creating a set of governing institution for the country that would be seen as both legitimate and equitable, trying to control the proliferation of weapons in private and militia hands, and , finally but most importantly, resisting the urge to utilize oil revenues for political convenience and control-all of this in a county where political dialogue and compromise had been inexistent or unwanted in five decades (Vandewalle 208). Irrespective of these challenges, NTC envisioned a general election in eight months following Libya’s declaration of liberation. Indeed, an election was conducted on July 2012 this was the first democratic election where 21 parties participated. A total of 80 representatives were elected to the General National Congress, and a further 120 representatives were elected at the constituency level. Unlike most of its neighbors who had undergone the Arab spring, Libya’s elected officials were mildly Islam with the largest number of political seats (48.8%) going to pro-business parties (World Bank). The Islam Brotherhood sponsored party, Justice and Construction, won 10.3% of the elective posts. Though not without challenges, the general and democratic election helped shape the political environment by establishing political institutions which had not been in place during Gaddafi’s regime and shortly after the regime’s fall. Currently, the elected authorities continue to strengthen the political institutions while aligning the social and economic policies necessary to improve Libya’s situation. Economic situation Political suffocation and economic imbalance were identified as the main reason behind the Libyan revolution. Unlike most countries in the Arab League which were affected by the Arab spring, Libya had enjoyed a rather robust economy. However, this was not reflected in the people’s living standards as there was a clear cut line between the rich and the poor (World Bank). The Gaddafi regime had institutionalized nepotism and corruption, factors that ensured that wealth would not trickle to the marginalized groupings. Marginalized groupings represented regions, families and clans that were not politically connected. During Gaddafi’s regime, the country enjoyed a steady stream of foreign exchange due to its large oil and gas deposits. In total, the government generated 92% of its revenue from oil and gas. However, there was a downside resulting from overreliance on oil revenue as the country imported 75% of food products (World Bank). Probably, this explained the lack of basic amenities such as a shortage in housing as a lot of the generated revenue was channeled to food and coffers of the connected individuals. This created a recipe for the civil unrest as protesters rose against ongoing corruption and housing shortages. Another factor which created an imbalance in the Libyan economy was the absence of a private sector which would have heralded the development of Libya’s middle class (MacQueen 375). This factor informed growth in unemployment as there lacked firms that would create the necessary employment opportunities. The Arab spring brought about unprecedented effects on the economy. Oil production declined from 1.49 million barrels, which was the average production as at January 2011, to 22 thousand barrels in July 2011. The decline in oil production informed redundant GDP growth, by July 2011 GDP growth had declined by 60 percent (World Bank). Other sectors were also affected by the conflict. Overall production of alternate sectors (industry, tourism, and agriculture) fell by 50 percent as the conflict interrupted variant economic activities. Lastly, the conflict led to capital flight, Libyan citizens and migrant workers fled the country as did investors who fled with reserves that would have helped sustain the economy during the conflict. It was approximated that 600 thousand individuals, mostly migrant workers, fled Libya which marked the largest departure of workers since the Gulf War (1991) (World Bank). In 2012, the economy showed great promise as oil production rose and other exports rebounded at a much higher rate than anticipated. The rise in Libyan economic activity is expected to help arrest consumer price inflation which had risen to 16 percent during the civil war this is likely to happen as the Central Bank of Libya continues to mop up liquidity. Besides, overall inflation is also expected to reduce to 10%. However, even with the rebounding exports, the present government is faced with a daunting task of managing the aspirations of the Libyan people which were unleashed by the revolution. This development, and the growing expenditure, which covered 50% of the government budget read in March 2012 represent significant challenges which are directly linked to the Arab spring (World Bank). In summary, the Libyan new political order is faced with a daunting task of reviving the economy, building political institutions, and meeting the sky high expectations of the people, coming from the revolution. All the same, the assumption to power of business technocrats as opposed to radical Islamists may help in boosting the country’s economic position. This would also greatly benefit from the lucrative oil resources and the huge foreign assets approximated to be around US$170 billion. Works Cited Inbar, Efraim. The Arab Spring, Democracy and Security: Domestic and International Ramifications. London: Routledge, 2013. Print. MacQueen, Benjamin. An Introduction to Middle East Politics: Continuity, Change, Conflict and Co-Operation. London: Sage, 2013. Print. Panara, Carlo, and Gary Wilson. The Arab Spring: New Patterns for Democracy and International Law. Leiden: M. Nijhoff Publishers, 2013. Print. Vandewalle, Dirk J. A History of Modern Libya. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011. Print. World Bank. Libya Overview. 2012. 25 March 2013 . Read More