Forecast of Demand for Sun Chlorella Food Supplements - Research Paper Example

qualitative demand forecasting has been identified to work best “when the situation is vague and little data exist – for example with new products and technology” (SME Tool Kit, 2011). This demand forecasting shall be done using the following demand forecast research methods:

The jury of executive opinion

This aspect of the forecast was done by high-level managers whose services were specially employed by my company. They had to work with the top marketing executives of my company. Because the demand forecast adopted the qualitative approach, the jury of executives did not have to use any mathematical or quantitative data. Rather, they used their managerial and professional experience in the area of the food supplement industry. The jury pegged the marketability demand for the Sun Chlorella food supplements as very bright and prospective. Their strong points included the following:

• The increasing education on good health through nutrition has made the demand for food supplements go up over the past five months and it is likely to continue for the next seven months.
• The target population is females between the age of 35- 60. Records show that the female population between the ages of 35 and 60 in Eastern Europe and Bulgaria outnumber any population target group.
• The economy of Eastern Europe and Bulgaria is generally improving and thus any new product introduced unto these markets have higher chances of surviving today than it had six months back.
• The supplier company will take advantage of the technological factors it has put in place such as the use of websites. This is because accessibility to the internet is becoming increasingly potent in Eastern Europe and Bulgaria via the use of gadgets such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and the like.

Salesforce composite

The company has designated sales personnel for self-made regions for the sale of the Sun Chlorella Food Supplement.  There are ten (10) regions in all across Eastern Europe and Bulgaria for that matter. Each of these ten sales representatives was tasked to make projections of sales. They were to do their projections based on the experienced they have acquired in dealing with other food products that Apricus Limited has had to trade in before. Their projections were also to be guided by the opinion of the jury of executives. With the introduction of the all-new Sun Chlorella Food Supplement into the trade criteria of Apricus Limited, the following are the percentage increase in profit that each of the ten (10) sales representatives came up with.

Representative

Headquarters

Percentage Increase in Profit

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Belarus

Czech Republic

Hungary

Moldova

Poland

Romania

Bulgaria

Russia

Slovakia

Ukraine

12%

7%

6%

14%

16%

9%

8%

19%

13%

9%

Average increase

(12 + 7 + 6 + 14 + 16 + 9 + 8 + 19 + 13 + 9) ÷ 10 = 11.3%

From the table, it can be seen that the company can expect as much as 11.3% rise in its net profits.

Delphi method

The Delphi method was adopted not as a major method for determining the demand forecast. Rather, it was fused to be an evaluative method for the first two methods adopted. This is however not to defeat the fact that the Delphi method can be used as an independent method for demand forecasting because as Whonder (2009) notes, “Delphi techniques are used to forecast trends and the effects of decisions.” In implementing the Delphi method, a panel of experts including employees of the company was set to evaluate the results of the first two groups. In the long run, the Delphi method proofed that the margin of error from the first two groups was very negligible and thus the results from the first two groups could be relied on.

Consumer Market Survey

The final step taken was a consumer market survey. To ensure validity and reliability, the survey was tasked in the hands of independent surveyors who had no role to play in Apricus Limited. The consumer market survey dealt with ordinary users of food supplement products and their expectations of what they required from a new product or supplier. The consumers were also asked about their buying behavior and projections. The surveyors used a very large number of respondents. The results from the survey showed that indeed the consumers are ready to change their behavior to suit the introduction of the new product as most of them reported that they were ready to demand the food supplements as a healthy way of checking their nutritional requirements.