Lac Leman Festival De La Musique - Essay Example

Lac Leman Festival De La MusiqueBodily & Jenkins explore the role of uncertainty in decision-making in the festival basing on the statistical assumptions. The paper estimates the probability distributions thus making decisions of reducing risks while increasing the sale of DVDs at the concert. The methodology incorporated an analysis of historical data of the festival in the past fifteen years (Bodily & Jenkins, 2007). The records show the attendance witnessed in particular Saturday concerts.

The record predicts the number of attendees and by extension the number of DVDs that could be sold during the concert. An electronic survey is also conducted with a description of the DVDs particulars including the price sent via e-mail to past attendees (Newman, 2010). Of the one hundred and fifty surveyed only thirty-seven respond. Of the thirty-seven, only seven respond in the affirmative. According to Bodily & Jenkins (2007), the mean for the attendance of the Saturday festival was 24, 139 with a deviation recorded at 10,818.

As such, it is evident that the likelihood that the sales will generate sufficient proceed is low due to the elevated disparity level. This is representative of the proportion of persons likely to purchase the DVD, which is 7/37. The uncertainties are evident in the contractual obligation with the performers of the concert yet only a single month left posed a great risk (Auzias & Labourdette, 2010). Indeed, whether or not reasonable sale of DVDs from Friday’s concert would be made during Saturday’s concert is a concern (Bodily & Jenkins (2007).

The number of attendees during the Friday concert could determine the sale of DVDs. Concert attendees who could purchase the DVDs are equally unknown to Carla Monte.Decisions to conduct a market research to gauge whether attendees would buy DVDs were made. There is a follow up of the market research conducted that estimates the mean probability of an individual attendee’s choice to buy as 0.1892% (Bodily & Jenkins, 2007). ReferencesAuzias, D. & Labourdette, P. (2010). Geneve 2010. Geneva Switzerland: Petit Futé Publishing CompanyBodily, S.

& Jenkins, R. (2007). Lac Leman Festival de la Musique (A). Case No. UVA-QA-0707. Virginia, VA: Darden Business Publishing Bodily, S. & Jenkins, R. (2007). Lac Leman Festival de la Musique (A). Case No. UVA-QA-0708. Virginia, VA: Darden Business Publishing Newman, N. (2010). Good Music for a Free People: The Germania Musical Society in Nineteenth. New York NY: University Rochester Press