Operations Forecast Tools - Essay Example

Case Studies
ANOVA helps the manufacturers to predict the customer demands and requirements in particular markets. The results obtained help the Sales and Marketing Department to predict the volume of production and supply of goods. For instance, it helps them to know what type of a car model is preferred over the rest in a particular region.

The organization also uses correlation as a method of forecasting sales. The tool analyzes the variables that determine the sales volumes. It then establishes the relationship between the variables. For instance, the exchange rate of the dollar determines the fluctuations of the market prices. The correlation becomes stable if it has a position coefficient of 1, and weak if the coefficient is negative. If it is zero, then at that particular moment there is no relationship between the two variables. In the same case, regression is used to determine the sales volumes. Sales=Number of vehicles sold*selling price (Opsmgt.edublogs.org,).

The other company is Netflix. It deals with the online distribution of movies, videos, and music. One of the tools used to forecast the sales of the enterprise is descriptive statistics. The tool analyzes the trend in sales. For instance, it determines the number of videos sold via the online market, the frequency of visits by the registered customers, as well as the rate at which new clients enroll. The data obtained is used to predict the financial stability of the organization, as well as its competitive position in the market.

Netflix also uses the exponential smoothing tool. The device employs the principle of comparing the sales of the previous years. The organization uses the margin of error between the last two previous years to brace on how to adjust the production and sales strategies. On the same note, the moving average tool is used to analyze the trend in the sales volumes during the consecutive months (Ids355.wikispaces.com,).

Case 2: ERP in Mergers and Acquisitions
1. Implementing ERP in a merger or acquisition: Advantages
ERP helps in the integration of the activities of the alliance. As a result, the enterprise can operate as an individual system. Through this, coordination and flexibility are improved. It also improves the efficiency of the management and monitoring of the activities. The sales and marketing services develop due to automation and proper flow of information and communication. In addition, it eases the tracking of sales volumes and storage and retrieval of data (Proceedings 501).

2. Disadvantages
The purchase and implementation of the system is a long, expensive process that requires a substantial amount of capital investment. It is also complex and requires technical know-how and experience. The maintenance of the plan requires expertise knowledge (Ray). In addition, the workers must receive training and development skills so as to understand and sustain the scheme (Proceeding 502).

3. There are particular strategies that can minimize the costs of implementing multiple ERP systems over time. One is by developing a single system that can serve several networks and organizations. That calls for a network connection between the servers operating from different spots in the coverage. That can also be achieved by merging several businesses so that they may serve as a single entity from a centralized department.

4. If I were the Information Officer at Celestia, there are several factors that I would consider in deciding which ERP implementation to use in both Canada and Asia. These include the cultural setting of the two countries. The ERP adopted should be in tune with the expectations and demands of the local customers. It should also be flexible enough such that it can integrate the available, existing systems. Finally, it is critical to evaluate the probability of success of the ERP based on previous performance in other institutions. In this case, a web-based ERP would be efficient for success in the global markets.