Natures Response to Climate Change - Essay Example

GEOINT Assessment: Hurricane Sandy Hurricane Outline Response Introduction A hurricane Sandy is approachingthe East Coast. The approach is majorly unprecedented based on the historical record of the North Atlantic Ocean Basin hurricanes. From the initial assessment, the hurricane poses great danger. Not only does it threaten to destroy lives but also as the climate continues to change, Sandy is expected to merge with the wintery low-pressure system approaching from the west North West. This combination will prove a disaster especially to the infrastructure in the area going to be hit. From the analysis, the area around Potomac River will experience a storm surge; this is expected to cause massive flooding of the region including destruction of the Metrorail system tunnels and the South and North power station. To prepare for these events, which are likely to be extremely unpredictable, serious consideration of the nature of the storm is necessary1. This will be done while keeping in mind that the nature of the storm and its possible channels from previous studies may be erroneous owing to factors such as climate change as a result of global warming and the possibility that a second storm may follow augmenting the effects of the first or causing it to change direction. Evacuation exercise should, therefore, be done with proper expert guidance. My mandate in this preparation is to provide Geospatial intelligence report to help in the planning. This report will, therefore, be based on scientific evidence and deep consideration of the possibilities and impossibilities. The importance of this report is that it will help in the overall analysis and planning. It is however not free from limitations owing to the unpredictability of nature’s response to climate change. Nonetheless, it will be an important planning input. Mission Analysis Based on the current assessment data, the Sandy’s force will push the waves deep into the mainland for about 800 meters. However, this seems to be an early assessment mainly because the force has been increasing over the last few hours. The implication of the increase in power is that the hurricane may cause more destruction that is currently predictable. Current assessment indicates that no power plant is in imminent danger of destruction2. The assessment is based on the assumption that the hurricane will proceed in its current path. Flooding of the South Power station may however be inevitable. This will necessitate the station to consider reducing energy output to avoid massive destruction. From the same assessment, the North Power station is relatively safe from both the hurricane force and flooding. Other power stations are, as the situation stands, out of any imminent danger. Although this may be the case, there is a danger that the hurricane force will be increasing at a rate that is not predictable. This, together with the expected merge of the hurricane and the wintery low-pressure system from the west-north-west direction, may give the hurricane a different path. If this happens, the seven power plants lying along the coastline may happen to lie along the path of the hurricane. This will result in a devastating effect on many or all of these power stations due to the force of the hurricane, which will cause power outages, as well as the floods. Since these power stations were built at a time when climate change was not a big issue, the infrastructure was not designed to handle massive force as may be from a hurricane. The destruction is expected to be devastating. Of the seven nuclear power stations, Millstone Station in Connecticut and the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear plants in New Jersey are considered the most vulnerable. Flooding of the power stations will cause infrastructural damage and force the stations to reduce the energy output or close down. This will have an implication on the input to the national power grid and may live many places in the darkness for a long time. The infrastructural destruction will also translate to cost implication to the government. The worst case would be the destruction of nuclear reactors and spillage of nuclear material to the environment. This is life threatening an also a financial cost. The Metrorail tract system along the East coast and areas extending up to 50 miles from the coastline are vulnerable to the destruction. The force of a hurricane is expected to hit an all-time highest level after the merging with the wintery low-pressure winds. This will increase the flooding in the lowland areas extending into the metro track tunnels and stations. Repairs of these rail tracks will be costly operations that will implicate more on the economy of the affected states and counties due to inaccessibility of the major towns for the working community. From an analysis of the metro-rail track maps and the force of a hurricane, there is expected to be massive disturbance of the rail transport system. This will result from destruction of the rail track and stations along the Brooklyn-Manhattan track due to flooding, the implication of which will cause an inevitable shutdown and damage to the New York Subway System. The Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North Railroad will also experience damage that is expected to interrupt the transport system greatly because these are the two major railroads in the country. The Metro North for instance, will experience destruction of most of its tracks, with the most likely to be affected being Hudson, Harlem and New Haven Lines. Along the Long Island Rail Road, the points that are most vulnerable and for which immediate evacuation is necessary is the West Side Yard in Manhattan. The flooding in this area is expected to affect the Amtrak and New Jersey Transit, which is the share the same river tunnel. Real-time assessment of the situation under the Homeland Security and civilian law enforcement is expected to be less affected by the hurricane. This follows the precautionary measures that have been put in place by the authorities and in the manufacturers of the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) within the affected region3. These devices can provide real-time assessment from various angles and altitudes. This phenomenon allows the UAVs to give snapshots and videos of the situation from safe positions. However, the challenge will be the positioning of the control stations so that the devices are controlled from a safe place. Transferring the control stations to the Homeland Security headquarters away from the expected path of the hurricane will be a safe move to ensure that the UAVs can provide undisturbed real-time assessment for easier management of the disaster and successful control of damage. If the transfer is not successful before the Hurricane strikes, the implication is that the UAVs flying along the path of the hurricane will be destroyed by the storm, and this will affect the surveillance options of the Homeland Security and the civilian surveillance greatly. Real-time assessment will not be possible and mitigation process will be greatly affected. If, therefore, real-time assessment is interfered with, the response teams must be prepared to face the challenge of using less clear satellite images and footages to plan for a response. This will also mean that the cost of the response is expected to be high. A different option could be borrowing UAVs from different departments and civilians outside the region and using them for the response operations. As indicated earlier on this report, the power output from the stations is expected to reduce. Further, the destruction of the main power grid and transmission lines in the East Coast and the surrounding areas will cause considerable power outage in the community. From the initial assessment and estimations, the intensity of the power outage in the affected areas will be far higher that from previous hurricanes. The estimates show that up to 5000 homes will be flooded. This will result to massive displacement of people and probably loss of many lives. The destruction of the power stations and power grid is expected to affect residents in 15 states as far as Michigan to the west of the affected area. This means that an estimate of 8 million homes will experience power outage. In Jersey Central Power &Light Company, more that 2% of the power customers will remain without power for most of the remaining days of October and probably until mid-November. The estimated power outage will affect not only the domestic, but also the industrial operations leading to closure of most of the industries along the coastline and forcing others to utilize other sources of energy to maintain near normal operations. This is expected to cause a massive cost implication in business and affect economic growth4. Industrial response to the hurricane should be focused on detailing the necessary precautions and being ready to use alternative fuels. The industries along the coastline and those which lie along the path of a hurricane can be shut down in time before the hurricane force intensify. This will allow for the reduction in loss of lives. The industries that are likely to be affected include the power stations, and all industries in New York, Brooklyn, Manhattan and Jersey where power outage is expected to go for a minimum of three weeks as repairs are done. The authorities should prepare families to expect two or three weeks without power especially in the areas around the lower East Coast. However, the best action to avoid these challenges will be relocation and evacuation of people along the expected path of the hurricane. This will not only reduce the loss of lives and destruction of property but also allow easy repairs and control of damage. The power company can also cut down power supply to the areas that are likely to be severely affected. This will be a measure significantly to reduce loss of lives and injuries associated with electrical shock. Forewarning the community will also serve as a measure to enhance pro-action. Course of Action Having analyzed the implication of the hurricane to the power stations, the metro railroad and the population, the course of action is necessary. This course of action is based on the worst-case scenario. First, we should expect that Sandy would merge with the wintery low-pressure winds. This will increase the speed of the hurricane to about 75 miles per hour and the pressure to 1000mb. If the center of the storm is estimated to lie 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, then the hurricane will hit New York City at night5. The merging of the two winds will cause a hurricane to move northeast parallel to the coastline. If this happens, then life-threatening floods will be experienced along the mid-Atlantic Coast, New York Harbor, Manhattan and Long Island. The population in this area is roughly 3 million people. One thousand houses are likely to be submerged within the first two hours of the hurricane and with delayed rescue operations, and fatalities may hit over one thousand people. However, this estimate does not include possible fatalities in the sub-ways and the power stations. The best course of action will be an evacuation of the families living in the lowlands of the east coast and along the coastline. The nuclear power plants will need to be shut down before the hurricane strikes and surveillance operations controls transferred to safer areas. Displacement of the population will require able machinery as well as enough speed to make it effective. The supply of food and other human needs should effectively be managed, and the rescue centers identified beforehand. The population needs to be forewarned of the expected destruction and the intensity of the strike. This will assist in reducing the fatalities and casualties in that those who can move out before the hurricane strike will allow easy rescue operations6. The rail transport system will have to be shut down before Sunday. The importance of this is to reduce the damage to the trains and the systems and to ensure that the passengers are cleared from the stations, the tunnels and the surroundings before the hurricane strikes. Order development Based on the fact that this is an initial assessment, a deeper GEOINT assessment is required. This will however implicate on the cost in terms of material resources. First, the department will require installing satellite connections to the stations outside the hurricane prone areas. These will assist in the assessment of the progression of the winds and hence provide real-time warning and directives. Remote sensors will also be needed to help obtain information from the hurricane epicenter and around the storm radius. The sensors already on the ground are useful only to some extent. They are not expected to withstand the speed of the hurricane, and therefore new and more advanced sensors are needed7.Thirdly, automated voice commands devices are required to be installed in the areas along the coastline. These should provide two-way communications to help in updating the rescuers on the real-time assessment of the situation and to give secure channel of communication with people who might be trapped in the areas. Fourthly, the department will require new UAVs after the hurricane to locate the sensors and to assess the situation especially along the coastline and in the nuclear power plants8. This is necessary in order to ascertain the safety of the area. Read More