While analyzing any complex problem identifying the constituent parts is critical. These parts need to be workable and of decidable size. When the broken down parts get solved the entire problem gets solved. Thirdly, while finance and the monetary gains are the primary focus of the analysis, it would also help in realizing the advantages of cornering a dominant share in the market in Greece, dissuading competition and slowly easing them out if they do have any market share. Finally, the objective of the exercise would be to increase the monetary benefit the company gains.
A decision tree was done based on the case study provided and on the assumptions indicated above. Maximizing the monetary benefit is the objective. Therefore the factors that need to be considered for the decision tree analysis will be:
Based on the table above, the influencing parameters like price or discount factors in terms of 20% free capsules both amount to the same. And hence for analysis purposes, they can be combined and visualized. The monetary gain has been calculated and filled in based on the information provided in the Expected Monetary Value section. The decision tree is drawn based on this data set. The influence of the generic producers of Product X has not been considered as that is an in-determinant.
Based on the d
P: Probability of Occurrence V: Value M: Million EMV: Expected Monetary Value
(Please see calculations below)
Figure 1: Decision Tree Structure
Based on the decision tree diagram, four major options are identified and are analyzed for their feasibility. Further analysis is done based on these four for further fine tuning and