There are two theories that explain the out come of mid term elections. The first one is the theory of rise and fall of a regime and the second is the performance of the regime and the situation at the time of the election. Both the theories provide different analyses but you can also use a combination of the two for analyzing the outcome; this method is supposed to give better reasoning.
Analyzing the data for mid term polls in the last hundred years, the ruling party seems to have always lost, except in 1934. After 1940 the loss used to be 30 seats or more than 30 seats. In the midterm elections of 1946 the loss was as high as 46 seats.
According to the rise and fall of a regime theory, the strong performance by the presidential party in previous elections may cause a downfall in the midterm election. But this is more statistically correct than logically applicable. Generally the statistical details about the loss of the President's party in elections denote that the extent of the strong performance in the last election will decide the downfall in the present election.1 But the statistical details were the results obtained by applying statistical analysis to available data. Though all the mid term elections are similar to each other, each election will have its own significance. ...Show more