In all recent global downturns, commodity prices declined sharply (see table), suggesting a disconnect between commodity prices and the ongoing slowdown of the global economy. Much of the apparent disconnect reflects the fact that emerging and developing economies, which have been responsible for the bulk of recent commodity demand growth, have so far been less affected by the slowing growth in advanced economies. More recently, the price momentum was reinforced by financial factors" (International Monetary Fund).
An article from the IMF says that "In the advanced economies, headline inflation accelerated to around 4 percent in July, driven mainly by oil price rises. However, underlying or core inflation has remained contained and, with commodity prices now in retreat, inflation is expected to moderate quickly, notwithstanding the recent-probably temporary-oil price increase" (Lipsky).
Theinflation resurgence has gone much further in emerging and developing economies, although risks have receded recently. Headline inflation climbed to about 9 percent in the aggregate by mid-year, and a wide range of countries are experiencing double-digit inflation. Underlying inflation has increased markedly in these economies, underscoring their less well anchored inflation expectations and the capacity pressures stemming from still-rapid growth. But the balance of risks between inflation and growth is shifting for many emerging economies" (Lipsky).
The surge of prices is felt around the world; however it is felt more extremely in the emerging markets. In particular focus to commodity prices, "they have retreated recently, but are expected to remain high and volatile. The prices of major agricultural commodities have moderated, although the pass-through to food prices may be more drawn out than for oil and energy prices. Nevertheless, if the trends in commodities prices are sustained, this would help create new space for countercyclical monetary, and in some cases, budgetary policies" (Lipsky).
The prices of commodities are observed to be volatile, meaning they are expected to fluctuate through the course of time. Although volatile, the figure will remain to be high compared to the normal prices. This is observed in the data above, with particular reference to the Russian commodity market.
One significant factor in the determination of commodity prices is the prevailing price of oil. "Oil prices have moved off their highs, but uncertainty remains high. Crude oil prices have declined about 25 percent from the mid-July peak, but they are still about 10 percent higher, on average, than at the beginning of 2008 and oil prices have risen in recent days. Increasing signs of weaker global growth, indication of some demand response to