According to his analysis the funds represent a small fraction of the U.S.-managed fund industry, but despite this their net assets grew by 262% from 1998 to 2005, compared to a 10.8% increase in U.S. high-yield bond funds. There was significant public attention but academic research did not give much attention to the emerging market bond funds. So did the Pension Fund Manager who also did not pay proper attention to this fund.
I would have gone deeper in my research as Pension Fund Manager and would take correct and patient decision before shifting from the fund. I would also for a diversified fund investment rather than concentrating on single fund and suffering.
Similarly if we study carefully the Lazard's Emerging Market Equity Market Returns annually from 1993 to 2008 we can note of certain emerging markets doing very well. In 1997 Turkey, Hungry and Mexico returned more that 50% from the equity market. In 1998 Korea and Greece returned more than 50%; in 1999 Russia and Turkey returned more than 200% % and Indonesia, India and Korea returned more than 75% from this market. 2000 was a poor market but from 2001 the equity market again started looking up. By 2002 the return was very lucrative: Pakistan returning 150% and Check Republic and Indonesia returning about 40% and above. Minimum five important emerging markets continued yielding sound returns till 2007
The main problem concerns about reading the market trends correctly and selecting the target market with the help of proven experts in the market. Perhaps the Pension Manager could not foresee the correct trends in the market and his decision about investment yielded losses.
In 2003 the loss incurred was due to wrong reshuffling of his portfolio to US Treasury Bills for two years and Treasury notes yielding only 1% to 3% return. This is period when many of emerging markets Equity funds in Thailand, China, India, Colombia, Egypt, Argentina, Brazil equities funds achieved fabulous results with more than 70% to 140% returns.
Wonderfully his decision to go back to equities again was taken in 2007, which was the marginal year for the financial markets. From 2008 the world financial market collapsed and caused losses to each and every one including the emerging markets. Emerging Market Equity Returns 2008
The new Pension fund manager obviously has a great responsibility to earn minimum 7-8% on the investment and satisfy the employee representative on the board who is risk averse and very much concerned that the pension will have enough funds available for retirees.
1. What is your position on future growth of the US over the next 5 years, 10 years and 20 years
America's Wall Street has been the financial center of the world for decades. "When Wall Street sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold." In such a financial scenario there is need to examine the American financial market and its future. The current market is already depressed and the depression has been rated by most of experts equal to or more than the depression of the 1930s. 30s depression lasted for about a decade with intermittent recovery for brief period. The recession of 2008 also is likely to extend for a decade at least.
The dollar slumped to a 15 year low against 6 of