Quantitative Methods - Research Paper Example

The importance of the co integration concept in the economic literature is due to the possibility of linking. The linking is due to the information about long run equilibrium of LTK and LOBC. The statistical evidence of short run dynamics in observed series helps in estimating the integration between the values. The each element of a vector of time series need to have a unit root. If there exists a linear combination, then it is stationary. A non parametric approach can be proposed to study the co integrated system.

A discrete time p variate integrated process of order d with drift can be defined by square of Yt. Yt is the integration of values from Y1 to Yt. In 2001 the IMF board meeting held in 2001 paved the way for long awaiting IMF loans that have exceeded the limit of US$16 billion. These will have supplementary facilities also. The financial markets have been swarmed with a flow of good news and the application of banking reacpitalisation and the international cojuncture will be variables that divert the direction of the markets.

The redemption of USD61 billion of domestic by treasury and the borrowing of USD 46.5 billion has initiated the availability of investments for the industries. The treasury aimed to reduce the total debt stock to Gross national product ration to 86.9 percent in 2002. The previous one is 94.7 percent. This indicates the increase of GNP and a chance of increase of productivity and share prices. It is believed that the longer dated T-bills and other higher real returns around 20 percent annualized comparison to shorter dated issues depend on O/N repo.

This was based on inflation estimates and the moderate inflation resulted in increase of share prices and productivity. Though there is an intensive agenda the daily volume of equities in Istanbul stock exchange fluctuated around USD 400 million. This is due to the jitters over the political disputes that can effect the economy. As 2001 is a dismal year of performance the bench mark index of ISE eased down in January. This is due to the new letter intent coupled with the December inflation. This was posted lower than expected.

The result of decreasing of USD in 2001 did not interfere in the business much. The harmonization bill, the expectation of US attack on Iraq, the banking recapitalization scheme, acceleration of the privatization process and other various laws passed by the parliament are indicators that made the business grow. This resulted in ISE 100 index inclined by 5.3 percent in terms of dollar. The USD 16 billion and the IMF credit facilities resulted in structural and infrastructure reforms and resulted in private bank recapitalization scheme being most significant of all the milestones.

The rehabilitation of the state banking system and the segregation of the ailing private banks from the system reinforced the private banks and made robust step in banking reforms. The asset management companies were established and the hurdles intimidating the foreign and domestic investors were eliminated. The harmonization of privatization by EU has generated USD 1.5 billion in 2002.