The 'Great Moderation' in Output and Employment Volatility: An Update, by Evan F. Koenig and Nicole Ball , Economic Letter, FRB Dalla: Volatility can wreak havoc on economie. udden, harp up and down in buine activity can make it difficult for conumer to plan their pending, worker to feel ecure in their job and companie to determine their future invetment. Becaue of their impact on expectation and buine and conumer confidence, wing in the economy can become elf-reinforcing. Volatility can alo pill over into real and financial aet market, where evere price movement can produce eemingly arbitrary reditribution of wealth.
It' good new, then, that the U.. economy ha become much more table. On average, the five receion from 1959 to 1983 were 47 month apart, lingered 12 month and were aociated with a 2.17 percent peak-to-trough decline in real gro dometic product. By contrat, the 1990 downturn came after 92 month of expanion, lated eight month and involved a 1.26 percent decline in GDP. The 2001 lump ended a record 120 month of uninterrupted growth, lated eight month and entailed a GDP decline of only 0.35 percent. ...
depoit interet rate, broader acce to credit market through financial innovation like home equity loan, tighter inventory control facilitated by technology, and the globalization of output and labor market.
By improved monetary policy, analyt typically have in mind central bank action that repond more quickly and forcefully to emerging inflation preure, o that medium- to long-term price expectation remain contained.
Bernanke' approach to looking at the variou reaon for low long-term rate i more rational and reaonable than any I've een in the dozen of article and paper I've read on the yield curve. There wa one point I did diagree with, however. Bernanke aid, "I have argued elewhere that improved policie, which tabilized inflation and better anchored inflation expectation, are an important reaon for thi poitive development; no doubt, tructural change in the economy uch a deregulation, improved inventory control method, and better rik-haring in the financial market alo contributed."
I think it hould be the other way around and read like thi, "tructural change in the economy uch a deregulation, improved inventory control method, and better rik-haring in the financial market, which tabilized inflation and better anchored inflation expectation, are an important reaon for thi poitive development; no doubt, improved policie alo contributed.
He' referring to the "Great Moderation" in which volatility in the GDP and inflation ha declined. By improved policie he' talking about the monetary policy. o he' giving the Fed the credit for getting the economy under control. He' dead wrong on that point and I hope he come to hi ene and realize the truth on thi very important matter. The Fed, whether they realize it or not, ha more o been driven by economic factor, than been a driver of