StudentShare solutions
Triangle menu

Forecasting and Business Analysis - Research Paper Example

Not dowloaded yet

Extract of sample
Forecasting and Business Analysis

In order to plan for the feasibility of the expansion, they needed to forecast their sales for the period. As a reference to their sales forecast, the Recreational Good Retail Turnover estimate for 2010 is required.
The Recreational Good Retail Turnover (RGRT) dataset is gathered starting April 1982 until the end of March 2010. Figure 1 is the graphical summary of the data per quarter of each year. It can be observed that the trend of RGRT is increasing every year with seasonal peaks by the fourth quarter of each year. Furthermore, it can be observed that a linear trend is visible starting from the year 2000 up to the present, thus, these dataset shall be significant.
Accompanying the RGRT is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dataset is gathered from the start of September 1948 until the end of March 2010. The CPI is collected every quarter of the year. It can be observed that the CPI is also increasing through time.
The method used for forecasting RGRT in this paper is autoregression (AR) model of univariate analysis. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the AR(pmax) of RGRT is estimated. Lower order AR models are then determined until such time that Yp-1 is statistically significant or the P-value for testing Yp-1 = 0 is less than the chosen significance level of 0.05.
In order to corrIn order to correct for the seasonality of the RGRT dataset, a method of calculating seasonal index is applied, wherein, the average seasonal index for each period is used as a multiplier for the regression equation (Rowbotham, Galloway, & Azhashemi, 2007).
Other factors that can affect the RGRT are also checked for their statistical significance. These factors are unemployment rate, consumer price index and average weekly earnings of the population.
Evaluations of results
The unemployment rate, consumer price index and average weekly earnings are significant to the calculation for determination of RGRT forecast values. Appendix A shows the summary of fitted values for each factor. All factors show an increasing trend through time. This means that the increasing trend of RGRT is justified and it is safe to assume that there are no significant downward slope for the year to come.
The AR model for RGRT is determined to be in the first-order as estimated by OLS. The RGRT model reduces to Yt = + Yt-1 + et where the fitted values are = 760.6366 and = 16.8146. The P-value for the equation is less than the signifiance level of 0.05 such that the model is considered as statistically significant. Appendix A provides the summary of other values of the regression equation for RGRT. The plot for the estimated values of the trend component is reflected in Figure 3.
In order to allocate for the seasonality of RGRT, the average index per quarter is calculated. The index is computed as the predicted y-values using the regression equation divided by the actual y-values from the dataset (Rowbotham, Gall ...Show more

Summary

Forecasting sales turnover is an important part of business operations. Forecasts can be helpful in predicting the market behavior and the targets of the business over time (Kotler, Brown, Adam, & Armstrong, 2007). This paper illustrates a means of forecasting analysis using regression of a given dataset…
Author : vidal13
Forecasting and Business Analysis essay example
Read Text Preview
Save Your Time for More Important Things
Let us write or edit the research paper on your topic
"Forecasting and Business Analysis"
with a personal 20% discount.
Grab the best paper

Related Essays

Business Intelligence HW
Business intelligence is generally not oxymoronic, as it not about designing new ways of doing business. It simply enables a business to continue its functions by providing in time access to the data that is required. Many Companies use BI to cut costs, identify new business opportunities and to improve decision-making.
3 pages (750 words) Research Paper
Capacity & Forecasting of Green Valley Bakers
The concepts of capacity utilization and forecasting techniques are very important for any business venture. Indeed, an entrepreneur or businessman will only venture to invest his capital in a business if he knows and understands that it will give him a good return on the capital invested.
5 pages (1250 words) Research Paper
Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting is an important decision-making tool for governments and businesses as they project on the financial strategy and policy. Annualbudgeting and forecasting cannot keep pace with today’s vibrant business situation because the information produced is irrelevant andoutdated.
4 pages (1000 words) Research Paper
Development Appraisal and Cost Forecasting
As the developer has no financial costs he can calculate the cost of the capital in the 11 years break even period at the rate of LIBOR. This decreases year by year and will be nil at the end of 11th year. In case of June 2006, the cost of development for square metre is 27500 GBP.
4 pages (1000 words) Research Paper
Business Planning and Forecasting
The range for a data series is calculated as the difference between the largest and smallest value in the data series. In this series, the highest value is 1016 and the lowest is 32. There fore the range is calculated to be: As the data describes sales for each season for a particular year, with no sign of any multiplicative or exponential jump, therefore the additive model should be used to analyze the data.
4 pages (1000 words) Research Paper
Industry Forecasting
All these events have made life difficult for car manufacturers and it is expected that the industry will face more crisis in years to come. This paper will discuss the major trends that
3 pages (750 words) Research Paper
Types of Forecasting
Therefore to reduce the uncertainty in the future that can lead to a sacrifice in profits and at times revenues too, it is important for managers to forecast different aspects of business. There are various methods of
4 pages (1000 words) Research Paper
Business and Economic Forecasting
the wage rates will increase the cost of production which will lead to increase in the prices of products and eventually decrease in the demand of the products, hence the production will decrease. Same is true for the transportation costs (Hoshmand, 2009). However, it is
2 pages (500 words) Research Paper
Forecasting future trends in digital crime and digital terrorism
This is because as the technology is evolving, people are using these advance technologies to do unlawful activities and this problem will only increase with the passage of time. To know about the future
6 pages (1500 words) Research Paper
Forecasting key financial variables in Shariah Based Financial instruments
) function, a base historical data considering 12 months (n = 12) was quantitatively forecasted to predict the performance of the indices for 11 years. Results Evaluate that 3-5 year investments were more reliable than 7-10 year investments. Additionally, using benchmarking
12 pages (3000 words) Research Paper
Get a custom paper written
by a pro under your requirements!
Win a special DISCOUNT!
Put in your e-mail and click the button with your lucky finger
Your email
YOUR PRIZE:
Apply my DISCOUNT
Comments (0)
Rate this paper:
Thank you! Your comment has been sent and will be posted after moderation