Rising China or Peaceful Rise - Essay Example

RISING CHINA OR PEACEFUL RISE China parted the bamboo curtain some three decades ago. Since then, it has transformed itself from a 'Middle Kingdom'to a modern, developing nation of considerable standing in the international arena. China as a rising power, has generated concern in the global community, especially among the smaller countries along China's periphery. Ever since its emergence as a Communist power in 1949, China has sought to challenge existing global and regional balance of power, notwithstanding the Confucianist philosophy of harmony over confrontation. Over the last 50 years, it has not hesitated to use force, or threaten to use force, as evidenced by conflicts with Russia, India and Vietnam, and its aggressive stand over Taiwan, the South China Sea and other disputed island territories. China's rise can directly be linked to the opening up of its economy, which has resulted in a transformation of every aspect of China's interaction with the world. From exclusion from the United Nations to participation in over 150 international organisations, including the China sponsored and driven Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; from a closed economy to $ 300 billion in foreign direct investment; and from self-isolation and suspicion to one of openness and integration. All this has resulted in the Chinese economy becoming the world's fourth largest economy in 2006, with many experts predicting that, " the Chinese economy will be second only to the United States by 2020 and possibly surpass it by 2050".1 What does the future hold for China and the world Will a resilient economy enable China to ease itself benignly into the international power equation, being called a 'Peaceful Rise' by Chinese leaders keen to play down the obvious ramifications of China's growing economic clout Or are there any threats - both internal and external - to Rising China that can undermine the whole process, and the stated Chinese aim of becoming an intermediate developed nation by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China China's eventual rise to global power status and the path it then adopts to achieve its national goals is difficult to predict given the inscrutable nature of the Chinese character. Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment has this to say, "Will China's rise trigger regional counterbalancing The answer is "yes." The long answer is "yes, possibly"; and the real answer is "yes, possibly, but we can't be entirely sure."2 Pei seems to challenge the accepted hype over China being both the world's largest manufacturer as well as the world's biggest market simultaneously. Pei feels that China's current policies, " [are] spawning a dangerous mix of crony capitalism, rampant corruption and widening inequality [and that policies]adopted to generate high economic growth are compounding the political and social ills that threaten its long term survival".3 Be that as it may, it may be surmised that latent impulses to become a global power and a direct challenge to the supremacy of the United States would emerge as a consequence of its Comprehensive National Power, driven by its rapidly expanding economy, backed by a modern military machine. Internal Challenges to China's Peaceful Rise China is conscious of the fact that its geo-political power is directly tied to its economic growth, which requires a stable internal and external environment. Since the present global balance of power is not in its favour, and since this balance is unlikely to change in the mid-term, it has limited its geo-political ambitions while it goes about quietly building up its Comprehensive National Power. While other countries would seek to contain China's attempts to become the sole power in Asia, there are several domestic liabilities that China must address before its can aspire to that exalted status. These liabilities according to some analysts have reached, or are at the point of reaching critical mass, and under such circumstances, China might not be able to withstand a crisis situation wherein all the organs of state power are put to the test and come under simultaneous pressure. One of the reasons cited that could put a lid on China's phenomenal growth is the growing divide between China's populous and developed eastern coastal areas, and the sparsely populated, underdeveloped Western interiors. This divide is also characterized by the urban manufacturing economy in the East as compared to a rural, agrarian economy in the West. This has led to widespread income inequality, "with 1 percent of Chinese households controlling more than 60 percent of the country's wealth".4 Furthermore, this has led to widespread migration from the West to the East, "[with] more than 40 percent of China's population now [living] in cities or towns, up from 18 percent in 1978".5 Realizing this, China has made concerted efforts to develop its interiors. Large scale prestigious infrastructure projects have been undertaken to make the underdeveloped West an attractive investment destination for private players. Such initiatives, however, will take time to bear fruit and the existing inequalities may well increase in the short term, till such time that there is a discernible Westward movement. However, this factor alone in unlikely to have any impact on the economy as a whole, since labor will always be in demand whether in the East or the West. Of greater concern to China is the question of energy security. In order to sustain its booming economy, China has to have assured supplies of energy, and its quest for energy security is the key driver of its foreign policy. From being an oil exporter in the 1980s, China became an oil importer in 1993, as its economy burgeoned, and domestic production leveled off. China now imports more than 60 percent of its oil requirements and this figure is likely to go up to as high as 70 to 80 percent if China has to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent. However, the primary source of energy remains coal, with 75 percent of energy production coming from coal-burning plants. Fortunately, China has abundant reserves of high quality coal, "estimated at about 300 billion tons, which at current consumption levels would last about 225 years".6 What is required therefore, is for China to concentrate on finding more cost-effective and environmental friendly technologies to make use of this vast resource, thereby reducing its dependence on imported Middle East oil and the attendant security concerns. China also has vast hydroelectric reserves, "estimated at 380 gigawatts, the largest in the world", that have not been fully exploited. Several hydro-electric project are under construction, including the controversial Three Gorges Dam, which when completed will be the single largest source of hydro-electric power in the world, generating power the equivalent of several mid-sized nuclear reactors. Thus, energy security though a matter of concern, has been dealt with by the Chinese leadership both at the domestic level, through harnessing all forms of energy, as well as the international level, through aggressive diplomacy to ensure that lack of energy does not become an impediment to growth. Yet another charge leveled by Pei is against the neo-Leninist model of development being followed by China. As per Pei, this model, "practices elitism, draws its support from technocrats, the military and the police, and co-opts new social elites ", in trying to blend one-party rule and a strong centralized control over the economy with partial market reform.7 This concept is what Chinese leaders like to describe as 'capitalism with Chinese characteristics'. The extent of state control can be gauged by the fact that in China, the state contributes 38 percent to the country's GDP as compared to only 7 percent for India (a traditionally socialist economy) and the Asian average of 5 percent.8 Further, it has been reported that the financial sector is also passing through turbulent times with high non-performing assets, and a poorer return on investment as compared to its Asian counterparts. All these figures suggest that the Chinese economy is being mismanaged. However, had that been the case, China would not have registered a consistent growth rate of 8 to 9 percent annually over the past decade. Visitors to China are amazed to see the sea-change that has occurred in the Chinese landscape over the last decade. The poverty and squalor that is the norm in Asia, and which was equally prevalent in China, has been replaced by six-lane highways and gleaming malls. Per capita incomes have gone up. More importantly, there is a sense of vibrancy and dynamism in the populace, which reflects in their self-confidence. All this seems to suggest that contrary to what Pei and other analysts would like to believe, the Chinese economy is well managed and nowhere near collapsing. One has only to look at another set of figures - Internet penetration, number of cell-phone users, kilometers of roads constructed and railway lines laid and other such indices to note that China is far ahead of most of its other Asian counterparts. In fact, the strength of the Chinese economy should be gauged form the fact that foreign (United States) financial institutions are vying with each other to invest in Chinese banks. Citibank has bid $ 3 billion to acquire an 85 percent stake in Guangdong Development Bank, whereas Bank of America already has a 9 percent stake in China Construction Bank.9 Had the Chinese economy been on the verge of collapse, it would have seen a flight of capital - not further investment. In fact, by October 2005 itself, 22 foreign banks had spent $ 16.5 billion on stakes in 17 mainland lenders.10 One question that keeps cropping up is whether China will one day be forced to transform its political process to admit full-fledged democracy. The effects of globalization it was felt would result in greater awareness among the people, leading to a general clamor for democracy. However, "dreams that the country's economic liberalization will someday lead to political reform remain distant".11 Nevertheless, China has in the past practiced and continues to experiment with democracy, albeit in a limited manner. Some analysts feel that democracy as generally understood and accepted in the West as, "open competitive elections under universal franchise for occupants of those posts where actual policy decisions are made" has never been practiced in China.12 Many reasons have been cited for the failure of democracy in China, of which Chinese political culture and its illiterate mass of population stand out. Many feel that Chinese political culture which, "embodies an intolerance for conflict, a yearning for authority, and a stress on personal loyalty that all lead to factionalism", does not allow democracy or democratic institutions to take root. 13 Others feel that an experiment in democracy cannot be carried out because of the vast multitudes of illiterate peasantry that are incapable of consciously exercising their franchise. This sentiment was echoed by no less than Premier Wen Jiabao, who when commenting on a possible transition to democracy said, "China is such a big countryI think the education level of the population is not high enough[to introduce democracy]".14 However, there is a definite change in the air as the Party has realized that the people must be given some say in managing their own affairs. The Chinese leadership is not blind to the problem arising out of increasing aspirations and is only trying to find a functional model that can be introduced in a seamless manner without causing any social upheaval. Every village in China is now required to hold, "direct elections every three years for a new village committee, with powers to decide on such vital issues as land and property rights'.15 This process is likely to be extended to the township level administration in the next stage, as part of the Chinese effort to introduce democracy from the 'bottom up'. The shape Chinese democracy is likely to take is difficult to predict - it will eventually produce a version that, "Nobody need fear, or should hope, that China will become less Chinese for becoming more democratic", i.e. a system that truly reflects the Chinese way of life and philosophy.16 External Challenges to a Rising China There is great uncertainty the world over as to how China will behave once it has acquired all the trappings of power. Of particular concern is its growing military modernization program. China's expenditure on defence far exceeds its genuine security needs, when one considers that at no previous time in its history has China had a more peaceful and benign neighborhood. With such preconceived images of China prevailing, it is but natural that countries like the United states, Japan and India that are directly affected are engaging each other as well as other countries of the region, to cater for any possible future Chinese threat. Alive to this possible alignment of forces against her, China is also concurrently engaging these countries in an attempt to play down the possible threat of Rising China, through increased interaction at all levels including political dialogues and summit meetings. Some of the vulnerabilities to their security that the Chinese perceive is the fact that the periphery includes major military powers in the form of Russia and India, economic giants, namely Japan and Korea and the emerging markets of India and the ASEAN that are open to rivalry. China is also surrounded by United States military bases and alliances not only in the East, but increasingly also in the Central Asian Republics to the West. Against this backdrop, China has of necessity adopted a low profile, in keeping with Deng's oft quoted 24-character strategy of 'observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good a maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership'. Thus China seeks to change the perception of Rising China that is a threat to global and regional stability, to one of Peaceful Rise that is mutually beneficial to all, through amicable relations with all countries, especially Russia and the United States. It also has a stated policy of non-use of force or threat of use of force to resolve disputes and has a greater involvement at the regional and international level in order to allay the fears of the international community. A good example of this is China's engagement of the ASEAN, with whom it has a mutually beneficial arrangement. The ASEAN countries too decided to constructively engage China as the best way to reduce tensions and guarantee their own security. The expansion of ASEAN into ASEAN plus 3 is testimony to the success of this grouping. The next step in its evolution is that of an East Asia Economic Community, which was first mooted in a East Asia Vision Group report of 2001 entitled, "Towards an East Asian Community: Region of Peace, Prosperity and Progress".17 To further this vision, East Asian leaders held their first ever summit in Malaysia in December 2005. Such a grouping would lead to a combined market of 2 billion people, combined GDP of $ 6.3 trillion and a total trade volume of $ 2.2 trillion.18 The motivation for such a grouping stems from the fact that trade flows within member states and the immediate neighborhood have been growing steadily. With the addition of countries in the immediate neighborhood such as India and Australia, the potential of any proposed East Asian Community has received a quantum jump. Economic powerhouses like China and Japan will no doubt have a major stake in such a grouping but India too will possibly have a role to play as a counterweight to China. It is still early to predict as to how the East Asia Community will evolve, given that, "political relations between China and Japanremain precarious[and that]the U.S. has long viewedregional integrationas something that excludes the U.S. and undermines American interests in Asia.19 Nevertheless a beginning has been made and there is no doubt that as the region's most robust and vibrant economy, China will have a leading role to play. It is in this context that it is equally important for all the countries in the region that China remains stable as their economic futures are inexorably inter-linked. In the final analysis, it is unlikely that China faces any threat of imploding under the effects of its internal contradictions. China has its own share of problems as pointed out by Pei, but so have others. The European Union has to contend with rising unemployment and xenophobia; India with poverty and population explosion; and Russia is but a shadow of its former self. However, none of these entities are anywhere on the verge of collapse. If nothing else, China has learnt from the experience of the former USSR, wherein a rapid transition to full-fledged market driven economy and unfettered 'perestroika' and 'glasnost' led to the demise of the Soviet Union. China does not want to preside over its own demise and hence China is following a calibrated approach to change at a much slower pace than what Western nations led by the United States would like. It is this slow pace of change that intellectuals and scholars based in the West, with promotion of Western values as their agenda, (like Minxin Pei for example) are unable to comprehend, and hence paint such alarming scenarios regarding China's impending collapse. Bibliography A Chinese Coup, The Economist, Jan 7-13, 2006. Domestic Threats to China's Rise, Power and Interest News Report, 16 May 2005. Available at http://www.pinr.com/report.phpac=view_report&report_id=299&language_id=1. East Asia Economic Community: Prospects and Implications, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN Plus Three - Perspectives of Regional Integration in East Asia and the Lessons from Europe, Dec 2003. Available at http://www.aseansec.org/15655.htm. Economy, Elizabeth and Oksenberg, Michel, (Eds.), China Joins the World, Council on Foreign Relations Press, New York, 1999. Kitazume, Takashi, Political Power-Plays Cloud East Asia Economic Community Vision, The Japan Times, Dec 13, 2005. Luard, Tim, China Village Democracy Skin Deep, BBC News. Available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/4319954.stm. Nathan, Andrew J, China's Transition, Columbia University Press, New York. Pei, Minxin, The Dark Side of China's Rise, Foreign Policy. Tellis, Ashley, China's Peaceful Rise Panel III - Sustaining China's Rise: Obstacles And Risks, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 2004. Available at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfmfa=eventDetail&id=714. Wen: Too Soon for China Democracy, CNN.com, Dec 10, 2003, Available at http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12110/china.wen.rights.ap/index/html. Read More