Parkin and Bade go on to explain: A business cycle is not a regular, predictable, or repeating phenomenon like the swing of the pendulum of a clock. Its timing is random and, to a large degress, unpredictable. A business cycle is identified as a sequence of four phases:
Take United Kindom for example,since 1980, before 1992, the British government has been beset with up to 10% inflation race. "inflation is rising and the current account of the balance of payments is moving into deficit."(Sloman, J. & Sutcliffe: 2001). Since 1992, because the government embarked on a massive programme of reform of labor market, putting up the labour productivity; the monetary policies to halt inflation have been successful, the British GDP was with an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. But at the same time, "In the expansion phase, growth is high and unemployment is falling."(Sloman, J. & Sutcliffe: 2001). See the following data for reference:
In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent research institution, determines the official dates of peaks and troughs in U.S. business cycles. The following table shows the NBER monthly dates for peaks and troughs of U.S. business cycles since 1890.( Romer, Christina D: 1986)
During deflationary period, there exists a persistent decrease in the level of consumer prices or a persistent increase in the purchasing power of money because of a reduction in available currency and credit. This is the correspondence between different countries in the period of deflation.
Reasons of business circles
Why do the business circle occur
First, because the economy is disturbed. If the spending used privately or publicly increases a lot, there can appear booms. "For example, if the government spends a lot of money to fight a war but does not raise taxes, the increased demand will cause not only an increase in the output of war materiel, but also an increase in the take-home pay of government plant workers. The output of all the goods and services that these workers want to buy with their wages will also increase. Similarly, a wave of optimism that causes consumers to