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Delphi Technique of Forecasting - Case Study Example
My organization uses the Delphi Technique of forecasting. This particular method of forecasting takes the help of experts in the fields in making predictions for the future. It is non quantitative method. Since it is considered to be based on expert opinion hence it is more accurate than other procedures.
There after results are tabulated and issues raised are identified one by one. This step helps the planner to carefully study the various important issues to be addressed in the next round. It needs to be mentioned here that it is the same questionnaire that is given to all the experts in the panel. These days the questionnaire is sent through mail.
Now we come to the second round where the planar tries to hold a meeting with all the experts together and the results of the questionnaire are then return the experts. There are issues where experts agree where as there are some other issues on which they disagree. It is carefully noted by the planner and a general consensus is reached.
Finally we come to the third round where the various factors are reevaluated by everyone together and the issues are carefully discussed. In this particular Delphi method group judgments are more important than individual judgments.
Information processing. The experts collect the answers in the form of questionnaires and comments. The panel head controls the exchange of ideas among the experts by processing the data and deleting the unnecessary content. Usually the experts engage in disagreements during the panel discussion and hence it has negative effect.
Anonymity of participants. ...