The climate change debate (anthropogenic or natural) - Essay Example

CLIMATE CHANGE – A COMBINATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL FACTORS. My ID # BSc (Hons) Geology – replace with your programme, SEAES, University of ManchesterScientists and researchers believe that climate change is based on both anthropogenic and natural factors. While climatologists believe that humans play an active role in climate change, petroleum geologists and the meterologists do not [1]. One has to accept that hydrolic changes are an integral part of global change. An analysis of the atmospheric circulation data from the Northern Hemisphere reveals that climate change has occurred due to the changes in the frequency of occurence of natural atmospheric circulation regimes [2].

Northern Hemisphere warming may be directly related to thermal structure of these circulation regimes than to any set anthropogenic factors. However, this does not imply that anthropogenic factors do not have any effect on climate change. Based on the recent global climate simulations, and two environmental response models, the effects of natural climate variability and future climate change uncertainties, it has been found that human-induced climate change by 2050 will be unpredictable compared to the natural climate variability[3].

This suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed to the climate change in the 20th century. This is based on a comparison of observation where the model simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations [4]. While climate change is human-induced, the fact that is difficult to predict the size and consequences of climate change [5], suggests that there are incidences beyond the understanding and capabilties of the human mind and human beings. These factors reinforce that climate change is a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors.

References:[1] Miller, A. K. (2008) CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES: THE CHALLENGES AHEAD, Journal of International Affairs, 61 (2), 35[2] Corti, S. Molteni, F. & Palmer, T.N. [1999] Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, Nature 398, 799-802 (29 April 1999) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v398/n6730/abs/398799a0.html[3] Hulme. et al 1999, Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability, Nature 397, 688-691 (25 February 1999) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v397/n6721/abs/397688a0.

html[4] Stott, P.A. et al (2000) External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings. Science, 290 (5499), 2133-2137[5] Carey, J. & Shapiro, S. (2004) Global Warming. Business Week. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_33/b3896001_mz001.htm