A Confederate System in the GCC - Term Paper Example

How will a confederate system in the GCC serve as a tool of self-defense against foreign powers? A system of governments from different countries to cooperate in the areas of politics, economics and social or cultural aspects is usually referred as a confederate system. Even though a confederate system may have a central governing body for administrative matters, all the member countries will maintain their individuality and sovereignty. The purpose of a confederate system is to protect the political and economic interests of a particular region. For example, European Union is functioning as a confederate system to safeguard the interests of Europe whereas the confederate system in the GCC is working for safeguarding the interests of GCC countries. “The GCC, founded in 1981 as an economic and political group, includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. They chose a confederation system” (Hawari). The confederate system in the GCC has many advantages and disadvantages. The threat from Iran is successfully blocked by the confederate system in the GCC. The political problems in the member country Bahrain is currently causing problems to the stability of GCC. United States is looking for an opportunity to interfere in Bahrain as they did in Iraq. The confederate system in the GCC can do many things to bring stability in Bahrain and to block United States from interfering in Bahrain. “At the conclusion of a two-day summit held in Riyadh on December 20, 2011, GCC leaders endorsed a proposal by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to transform the GCC into a union of member states” (Al-Jayousi). This paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of confederate system in the GCC; How GCC would protect themselves from the threats of Iran; How it would help bring stability to Bahrain and How it would stop the United States from using Bahrain as a way of intervention etc. Advantages and disadvantages of a confederation  A confederation “Makes it possible for the several states to cooperate in matters of common concern and also retain their separate identities”(Advantages and disadvantages of federal, confederate and unitary systems of Government). Increased cooperation between different countries under a common label will always increase the bargaining power of the confederation. For example, majority of the GCC countries are major suppliers of oil in international market. They can control oil production based on the demand and thus control the oil prices in international market. It should be noted that if individual GCC countries implement their own policies with respect to oil production and supply, internal competition increases among GCC countries and other countries may make use of it. Suppose Saudi Arabia is selling oil for a particular price and UAE selling it for another price in international market. The competition between Saudi and UAE may help other countries to get oil at a cheaper rate. On the other hand, when all the GCC countries implement a general rule with respect to oil production and supply, they can control the oil market more effectively. Thus GCC helps its member countries to protect their business or trade interests. Immigration is a major problem in GCC countries at present. In many of the GCC countries, the expatriate community is excessive in number than the locals. Uncontrolled immigration is causing demographic imbalances in many of the GCC confederate member countries. At present, GCC countries are controlling immigration effectively with the help of strengthened visa processing rules. It would not be effective if GCC member countries implement their own ways to control immigration. Suppose UAE is liberal whereas Saudi is tougher in its immigration rules. The image of UAE will be boosted in international arena whereas that of Saudi would be damaged because of the differences in immigration rules. On the other hand, same immigration rules would help GCC countries to keep a particular image for the region rather than for the individual countries. Internal problems and political problems can be managed more effectively if a country joins a confederation. The interference of confederation will help the member countries to settle its internal as well as external issues amicably. The recent political problems in Bahrain and the disputes of many GCC member countries with Iran are examples in which GCC confederation interfered effectively. The major disadvantage of a confederation system is the inability of the member countries to react independently to global issues. Collective growth is the major motive of a confederation rather than individual growth of the member countries. Therefore member countries may sacrifice some of their interests for the better functioning of the confederation. For example, the major revenue source for UAE is business whereas for Saudi Arabia, oil is the major revenue source. If the GCC confederation implements any tight rules with respect to business, it will affect UAE more than other member countries. Same way if the confederation changes its trade polices with respect to oil, Saudi will be affected more than other member countries. In short, it is difficult for a confederation to protect the interests of all the member countries all the time. How GCC confederation would protect them against Iran?  Many of the GCC member countries have some kind of frontier disputes with Iran. It should be noted that Iran is the major force in Middle East at present and they are currently trying to develop nuclear arsenal. Many of the GCC member countries have some kind of frontier disputes with Iran. For example, “Abu Musa, an island in the Persian Gulf, is claimed by both Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The island is valued by these two countries for economic, security, and environmental reasons” (Abu Musa). Abu Musa Island consists of oil reserves and therefore both the countries are not ready to give up their claims over this island. The interference of GCC helped UAE to block Iran from entering Abu Musa so far. It should be noted that a war between Iran and UAE could cause immense damage to the economy and environment of Middle East. Iran has disputes with Bahrain also. Iran claims that Bahrain is part of Iran. Iran cites examples from Persian Empire history to substantiate their claim over Bahrain. However, Bahrain is not in a mood to accept Iranian claims which question their sovereignty. Iran’s diplomatic disputes with Kuwait resulted in the expulsion of three Iranian diplomats from Kuwait recently. Kuwait says that these diplomats were doing spy works in the Emirate. In short, majority of the GCC member countries have some kind of disputes with Iran. It is difficult for them to react aggressively against Iranian threats since Iran is stronger than other countries in Middle East. In order to deal with the threats from a common enemy, weaker countries often assemble under a common platform. Same thing happened in the case of GCC countries also. In order to fight against Iran, individual strengths are not sufficient enough for any of the GCC countries. On the other hand, their collective strength under the GCC label is enough to counter the threats from Iran. Iran knows this fact very well and therefore they are staying away from making any aggressive move in the Middle East region. The disputes between GCC and Iran have cultural dimensions also. Majority of the Iranians are Shia Muslims whereas majority of the people in GCC countries are Sunni Muslims. Shias and Sunnis have major differences in their beliefs even though both of them have common origin in Islam. The Gulf countries would turn the existing Peninsula Shield, their military cooperation arm, into a fast intervention force with higher military and fighting capabilities to repel regional threats and confront plots to undermine stability in any of the six member countries. The competent agencies in the Gulf countries will also unify their combat training and will hold massive military manoeuvres involving land, sea and air forces annually (Queenann). Because of geographical peculiarities and superior power, it is easy for Iran to conquer any of the member countries of GCC. It should be noted that Bahrain and Kuwait like countries are extremely small compared to Iran. Only Saudi Arabia and Oman are sizable countries when we compare the areas of Iran and GCC countries. Iran may get an easy walkover if these small GCC countries try to protect their sovereignty independently. It should be noted that America has strong relations with all GCC countries even though America is number one enemy for Iran. GCC confederation is keeping a strong relation with America in order to deal the threats from Iran. Iran knows that America is looking for an opportunity to attack Iran at present. Any aggressive move in Middle East region by Iran would serve as a genuine reason for America to attack Iran. At present America is staying away from attacking Iran only because of lack of convincing reasons. Everybody knows that Iran’s ambiguous nuclear programs are indigestible to America and Iran will be the next target of America. GCC confederation is exploiting America’s enmity with Iran cleverly. At present Iran is a common enemy for both America and GCC countries. In short, GCC confederation is smartly exploiting America’s anti-Iranian stand to protect their interests. How GCC confederation would help bring stability to Bahrain?  Internal agitations in Bahrain, is a big problem for GCC confederation. Political agitations in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt resulted in the expulsion of dictator administrations in those countries. None of the GCC countries have any democratic administrations. As in the case of Libya and Egypt, Islamic dictators are ruling in GCC countries by cleverly exploiting religious beliefs in their favor. Islamic dictators always spread the message that democracy is an enemy of Islam and therefore it should be blocked at any cost. They often argue that America is trying to interfere in Islamic countries in the name of spreading of democracy. Bahrain agitations should be analyzed based on the above context as any changes happening in Bahrain may affect all the other member countries of GCC also. As mentioned earlier, Bahrain is only a small state in which the population size is around 500000 only. Around 100000 Bahrainis joined political agitations against the existing government recently. The above figures clearly suggest that it would not be easy for GCC confederation to bring stability in Bahrain. Using forces to suppress internal agitations in Bahrain is not the proper way to deal this problem. Violence against peaceful agitators by military is against the norms of all international laws. GCC do not like to use forces to calm down agitators in Bahrain as such drastic moves may bring more international attention in this region. Moreover, such moves will destroy GCC relations with America also. In short, GCC confederation is currently in a dilemma in deciding a settlement to Bahraini problems. “The unrest in Bahrain is especially a matter of concern for the United States as their 5th fleet is stationed there. Nevertheless, Washington is calling for restraint on actions against the protestors, who want greater political freedom” (Chowdhury). America has a strong military base in Bahrain and they also like to settle civilian unrest in Bahrain as quickly as possible. Bahrain should provide more freedom and authorities to the people. It is difficult for dictators to suppress the interests of the people for a longer period. GCC leaders should realize these facts and they should show more acceptance tolerance towards the demands of the people. The lessons from Egypt and Libya should serve as an eye opener to GCC leaders. The strategy of exploitation of religious beliefs for political gains may not work in GCC countries anymore. The spreading of social networks helped people in GCC countries to interact freely with westerners and to realize the depth of problems facing by them in their home country. GCC leaders should react positively to the changes happening in the world and they should implement more political and economic reforms in their countries to satisfy the people. In order to bring stability in Bahrain and also in other GCC countries, democratization is the only way. How GCC confederation would stop the United States from using Bahrain as a way of intervention? As mentioned earlier, America always likes to keep a stronghold in Middle East matters. Iraq was the number one challenger of America once; however, after Saddam’s execution, an American led toy government is currently in place in Iraq. Gaddafi was another dictator who caused problems to America in the past. That problem is also over for America now. All the GCC countries are in better relations with America at present. Only Iran is currently causing any problems to America. America cannot stay away from interfering in Middle East matters. The major challenges America may face in future could be energy crisis and scarcity of drinking water. The strategic relations with Middle East are essential for America to protect their interests in future. Even though all the GCC leaders are keeping better relations with America, they are doing so only to protect their interests. Only at the surface level they keep better relations with America. However, in the grass root level, they are also enemies of America because of cultural reasons. The war on terror, pro-Israeli stand and anti-Muslim stand of America are indigestible to the GCC leaders also. But, they are keeping silence over these issues in order to avoid America’s displeasure. Arabs do believe that America is currently engaged in an effort to baptize the Muslim world. America’s strong relations with Israel are unacceptable to Arab world. They often argue that America is keeping double standards in its foreign policies with respect to Arabs and Israelis. GCC leaders know all these facts very well. They know that America is slowly expanding their control in the Middle East region and it would be difficult for them to counter the threats from America. In all probabilities, the civilian unrests in Bahrain may spread to other GCC countries also. In fact GCC countries have not many choices to stop the United States from using Bahrain as a way of intervention. Unlike Iran, they do not have enough power or military strength to challenge the intervention of America. Moreover, threats from Iran made it inevitable for GCC confederation to keep its better relations with America. Only through diplomatic measures, GCC confederation can make sure that America is not catching fishes in the muddy water. To conclude, GCC confederation is helpful for the member countries to effectively counter the challenges they are facing. Except Saudi Arabia, other member countries in GCC are small in size. Moreover, individual military strengths of GCC member countries are negligible. On the other hand, collective military strengths of GCC countries are capable of dealing at least with the regional disputes. Iran is the strongest regional enemy for GCC countries. Iran’s threats are currently dealt by GCC confederation with the help of America. Bahraini political agitations are causing problems to other GCC member countries also. In every probability, Bahraini agitations have the potential to spread to the territories of other GCC member countries also. America is looking for opportunities to expand their strongholds in Middle East. The success of GCC confederation will depend on how well it will be able to deal with the challenges from America and Iran and also the challenges from political unrest in its member countries. Works Cited Al-Jayousi, Mohammed. “Proposed Gulf Union To Protect Member States From Common Threats” 2011. Web. 12 February 2012. “Advantages And Disadvantages Of Federal, Confederate And Unitary Systems Of Government”. n.d. Web. 12 February 2012. “Abu Musa”. n.d. Web. 12 February 2012. Chowdhury, Zaglul Ahmed. “Another "Friday Rage" Escalates Pro-Democracy Agitation”. Web. 12 February 2012. Hawari, Walaa. “GCC Confederation Ideal Choice: Political Analyst”. 2011. Arab News Dec 22, 2011. Web. 12 February 2012. Queenann, Gavriel. 2011. “The Six GCC Members Want A Diplomatic, Military Confederation”. Web. 12 February 2012. Read More