Demography Transition Theory and Its Implications - Coursework Example

Demography and Health: Population Theory Demography transition theory and its implications: The population growth and study on the various repercussions can be checked through the demographic transition theory. It provides the overview of the various stages that is prevailing in one or the other form in each country. Dr. Eberstadt provided insight on the global demographic population trends. In 1929, Warren Thompson, specified that there are three different stages to population growth. They were categorized into each group. Demographic Transition model Table Source: www.bbc.co.uk Group A: In pre industrial society, the birth and death rates were high. The family planning methods did not exist that leads to increase in the number of child bearing women and there were no proper health treatments and causes high death ratio. Russia is one of the world’s largest countries. It has a population around 143 million people. It has enormous natural resources and is under Presidential rule. The first stage can be the perfect example for the Russian population. Alcohol related deaths are common and due to these high rates of alcoholism and economic hardship the women are less inclined towards child bearing. The immigration level is also low. Due to the economic conditions and less health facilities there are major drop in the population rate. Russian President Vladimir Putin has implemented certain policies in the form of incentives for the couples who have a second child. This can increase the birth rate. This has to be dealt in a serious manner. Group B: Under this a trend of falling death rates and increase in population is noticed. This could have major impact as the young age group increase in number rapidly. It can be headed towards the major progress and can have great positive response with certain precautionary measures. Group C: The birth or death rates are not under control. The health factor has major change as it can be diagnosed with various treatments that decrease the death rate. The family planning methods are widely used and it makes the process of fertility denial much easy. The impact of the Group B and C is seen in many major countries. There are various factors that have brought in this revolution and some of them can be listed as below. 1. The new idea of small family in the urban industrial society. 2. Compulsory education for the children. 3. Effective techniques of fertility reduction are available. 4. Most of the women are working and are independent from other household obligations. It becomes important to manage the child and the work and keep balancing which may not be possible with many children. 5. Fertility decline can be based on socio economic and demographic conditions. It is majorly from the individual perspective. But it may not be able to cope up with the present conditions. There are countries like China which have brought in new rules as one child per family that makes the process of child bearing even more stringent. It is to control the increasing population. These factors lead to have control in the population level. These can from the four surprises such as, declining fertility rate as in Russia Gender imbalance in China Mortality rates dripping Immigration from Mexico The mortality transition has spread through most of the world. Life expectancy in industrial high-income countries is now between 75 and 80 years. The fertility transition has reached every major region. This can be seen in many countries like the Arab Muslim countries, Afghanistan and so forth. The current era is heading towards controlling the over population and shrinking the prospective workers. In the wider sense, the inhabitants who would be in the world already would exist. It would become important for the existing people to adapt to changes in their lifestyles, business practices and other policies. The increase in the life span has increased the population growth. Life span: In 1900’s the life span was around 35 years and by 2000 it raised to 65 years. The major reason was due to the health explosion. According to the United Nations Population Division and the U.S. Census the births rate per woman has decreased from 5 to 2.5 percent. Income group: In most of the developed countries there is sub- replacement fertility. They have around one fifths’ of the world’s population. There are countries like China which has one child policy are adapted it has its own disadvantages. The income group may gradually decrease. According to the U.S. Census Bureau projections the working age by 2030 will be around 900 million people. In the recent trend the working age group is more in India and China .It is estimated that over the next two decades that Pakistan, Bangladesh, sub Saharan Africa would contribute to half the working age population. Education qualification: If we look at the figure of the age group of 25 -29 who have the qualification and better knowledge it is going to be increased only by 4% and 70% is going to be the middle age group. This shows that in the developed economies due to their procedures of reducing population, are going to face major shrinkage in the working group. Older group: This in turn leads to increase in the older segment group to prevail. They may be employed but the work efficiency is going to be less when compared to young people. China has no National pension system and the old age group is going to drastically increase. The ratio of marriages also is questionable as it is 1 per child the boys and the girl’s ratio is going to clash. The prospective global work force would be more educated and fit physically and mentally which can increase their efficiency and increase the productivity pattern. The demographic transition theory is practiced by U.S. and this is clearly seen with the initiative that has been taken from the above points discussed briefly. The future of United States is heading towards continuous increase in population though there are fertility decline with less impact upon immigrants .The health factors have to be up to the mark as set for the standards of the lifestyle and creates the need for the infrastructure. When we check the statistics projected by the U.S. Census Bureau, we have the following estimation and they say, Table Source: www.bbc.co.uk “United States of America is 3rd highest populated country with having population of 313,232,044 people and expected to reach up to 439,010,253 people in 2050. This is a country where people are living and enjoying the standard life. With increasing in population the people are happy from the Government what they are doing for them.”(Gettoptens.com, 2012) Reference Eberstadt, Nicholas. The Demographic Future, What population Growth-Means for the Global Economy, Foreign Affairs, Volume 89 no. 6 , pg 1-64. http://amplios.net/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/Population_Decline.18721106.pdf Goldstone, Jack A. The New Population Bomb, The Four Megatrends that will change the World, Foreign Affairs,31-43 ,January 2010. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65735/jack-a-goldstone/the-new-population-bomb Hardy, Mac. Get Top Tens.com, Top 10 most populated countries in 2012, (2012). http://gettoptens.com/top-10-most-populated-countries-in-2012/ Internet World stats, Top Ten Countries with the highest population, Miniwatts Marketing Group, 2012. http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats8.htm Population change and structure, Global population growth, Table - World population growth 500BC – 2025, Table - The demographic transition model, BBC, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/population_change_structure_rev4.shtml Putin vows to halt Russia's population plunge with babies, immigrants, The Christian Science Monitor. Pg -2.http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2012/0214/Putin-vows-to-halt-Russia-s-population-plunge-with-babies-immigrants/(page)/2 Rosenberg, Matt .Population Decline in Russia, The New York Times Company, 2012. http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/russiapop.htm Uhlenberg, Peter. Children in Aging Society, The Gerontological Society of America, The Oxford University Press, 2012. 489- 496. http://psychsocgerontology.oxfordjournals.org/content/64B/4/489.abstract Read More