Creating Value along the Supply Chain - Essay Example

Time-series methods are most popular since they are somewhat simple to use and comprehend especially for short-range forecasting.TIME SERIES METHOD: MOVING AVERAGEThe following is the historical data provided for the bookstore student computer purchase.YEARCOMPUTER SALESBased on the data provided, the following graph represents the Moving average for the years.Therefore, using the historical data provided, the forecast from the excel auto forecast is 592.3186813 units. The moving average method is easy to use and understand though one cannot use it to forecast automatically using excel.

The accuracy of the moving average is distinct therefore it can be relied upon by organizations for their various operational planning processes.OTHER APPROPRIATE FORECASTING METHODSSince there are various forecasting methods, in case one type of method doesn’t provide precise information, then it is advisable that one tries various forecasting methods until the accurate forecast is obtained.There are other forecast methods that can be used with the historical data for the bookstore management.

For instance, linear trend lines and exponential smoothing can also be used since they are popular for short-range, somewhat easy to employ, and comprehend. CONCLUSIONThe time series techniques that are used for forecasting are somewhat easy to employ, comprehend, and are less costly depending on the considerable amount of historical data provided. It should be noted that when forecasting methods are first initiated to individuals, the lack of forecast preciseness comes as a surprise or disappointment to the individuals (Operations Management: Creating Value Along the Supply Chain, 2012).

Therefore, with more learning and experience, one is able to know that forecasting is not simple and does not provide precise information though with the increase in knowledge and skill, companies that are able to have more defined forecasts have an added advantage against their competitors (Operations Management: Creating Value Along the Supply Chain, 2012).