Analyzing Inductive Arguments - Essay Example

Analyzing Inductive Arguments In the history of America, presidential polls have attracted dozens of opinion polls that aim at investigating the trend of politics, and the final most likely decision the voters would most likely make in the polls. Pollsters though employing scientific approaches in designing and carrying out such polls are in most cases subjective; some degree of biasness never fails to inform the entire polling process. An example of these is the Pew Research Center poll and the Rasmussen opinion poll, two opinion polls that have some degree of variance and biasness towards the presidential candidates.

All in all, biasness towards a candidate results in a deviating opinion poll that presets results that are far from the reality on the ground. One of the main question asked in the two polls is “whom would you vote as your president?” among other questions. Rasmussen had a sample population of 1000 people each day, to make about 3000 in a three day rolling average (Paulson, 2012). On the other hand, Pew Research had a sample size of 3,815 voters in a poll conducted between Oct 31 and Nov 3 (Kohut, Dorothy and Keeter, 2012).

Both the polls were therefore carried out at close dates towards the election date. The Pew research survey included both females and males between the ages of 18 years and above 55 years, and was carried out through the phone. Rasmussen poll was on the other hand carried out in a face to face interview. The methodology used by Pew Research involved phone interview of 3815 adult American citizens in all the states of America. 2262 respondents were interviewed on a landline phone, while the rest 1553 respondents were interviewed through a cell phone.

This includes the 784 respondents who owned both a telephone and a mobile phone (Kohut, Dorothy and Keeter, 2012). Data collection in this case was managed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, and Princeton Data Source was responsible for conducting the interview. Interviews were conducted with the person who first received the phone. First, the interviewer ensured they were above the age of 18; if not, the person closest to the receiver was requested to answer on the receiver’s behalf.

The combined phone interviews were then weighted based on; age, race, and education, Hispanic origin, nativity, religion. Rasmussen on the other hand conducted field work interviews through the Pulse Opinion Research LLC (Paulson, 2012), using an automated polling system, which implies the use of a single voice that has been recorded digitally, and is used to conduct interviews. This is aimed at ensuring every respondent hears the same question In Pew research survey, the probability for bias was eliminated as much as possible.

The phone survey ensured that the interviewer and interviewee were not in contact, and the data collected actually implied the respondent’s position. Subjective or perception factors could not have significantly affected the interview, which only lasted for few minutes through a phone. The sample population is on the other hand very large ensuring elimination of biasness in the polling process. However, in the Rasmussen face to face data collection, subjectivity and judging of personality may have contributed to some degree of errors in data collection.

This is because; personal judgment by the interviewer could lead to wrong conclusions contrary the implication of the interviewee response,. The sample size was also a bit smaller which could also affect the biasness of the final result. The polls in Rasmussen case were mainly conducted in the swing vote areas of Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire and this could have increased the biasness of the results. The target population in the two cases is similar. In the Pew Research study, the target population is the American people; anyone beyond the age of 18, and has the right to vote in America.

Moreover, the target population may be explained as the supporters of the two presidential candidates who were instrumental in providing political trends, which could later inform in predicting the outcome of the general election through policies as set out by the two respondents. The Rasmussen case on the other hand targeted mainly the population of the three swing vote areas, which have over the time believed to have the greatest effect on the outcome of a presidential election. The target population was any person above the age of 18, and who was eligible to vote in American despite their race and religion.

The Pew opinion poll would be given a score of 8 out of 10. The study was well designed with its methodology well-crafted, and good sample population that guaranteed good results. Moreover, the poll was conductance in all the 50 states, meaning it incorporated the views of all Americans across the country and would lead to formulation of a better hypothesis. The report in addition made a good attempt to avoid any biasness; they presented their findings to the best accuracy possible. On the other hand, Rasmussen survey would be rated 4.

The poll has a good degree of biasness toward the republican side, which was responsible for large a deviation between the actual results and the opinion poll surveyed by Rasmussen. Opinion polls as can be observed require due diligence and care in balancing all elements to reduce the possibility of subjectivity at all costs. The methodology of handling such a poll as well as the data collection and analysis steps are all critical in opinion polls and its results. Therefore, deviations in results of the two opinion polls were due to the degree of subjectivity and biasness in the opinion poll.

Work Cited Kohut Andrew, Doherty Carrol, and Keeter Scott, Obama Gains Edge in Campaigns Final Days. The Pew Research Center, 4th Nov. 2012, Retrieved http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-4-12%20Election%20Weekend%20Release.pdf Accessed 19Feb, 2013 Paulson Scott, Romney 49% to Obama 48%: Rasmussen Daily Presidential Poll, Examiner, 5th Nov. 2012. Retrieved http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-49-to-obama-48-with-one-day-to-go-rasmussen-poll-for-monday Accessed 19Feb, 2013