Bayesian Networks

Masters
Essay
Science
Pages 19 (4769 words)
Download 0
Bayesian networks (BNs) have established fairly well as useful symbols of knowledge for reasoning under uncertainty quite recently. However, the modelling ideas they are based on have been around for some time. The statistician Wright [16] first introduced the representation in 1921 for the analysis of crop failure…

Introduction


BNs are graphical models that set probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. They depict the relationships between causes and effects. The BNs are strong knowledge representation and reasoning tool under conditions of uncertainty. The BNs are a directed acyclic graph having nodes and arcs with a conditional probability distribution linked for each node. Nodes stand for domain variables, and arcs between nodes stand for probabilistic dependencies. Set of nodes and a set of directed links between them must not form a cycle. Each node represents a random variable that can take discrete or continuous finite, mutually exclusive values. These values depend on a probability distribution, which can be different for each node. Each link states probabilistic cause-effect relations among the linked variables. A link is shown by an arc starting from the affecting variable (parent node) and ending on the affected variable (child node).
We will use BNs to represent risk. For example, Figure 3.1 shows BN for "Decreased profits" risk. By linking together different risks we can model multiple risks in a project and we will look at this property in Chapter 5.
Bayes' Theorem was developed after Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th century mathematician and theologian. ...
Download paper
Not exactly what you need?

Related papers

Bayesian Networks
BNs are graphical models that set probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. They depict the relationships between causes and effects. The BNs are strong knowledge representation and reasoning tool under conditions of uncertainty. The BNs are a directed acyclic graph having nodes and arcs with a conditional probability distribution linked for each node. Nodes stand for domain…
ICT's in a global context
The Internet has also led to an increase in globalisation. Businesses are now able to expand and provide their services and goods in other countries; international financial institutions have been created, and the advanced modes of transportation have all contributed to the spread of globalisation (Global Policy Forum 2008). ICT has been instrumental in business, education, health and politics,…
Telecommunications and Networking Article
The rise of ICT and electronics brought tremendous advancement to communications technology which had grown from the ordinary Morse code, to simple telephony, and recently through visual telecommunication, and finally to the advent of wireless systems.…
Community Natural Resource Management
Up to date, there are around 1.2 billion people mostly coming from developing countries who "still lack access to sufficient and safe water to meet their basic needs" (qtd. in WHO and UNICEF, 2000).…
Computer Networking and Management Scholarship Essay
UDP and RTSP are idyllic for audio dissemination given that they place a high precedence on unremitting streaming rather than on utter document sanctuary. Disparate TCP and HTTP transmission, when a UDP audio packet drops out, the server keeps sending information, reasoning only a brief malfunction as an alternative of a massive gap of silence. TCP, on the other hand, keeps trying to resend the…