Using the Delphi Method in the War of Russia against Ukraine - Essay Example

PREDICTIVE METHODS My intelligence question is whether Ukraine is likely to invade Russia in an attempt to seize control over Europe. The Delphi technique entails asking the experts concerning the future to make predictions on human behaviour and conditions. It starts with a series of questions usually in the first round on a given subject and the experts answer them accordingly [1]. There is a query from a group of experienced persons on the issue under critical review. The experts actively engage in responding to questionnaires to reduce the range of responses arriving close to the consensus of the experts [2].

In this method, the experts answer the questions and later review the answers themselves. According to Sandford and Hsu, The Delphi Technique can perform functions such as the exposition of underlying information thus leading to various judgments. It can also educate respondents on the vast interrelated aspects of the topic [3]. In such a case, a group of experts will have to have some experience concerning Ukraine to determine viable intentions of the people concerning any impending attack.

Such determinations rely on the use of experts with intelligence knowledge such as the Red Team. Such cases require fusion by the relevant teams to identify the identification of elements within the area of responsibility [4]. Therefore; the reading team becomes an integral part of the prediction of the study question. The Red Team has shown major advances both in technicality and methods to handle small warring groups [5]. Read teaming is fundamental in ensuring information for intelligence collection and analysis and thus the Secretary of Defense should ensure the effective establishment of the team in critical areas such as Ukraine [6].

The Red teams have the expertise suitable to analyze situations from various perspectives such as Ukraine [7]. In such a case, they will be in a position to have sufficient information to tell whether Russia is in an invasion jeopardy. Red Teaming in the past seemed viable in the identification of potential clashes between different groups [7]. Reliable sources say that Ukraine may be preparing for an attack on the Russian Islands. However, the sources do not have the provision of a clear cut on such claims thus the Delphi method cannot ascertain the outcome of such situations.