Study of Risk and Perceptions of Crime or Danger - Essay Example

?Running Head: Stay Safe Stay Safe [Institute’s Stay Safe Part In more or less all stages of western culture, the unstoppablerise in crime has been regretted in the “corridors of authority, the media, and the public” (Zimring, p. 72, 2008). Worried by reminiscences of an earlier golden period, specialists have applied crime data research, and the approximately daily stream of media reports as a basis to speculate regarding the varying nature as well as extent of crime, together with terrible forecasts for the time to come. Unlike the past 45 years, the most noteworthy and repeatedly discussed crime drift for the 2000s has been the decrease in the reported crime rate all over America. Data showed that during 2009, the nationwide crime percentage was at a ‘25 year low’. The general crime rate for that year dropped 7 percent from 2008. Additionally, the rate of aggressive crime dropped 3.2 percent, which is the seventh successive yearly drop. Killings reduced by 5.1 percent during 2008 and arrived at the lowest rate since 1997. All over the United States, property offences and violent crime, brought into the notice of police force, dropped 9 percent during 2009 with respect to the previous year. This marked the 7th successive year when property as well as aggressive crime has decreased in the U.S. There are several aspects that drive existing crime tendencies even though there is no perfect justification as to why the crime rate has lessened so abruptly during the past couple of years or why it started to rise considerably during the 1990s. A number of criminologists argue that significant variable, for the most part, is demographics. The application of ‘crime trend study’, in addition to other quantitative representations and qualitative analyses, to foresee the potential of crime has been utilized by a number of criminologists, creative thinkers and criminal justice legislators as a technique to predict future crime trends, to some extent so that the extent as well as impact of crime can be narrowed and even stopped during the years approaching. Nonetheless, at present there is a need of combined awareness of the research and institutes that have commenced crime estimating. The objective of this research is to contribute in dealing with this gap by offering some preliminary experimental investigation into the literature, study, and systematic tools, in addition to the people and institutes that have created estimates of crime for the 21st century. Crime predictions can be “developed through both qualitative methods” (Lab, p. 102, 2010). Qualitative methods to forecasting crime, for instance, environmental checking and scenario writing, are mainly helpful in classifying the potential nature of criminal action. Demographic aspects have been mentioned as the ‘strongest determinants’ of crime rates and therefore have been vital to crime perceptions. The most important demographic variable seems to be the extent of the male inhabitants. A number of researchers have proved that crime rates are as well directly tied to the strong point of the financial system; in the time of financial slumps, property crime percentage are apt to rise quickly, while in more financially positive phases, they have a trend to drop. Based mainly on demographic as well as macro-economic drifts, there seems to be consent between forecasts for the United States, that until the year 2020, the general crime rate is projected to equal the standard crime rate during the last 15 to 20 years. This indicates that there will be a small to moderate yearly raise in the general crime rate in United States, starting during the early period of the 21st century. Related patterns must be anticipated within other developed nations. Most of the major alterations during the few subsequent decades will not be in the extent of crime, but instead, in the nature of crime. Property crime will carry on aiming substantial consumer commodities. Nonetheless, theft will also increasingly aim intangible property, for instance, “electronic services, information, knowledge, and even personal identities. Physical hardware, such as digital television sets, computers, or cellular phones, will be targeted for theft to facilitate access to valuable electronic services” (Crutchfield et al, p. 93, 2007). Crime will as well turn out to be more controlled as well as global in extent; increasingly, criminals will be situated in one or more nations whereas their prey may live in nations situated on the other part of the globe. The single variable, in accordance with previous researches, which will have the most considerable control on the future nature of crime, is technology. Latest technology will offer individual criminals easier access to organizations, location, commodities, and information; get rid of geographical barriers to crime; raise the extent of the reward from criminal offences; capitalize on ambiguity, and develop the capability of criminals to stay away from exposure. Conventional crimes, for instance, “robbery, forging, stalking, money laundering, and fraud will continue, albeit facilitated by advanced technological tools” (Flanagan & Longmire, p. 109, 1996). The internet will be a vital medium by which conventional as well as new types of crimes will be committed. Of most apprehension will be the technically wise young criminal who commits intricate electronic as well as computer-based crimes, including “stealing electronic signals, counterfeiting digital products, or hacking into computer networks” (Crutchfield et al, p. 40, 2007) for the intentions of damage or income. The future may as well hold a bigger extent of offending by legal as well as illegal businesses; internet has given boost to the ‘virtual firm’, which makes it simpler for deceitful criminals to commit fraud and stealing while staying away from being detected. As far as the potential preys of offense are concerned, family units, companies, and governments will carry on to be persecuted by a broad range of planned and unplanned substantial, electronic, and rational crime. The ordinary people will carry on being a main target of property crime, particularly as the utilization of high-value, handy user electronic goods carries on growing. Demographic drifts identify a considerable increase in the aging inhabitants during the subsequent 15 years. This will create an elder inhabitant population that may be on bigger threat of criminal assault. The greatest crime and felony risks for companies may appear from efforts to take or damage intangibles, mainly information and facts. As international opposition strengthens in the ‘knowledge period’, opponent companies may increasingly attempt to take ‘intellectual property’ by developed intelligence to keep an edge. The most important suggestion of this study is that a devoted financial support stream be offered for an incorporated research plan that observes crime trends, predicts potential crime rates as well as patterns, and approximates the costs of crime. This financial support should call attention to applied study that can be utilized to develop strategies and plans that expect potential crime trends and effort to diminish their impact on the society. The national government should set up a multi-corrective as well as multi-sectoral functioning team to synchronize and carry out this research. Potential study should evaluate the broader impact of latest technology on crime as well as on the criminal justice method. Financial support should be given to concentrate systematic and technological awareness to crime decrease, particularly ‘computer-based crime’. These proposals must be placed with respect to an emphasis on integrating crime decrease into the majority of “public policy, private sector, and household planning and decision-making” (Lord & Cowan, p. 133, 2010). Part 2 There are several issues that control the extent of crime, even though there is no perfect justification for the decrease in crime rate during past few years. The single aspect that may have had the most important influence on crime rates during recent years is technology. It will, almost certainly, carry on to significantly controlling the type of crime. The thought that crime may be connected to macro-economic aspects has been surveyed, particularly in research from the United States. Several studies recommend that crime rates, and particularly property crime rates, are directly linked to the strength of the financial system, even though the path of this association is the issue of a lot of argument. One argument is that at the time of financial slump, property crime seems to rise quickly; on the other hand for the period of more financially approving times, it is quick to drop. It is an assumption that throughout financially strong occasions, more individuals are on job and earn better salaries, and as such, are less expected to be drawn towards crime. On the contrary, financial slump give rise to larger joblessness as well as poverty, which, sequentially, drives additional individuals toward criminal activities. The opposing argument is that flourishing financial systems create better assets, which, consecutively, strengthens evident expenditure on user commodities. The rise in the amount of commodities within society boosts chances for robbery, by this means increasing property crime rates. Macro-economic aspects associate most strongly with crime drifts. The rise of the property crime rate within the United States is directly linked to financial development, and more particularly to customer expenditure. When the financial system is sturdy and utilization of consumer commodities as well as services is developing, property crime expansion is likely to delay or overturn. The opposite is right in times of financial slump. The control of technology on the potential of crime can be separated into three wide groups: (1) advancements in technology will carry on to give criminals devices to ease the order of conventional crimes (such as deception, robbery, money laundering, and forging), (2) technology itself will itself turn into the target of criminal acts (such as theft of telecom facilities and the sending viruses), and (3) latest technology will be utilized to stop or discourage criminal assault. One of the most important rationales for the raise in forging during recent years is the advancement “made in such technologies as personal computers, scanners, color laser printing, photocopiers and desktop publishing software” (Patel & Tyrer, p. 120, 2011). The marketable accessibility in addition to the lessening prices of these technologies have boosted their ease of understanding, which consecutively has offered a better amount of “people amateurs and professionals alike with the opportunity to commit a number of fraud related crimes” (Green & Roberts, p. 193, 2008), which were formerly the field of extremely experienced counterfeiters or imitators who needed specific gear and knowledge. The main strong point of quantitative models is that accounts of potential crime rates are a lot more particular as well as accurate. By extrapolating “crime trends and adjusting them according to influencing variables, predictions can be made with greater empirical validity than by relying exclusively on qualitative methods” (Ferrall et al, p. 219, 2009). Following are a few of the qualitative methods that have been applied to anticipate crime: Environmental Scanning - With respect to developing predictions, environmental scanning symbolizes a regular attempt to recognize potential improvements that could conceivably take place during the time horizon of awareness and whose occurrence could modify a specific situation in significant ways. Such expansions may appear from several fields, together with financial situations, demographic changes, government strategies and enforcement resources, global happenings, public approaches, scientific advancements, and so on. Intrinsically, the scrutinizing procedure is concerned with recognizing potential situations that could materialize and the way they have an effect on the occurrence that is the center of attention of the forecast. Potential researchers are mainly interested in recognizing those expansions - regardless of low or high possibility of manifestation - that are able of creating the most noteworthy alterations in the quality of the subject that is the issue of the forecast. Delphi Technique - Reviewing the beliefs as well as decisions of professionals regarding potential improvements has been utilized in environmental scrutinizing, and for offering direct forecasts regarding the future. Different systems, together with surveys, phone discussions, and head-to-head group gatherings, can be utilized to get professional views and support debate and consensus. The Delphi process is regularly utilized for this function. Delphi process is a method by which a team of professionals is organized to scrutinize as well as discuss the likely impacts of a chain of feasible potential growth. It depends a lot on the responses to opinion poll that was made to seek information investigating the connections between “future technology and criminal activity” (Cole & Smith, p. 239, 2008). A number of professionals various relevant fields - such as police force, insurance, loss amendment, academic world, science, and the computer business - expressed their thoughts about the potential improvements extracting criminal action. One of the messages from this study is that better highlighting should be placed on expecting and acting in response to prospect crime series. In turn, this will need the improvement and achievement of more thorough as well as incorporated research approaches that can forecast more precisely the extent, and as significantly, the type of potential crime series. Crime trend analysis and statistical modeling should be “combined with qualitative research that identifies new targets for criminal activity as well as how criminality will evolve and impact society” (Alarid & Carmen, p. 282, 2010). Whereas the perceptions of crime and impact evaluations will constantly be examined, study in this field can be helpful for criminal law strategy and plans. Potential crime trends along with their impact on the society should be predicted with the intention of making strategies and plans that predict as well as reduce those crime trends that will have the maximum harmful impact on the general public. In short, the usefulness of this integrated study proposal is to foresee different situations of potential crime perspectives and trends, in addition to those aspects that become the source of crime, so that they can be dealt with in the present, consequently lessening their impact on the times to come. Overall, there are a number of various qualitative approaches that can be adopted to study crime perceptions. One of the considerable loopholes in the methodological plans of the studies evaluated for this paper is the need of a mutual application of quantitative as well as qualitative study. The majority of studies on this topic, if not all, make use of quantitative approach, but not both. This is a major disadvantage because quantitative and qualitative methods are quite balancing. As a quantitative method is helpful for “extrapolating crime trends” (Alarid & Carmen, p. 183, 2010), qualitative methods, for instance, “environmental scanning or scenario writing” (Alarid & Carmen, p. 185, 2010), are helpful in classifying variables that will control crime rates. This method incorporates the recognition of various possible arrangements of these variables, which can afterwards be applied to create a number of alternatives for quantitative approach. References Alarid, L. F. and Carmen, R. V. 2010. Community-Based Corrections. Wadsworth Publishing. Cole, G. F. and Smith, C. E. 2008. The American System of Criminal Justice. Wadsworth Publishing. Crutchfield, R. D. Kubrin, C. E. Bridges, G. S. and Weis, J. G. 2007. Crime: Readings. Sage Publications, Inc. Farrall, S. D. Jackson, J. and Gray, E. 2009. Social Order and the Fear of Crime in Contemporary Times. OUP. Flanagan, T. J. and Longmire. D. R. 1996. Americans View Crime and Justice: A National Public Opinion Survey. Sage Publications, Inc. Green, D. L. and Roberts, A. R. 2008. Helping Victims of Violent Crime: Assessment, Treatment, and Evidence-Based Practice. Springer Publishing Company. Lab, S. P. 2010. Crime Prevention. Anderson. Lord, V. and Cowan, A. D. 2010. Interviewing in Criminal Justice: Victims, Witnesses, Clients, and Suspects. Jones & Bartlett Publishers. Patel, T. and Tyrer, D. 2011. Race, Crime and Resistance. Sage Publications Ltd. Zimring, F. E. 2008. The Great American Crime Decline. OUP. Read More