The Major Trends in US Fertility Rates over the Ten-Year Period - Assignment Example

Assignment Four Task The major trends in US fertility rates over the ten-year period Fertility rate in United States is one of the highest among the developed nations. Although the trends have been should unpredictable decreases and increases fertility rates remains to be high. In 2010, the United States’ total fertility rate stood at 1931.0 births per 1,000 women (Martin et al 2). This was a 4 percent drop of the 2,002.0 births per the same number of women reported in 2009. Back in 2000, total fertility rate was 2,130.0 per 1,000 women. This was a 3 percent (Martin et al 3). Increase of the 2,075.0 births per 1,000 recorded in 1999. From 2000, the fertility rate has been increasing through 2007 from where it has started to decline. The trends observed in 2010 was comparable to those observed in 1980s (Martin et al 1). These changes in fertility rates are caused by fertility rates among women of different ages, population groups and geographical regions. Trends of the fertility rates are affected by the changes of fertility rates within individual groups of the American population. Also, the rates change within some age groups and consequently affect the total fertility rate. For instance, there was an increase of the fertility rates among women in their twenties. A great decrease in the rate of birth among teenager women is notable, this decrease was negligible compared to the increase of fertility rates among older women. The trends of fertility rates are influenced by the lifestyles among women (Martin et al 17). Good medical care and diet lead to increased medical care while increased alcohol consumption and smoking of tobacco decrease fertility rate. This was ascertained in the trends of the trends recorded in 1999 and 2000. The increase in fertility rates was due to decreased alcohol consumption and smoking of tobacco among pregnant women. A fertility rate of about 2,100 births per 1,000 women is considered sufficient for a generation to replace itself. In 2006 and 2007, fertility rates were above this rate but it has been below this figure. Most of groups within the American population do not meet this rate while some of them meet. The AIAN, non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black fertility rates are mostly below replacement but those for Mexican and other Hispanic are mostly higher (Martin et al 38). Task #2: definition of terms The ratio of total live births to the population in totality in a specified community or an area over a specified time is referred to as birth rate. This ratio is mostly an expression of the number of given live births per 1,000 of the total population per year Fertility rate is the specified ratio of births in a given area to the total population of the same area; it is normally expressed per 1000 population per annum Total fertility rate is the number of children that a woman will give birth to if she lives towards the finality of her childbearing years and bears children with regards to current age-fertility specifications Task #3: A table showing how birth rates for women of all races have changed by age between the two periods. (Martin et al 38-62) Birth rate Time Race The age of women 15-19 years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Black 86.3 83.5 79.1 77.3 71.3 65.7 62.5 61.7 60.1 56.4 51.1 White 43.2 41.0 39.2 38.0 37.4 36.7 37.9 38.4 37.3 35.3 31.9 American Indian 58.3 54.7 51.0 49.2 47.4 46.0 47.0 49.4 47.4 43.8 38.7 Asians 20.5 19.3 17.7 16.4 16.0 15.4 15.3 14.8 13.8 12.6 10.9 All races 47.7 45.0 42.6 41.1 40.5 39.7 41.1 41.5 40.2 37.9 34.2 20-24 years Black 141.3 132.9 126.8 125.8 127.5 129.4 135.2 134.6 130.5 125.1 118.1 White 106.6 103.4 101.6 100.9 99.8 99.9 103.4 103.5 99.8 94.1 87.9 American Indian 117.2 114.1 110.9 107.2 105.6 103.0 106.9 106.0 103.0 96.6 91.0 Asians 60.3 56.0 55.5 54.3 53.3 52.9 53.8 53.1 50.4 46.4 42.6 All races 109.7 105.6 103.1 102.3 101.5 101.8 105.5 105.4 101.8 96.2 90 25-29 years Black 100.3 99.5 99.4 101.4 104.4 107.0 110.6 110.4 107.9 105.2 101.8 White 116.7 117.8 119.0 121.3 120.8 120.7 122.0 122.0 118.8 114.9 111.9 American Indian 91.8 89.4 89.1 89.5 87.2 86.6 89.2 86.4 83.4 79.5 74.4 Asians 108.4 102.4 102.4 102.7 100.4 96.6 95.7 99.2 96.6 94.6 91.5 All races 113.5 113.8 114.7 116.7 116.5 116.5 118.0 118.1 115.0 111.5 108.3 30-34 years Black 65.4 64.9 64.7 66.4 67.8 70.2 73.8 74.8 74.8 73.4 73.0 White 94.6 95.9 96.7 100.1 100.3 100.7 102.7 104.4 103.3 101.3 100.5 American Indian 55.5 54.3 53.8 52.9 52.0 51.9 52.1 52.7 51.4 50.9 48.4 Asians 116.5 109.9 112.5 115.9 118.3 115.3 117.3 121.6 117.6 115.1 113.6 All races 91.2 91.8 92.6 95.7 96.2 96.7 98.9 100.6 99.4 97.5 96.5 35-39 years Black 31.5 31.6 31.6 33.0 33.8 35.1 36.3 36.4 36.4 36.2 36.4 White 40.2 41.4 42.6 45.0 46.7 47.6 48.6 48.5 47.5 46.7 46.4 American Indian 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.4 23.9 23.3 24.0 24.3 23.2 22.7 22.3 Asians 59.0 56.2 57.8 60.0 62.2 61.8 63.4 65.8 64.9 63.8 62.8 All races 39.7 40.5 41.6 43.9 45.5 46.4 47.5 47.6 46.8 46.1 45.9 40-44 years Black 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.3 White 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 American Indian 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Asians 12.6 12.2 12.6 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.1 All races 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 10.2 45-49 years Black 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 White 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 American Indian 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Asians 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 All races 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Task #4: reason for using confidence limit The population data we have is around 99 percent of the United States of America births in totality. Since no births can be registered, the confidence limits are required to cater for the unregistered number of births. Task #5: setting hypothesis The fertility rate of women in 2000 was 2,130.0 per 1,000 women while in 2010 the fertility rate was 1931.0 births per 1,000 women. Null Hypothesis: Fertility rate in 2010 is equal to fertility rate in 2000. Alternative hypothesis: Fertility rate in 2010 is less than fertility rate in 2000 Fertility rate in 2010 is more than fertility rate in 2000 Using 95% confidence limit, the limits of fertility rates in 2010 becomes Lower limit = 1931.0 – (1.96 x (1931.0)) =1931.0-86.0 =1845 Upper limit = 1931.0 + (1.96 x (1931.0)) =1931+86 =2017 For 2000, Lower limit = 2130.0 – (1.96 x (2130.0)) =2130-90 =2040 Upper limit = 2130.0 + (1.96 x (2130.0)) =2130+90 =2220 Using 90% confidence limit, the limits of fertility rates in 2010 becomes Lower limit = 1931.0 – (1.645 x (1931.0)) =1931.0-72 =1859 Upper limit = 1931.0 + (1.645 x (1931.0)) =1931+72 =2003 For 2000, Lower limit = 2130.0 – (1.645 x (2130.0)) =2130-76 =2054 Upper limit = 2130.0 + (1.96 x (2130.0)) =2130+76 =2206 Determining 85% limits is not defined. From the above calculations, there is no overlapping of the intervals of both cases and therefore, the hypothesis is not true. Task #6: Testing hypothesis Number of births to teenaged women in the year 2010 is the same as the number of births to teenaged women the year 2000. At 2000, the number of births for teenage girls is 47.7 for 1,000 girls while it was 34.2 in 2010. The number of births was 468,990 in 2000 and 367,678 in 2010. For 2000, Lower limit = 47.7 – [1.96 x (47.7 / (468990)] = 47.7-0.14 = 47.6 Upper limit = 47.7 + [1.96 x (47.7 / (468990)] = 47.7 + 0.14 = 47.8 For 2010, Lower limit = 34.2 – [1.96 x (34.2 / (367,678)] = 34.2-0.06 = 34.14 Upper limit = 34.2 + [1.96 x (47.7 / (367,678)] = 34.2+ 0.06 = 34.26 For 80% interval Lower limit = 47.7 – [1.645 x (47.7 / (468990)] = 47.7-0.11 = 45.9 Upper limit = 47.7 + [1.645 x (47.7 / (468990)] = 47.7 + 0.11 = 47.81 For 2010, Lower limit = 34.2 – [1.645 x (34.2 / (367,678)] = 34.2-0.09 = 34.11 Upper limit = 34.2 + [1.645 x (47.7 / (367,678)] = 34.2+ 0.09 = 34.29 From the above intervals, there is no overlap and therefore the hypothesis is wrong. Cited works Martin, Joyce A., Hamilton, Brady E., Ventura, Stephanie J., Osterman, Michelle J.K., Wilson, Elizabeth C. and Mathews, T.J. Births: Final Data for 2010 National of Vital Statistics Report Volume 61, Number 1, 2012. Web. 8/3/2014. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_01.pdf Martin, Joyce A., Hamilton, Brady E., Ventura Stephanie J., Menacker, Fay and Park, Melissa M. Births: Final Data for 2000. National of Vital Statistic Report, Volume 50, Number 5 2002. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr50/nvsr50_05.pdf Read More