Threats of the Future - Essay Example

?Harris Kamran Media and Film Studies Discussion Paper 16 April Threats of the future The society has always been exposed to various natural andmanmade threats, which have put the civilization at risk. Some of these threats have been beyond the control of man, especially some of the natural threats, or at least beyond the hope of salvation, so that the human population is entirely at the mercy of their luck and the occurrence of the event (Covey). However, more recently, the manmade threats have posed a greater risk to humanity than the natural disasters, being more personal in nature, and more real and immediate. The worst thing about such threats is that they are created by man to destroy the civilization, and the cure or solution to these threats is also present, or at least can be designed. However, the antisocial and terrorist groups and agencies play a certain monopoly whereby the solution is only in their grasp, and the victim is left completely defenseless. This is another nature of the manmade terrorist threats; they are targeted, so that a certain section of the population is at risk while the rest are safe or completely unaware of the posing danger (Covey). This makes the threat more dangerous and criminal. With the advancement in technology and the evolution of ideas, the nature of threats has also changed and modified, becoming more sophisticated and complex, and more targeted. The scope of these threats is also becoming more global, and surprisingly, more virtual or transparent, so that they are now very difficult to spot and equally difficult to defend against (Cyber Threats of the Future). The type of threat that society faces at a certain point in time depends upon the framework of that society, and the technical and educational advancement of that era. Whereas there was, not long ago, a very imminent threat of nuclear warfare, and to some extent, still is, it has become more controlled now due to international treatises and the ownership of nuclear technology by many countries worldwide, so that it is no longer an exclusive technology (Covey). The defenses and the weapons have also been modified in lieu of the changes in the offense. Where there were once wars against entire countries and nations, such as the world wars I and II, more recently, the perpetrators are merely a few individuals who organize crime through the use of agencies and networks. Hence, in modern times, the targets are individuals and small organizations. This is due to the concept of organized crime in the recent times (Hoffman). The future threats and the defense against them would be, in the most likelihood, more technological and virtual than physical, and of a nature that few would have thought of or considered a serious threat. Many of these dangers still seem a work of science fiction films and novels, and the masses still refuse to accept them as viable and potent threats. However, there is growing evidence and attitude toward the application and employment of those technologies in a negative and anti-social manner for highly targeted and suspiring attacks and warfare. This paper purports to discus three of such threats: the cyber threats, artificial intelligence, and biomedical threats. The advent of the Internet has radically changed the nature of the global community, in terms of its reach, connectivity, and the speed of transfer of information and data (Cyber Threats of the Future). The world has literally been connected together through wireless and optical technology, shifting the paradigms of social interactions, educational and academic systems, government workings, military and defense mechanisms, private and public sector, and the corporate world (Cyber Threats of the Future). The technology has touched users on individual and personal levels, while the degree of customization and user-friendly interfaces are improving and increasing everyday (Cyber Threats of the Future). There is now more and more centralized collection and storage of sensitive and personal data, which in itself has become the prime target for threat groups (Hoffman). We are in an age of information, and information has become the new social and technical currency (Hoffman). Whoever has access and control of this information has control over the minds and lives of the people attached to that data, and can easily manipulate them, often to his own harmful and selfish ends. There is an intermingling of the corporate and the technical worlds, so that multi-national corporations and agencies have now become these central data banks. Where once they sought monopoly and power in the trade market, they now strive for control of the personal statistics as technological giants of the business. The social exchange and interfaces have radically changed, so that people can communicate socially across continents through the use of Websites and social networking hubs such as Facebook, Twitter, and MySpace (Hoffman). These hubs are not only an excellent source of personal information, but also are effective tools of mass media coverage, manipulation, motivation, and movement (Cyber Threats of the Future). Consequently, they are worth millions in the corporate market. This union of the corporate and technical markets has expanded the reach of the organizations and terrorist groups exponentially, increasing not only the scope of their attacks, but also the variations in the nature and methods of their threats (Cyber Threats of the Future). The other aspect of cyber crime that effects the nature and mode of its threats is its virtual characteristic. Since it does not exist in physical space, it cannot be caught and defended against in the physical space. This means the development of entirely new and different type of technologies for defense against cyber crime (Cyber Threats of the Future). This also results in a far wider reach of this crime than would have been possible if it were of material nature (Cyber Threats of the Future). The corporate world and the individuals, both are becoming increasingly mobile, so that a lot of business transactions, dealings, and other workings are carried out virtually, and a lot of personal dealings and social interactions as well (Hoffman). This gives cyber criminals_ who once were individual or small groups, but have now developed into highly organized and complex organizations and agencies, often international in nature_ more chances and options for spreading their threats and targeting their danger (Hoffman). The variants of these cyber crimes have also exponentially increased by their developers, so that it has increasingly become more difficult to pinpoint the source, the kind of threat, its mode of action, and the subsequent design of the solution (Cyber Threats of the Future). And since the criminals are software and computer experts themselves, they are apt at hiding their identity and their location (Cyber Threats of the Future). The government technical staff and that of the other defense organizations are constantly working to counter these criminals, however, they are still several steps behind them (Cyber Threats of the Future). The cyber crimes and threats include those of phishing, which is the financial conning that is carried out by hackers and software experts of the unsuspecting users through the use of information gathering bots, Trojans, and malware software (Hoffman). They gather financial information such as credit card numbers, financial and bank statements, passwords, and other sensitive data in order to lure the customers into making transactions, or stealing from their accounts (Hoffman). Trojans and malware can also be employed to gather other personal data, such as addresses, race, religion, culture, educational details, social interactions, and other such material for blackmailing or misuse (Hoffman). There might be internal security breaches in company information and data centers, exposing the personal data of the users and clients to the threat groups, which could then misuse that information (Hoffman). The recent developments in their technology means that now they need only a few seconds to make use of internal breaches before the company realizes the patch in their system and tries to fix it (Hoffman). Also, they have developed applications which launch multiple malware software, bots, and Trojans into the systems, each with its own scores of variants, so that it is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible for the companies to counter all the threats at one time, leading to great loss of information and finance (Hoffman). Even the use of traditional computer viruses, which, thanks to the improvements in antivirus software have reduced in their potency, can still wreak havoc in a company’s system, destroying all the files while multiplying every time an operation is executed, so that there are more viruses to counter with each step (Hoffman). Some of the viruses download more such cyber threats in real time once they are activated (Hoffman). This can cost the company thousands of dollars in losses and repair (Hoffman). Given this scenario, it is evident that much of the financial cut would go toward the tracking of these cyber criminals, and the development of effective software, tools, and antivirus programs that could effectively clean the systems and rid it of these worms and viruses. The is a need for the training of technical staff in this field, and a round-the-clock operational team constantly tracking the bots. Another form of a related threat to the human civilization in general is from another technological advancement; the Artificial Intelligence, or AI, as it is known (Artificial Intelligence). Although it does seem like a farfetched idea and a concept of the movies and books dealing with the science fiction, the reality might not be that far off. There have been great advancements in this field, and already there are models of intelligent computers and robots who can take over much of the work of the human mind (Artificial Intelligence). The availability and feasibility of this technology is also improving. The latest computers and handheld devices have all become increasingly easier to use and more sophisticated, thanks to the involvement and utilization of artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence). This technology is used in the military and in technological labs and workplaces to expedite the computing process and to get better results (Artificial Intelligence). Although the aim of this technology is basically to shift the burden of thinking and computing from the humans to the computers to reduce health risks and social problems, it is still a new technology, and the experts are not yet fully aware of its ramifications (Artificial Intelligence). This is an additional reason that makes this technology a threat for the future. AI is based on the concept of learning (Artificial Intelligence). The computers are intelligent because they can be fed with information, and they process it like a human brain but without the natural constraints of the mind (Artificial Intelligence). This makes AI a very potent technology. Already intelligent computers are beating the best human chess players, recognizing the voice patterns and recordings without prior induction with any recognition software, translating human handwriting into computer text, and holistically storing data to generate conclusions and decisions (McCarthy). There are computers which are made into experts or engineers, that is, they are fed with all the knowledge that we have about a certain field, say medicine, and then they are used instead of human experts to work and control the set up (McCarthy). Of course this development is still in the trial process, and have not been deployed generally in the society, the experts are working on it, and it will not be long before the weather is predicted by computers, patients are treated by them, and banks are run by machinery (Artificial Intelligence). Perhaps the imminent danger is not through an all out war against the human race by the machines, although some experts do predict such a turn in events; the AI, after all, depends on learning, and it might, for instance, learn that money and power is the key to succeed, and fight the humans for the same slots (Artificial Intelligence). However, the existing danger comes from the linking of the machinery together, and the increasing dependency of the humans over their use. There have been talks of putting computers on the control of the nuclear programs (Artificial Intelligence). If this actualizes, and something were to go wrong with the system, or the system, bring rum by AI, were to decide, through pure calculation, that humans were posing a risk to the machines, it can only be imagined the extent of damage and destruction that could take place. There is, then, a need for a balance of dependency, and a check and control mechanism to be placed into operation regarding how much authority the humans are ready to give to the computers and machines. What is being developed as an aide to the humans might actually turn out to be their worst enemies. The third threat to the society to be discussed in the paper is that of the biological weapons, or biological warfare, as it is known. This involves the use of biological agents such as viruses, bacteria, fungi, and toxins, to intentionally spread disease in a certain population (Biological Warfare). This technique of warfare has the ability to be either highly targeted, effecting only one individual, or encompassing, so that it effects on a mass level, destroying whole tribes and communities (Biological Warfare). The threat of a biological warfare is not only in the future, it is also in the present. With the advancement in technology, there have been improvements in the refinement and isolation techniques for the microbial agents, so that they can be separated and cultured to produce pure samples of those agents. These biological elements can then be harvested, packed into packages, envelopes, or aerosol cans, and transported very easily across borders to be delivered to their destination (Biological Warfare). Recently, the techniques for obtaining these agents and their purification have become so simple and effective that no high-tech facility if required to process and store them; they can be done by individuals having a basic knowledge of the process (Biological Warfare). Due to the open access to information on the Internet and elsewhere, it has become very easy for such information to be obtained and misused (Biological Warfare). Therefore, this type of danger is also linked to the advancement in technology, just as the previous two threats were, hence, its inclusion in this paper. Some examples of the agents that are commonly obtained, studied, and even used in threat attacks include anthrax, botulinum toxin, alfatoxin, ricin, Salmonella, plague, small pox, and other such compounds for common diseases such as influenza (Biological Warfare). Some of these agents have been used in the not so distant past by the military to win over the enemy, others have been developed and stored in large numbers in facilities in many countries in case there is an outburst of biological warfare (Biological Warfare). It is evident from the discussion in the paper that the nature of the threats in the future would be very different from the ones we face today, and most will be linked to the technological advances of today. Works Cited “Artificial Intelligence.” Oracle. Thinkquest, 21 Jun. 1997. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. “Biological Warfare.” eMedicineHealth. WebMD, 2012. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. Covey, Stephen D. “Threats to our future.” Ramblings on the Future of Humanity. Blogspot, 25 Aug. 2008. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. “Cyber Threats of the Future.” CSIS. CSIS, 2012. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. Hoffman, Stephanie. “Top 10 Biggest Security Threats of the Future.” CRN. UBM Channel, 22 Sep. 2008. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. McCarthy, John. “Applications of AI.” What is Artificial Intelligence? Stanford, 12 Nov. 2007. Web. 16 Apr. 2012. Read More