Climate Change and North Atlantic Hurricanes - Term Paper Example

Introduction The changes that are occurring within the climate are creating vast changes in various areas. Many attribute these problems to global warming and the alterations which are occurring from abuse of the land and pollution that is altering the ozone and atmosphere. However, there are other researchers which are redefining the scientific base that is attributed to global warming and the changes in patterns within the climate. When examining the North Atlantic hurricane patterns, it can be seen that the climate change is not attributed to global warming. Instead, it is attributed to the changes that are related to the patterns in the earth and the alterations that are occurring based on natural climate changes. Analyzing the attributes of hurricanes, natural patterns which occur and the variations which are a part of the hurricane activity further explains the rise in hurricanes that is currently occurring. North Atlantic Hurricane Changes There is a noted change in patterns with the North Atlantic hurricanes and what is occurring within the climate. Specifically, there are changes in the number of hurricanes and the impact that is being made with the patterns, specifically since 2004. Many believe that this is a result of global warming and changes in the atmosphere which have been created. However, it is now found that climate changes and weather patterns are creating a fluctuation in the hurricanes because of several factors. The underlying ocean, decadal time scales, atmospheric changes and change from the sun are all creating changes in how the climate impacts the hurricanes. There are now debates over cycles in the climates and how these link specifically to the concept of rises and falls in the storm patterns and frequency within the climate (Marshall et al, 2001). The frequency in patterns is now the main concern of those that are interested in the hurricane frequency and the drastic changes which are now being made. The changes are directly attributed to patterns in the North Atlantic that were also at this frequency in the 1950s which were increasing the hurricane activity. Since the increase is similar from the pattern of the 1950s, including activity, atmospheric conditions and temperature, many attribute the changes to a generalized climate change (Knutson et al, 2008). Climate Change Science The basis for the North Atlantic hurricane patterns is one that is changing consistently, and which many link to global warming. However, the scientific basis shows an alteration in the climate patterns specifically because of the natural science that is attributed to this. The hurricanes alter specifically because of the changes in the atmosphere, which begins with the alterations in solar inputs. These immediately affect the atmosphere to ice interaction, heat exchange, wind stress, precipitation evaporation and overall changes in the ocean. While there are also alterations from the human influences, weather patterns and changes in the atmosphere and ocean are more likely to affect the hurricane patterns, as well as the heat and cold that are associated with the climate (Treut, Somervile, 2007). The climate change that is associated with the natural alterations in temperature and overall changes is also linked to specific changes within the environment. When considering the North Atlantic hurricanes, it can be noted that there is a specific amount of physical activity that is based on scientific attributes within the atmosphere. When there is a specific level of warmth that comes to the Atlantic Ocean it changes the activity of the hurricanes and begins to create different patterns and frequencies with the climate. It has been noted that the anthropogenic factors are responsible for Atlantic warmth, which changes the number of hurricane activities. The tropospheric aerosol cooling is only responsible for a fraction of the amount of activity that takes place during warmer cycles, which leads to an automatic increase with activity. While some inconsistencies are noted with this climate change pattern, most data has found that tropical influences and the changes in atmosphere and warmth from the sun are primarily responsible for climate changes that lead to growth or decline of hurricane activities (EOS, 2006). The activities that are questioned within the atmosphere are not only defined through the concept of climate change, but are also furthered into the hypothesis that natural variability is a part of the alteration. Global warming is one which is not able to provide a heavy enough emphasis to change the hurricane activity through the North Atlantic. However, natural variability, which creates a continuous fluctuation in the number of tropical storms, heat, cooling and other processes, is now becoming an accepted part of the activity that is in the North Atlantic. The concept of this being attributed to a climate trend is one that is now disregarded, specifically because of internal oscillations in the climate system. For instance, 1945 – 1964 noted peak periods for hurricane proportions. After this time, it declined. With the natural variability, it would be noted that there would again be an increase for the amount of climate change that is naturally affecting the number of hurricanes in the atmosphere (Holland, Webster, 2007). Global Climate Projections The scientific basis that is attributed to the global climate changes and the North Atlantic hurricanes is also leading to expected cycles that will directly affect other aspects of climate change. Tropical cyclones are noted to currently have a space from 100 km to 9 km with increased peak wind intensities and near storm precipitation. There are also mid – latitude storms that are shifting, specifically in the Southern Hemisphere, which has slightly lower pressures and poleward – shifted storms (IPCC, 2007). The increase that is a part of these intensities is one which is also noted as a cyclical change from past tropical storms. When looking at multidecadal scales, it can be seen that the hurricane numbers rise and decrease, specifically which is related to the increase in atmospheric vapor water. Even though the current trends with the number of hurricanes are not tracked, the expected increase and decrease according to cyclical changes within the atmosphere is one which can still be projected (Trenberth, 2005). Specific predictions are now being used specifically because of the trends and changes with atmospheric shifts that are occurring, specifically by finding alternative tools that can predict what is occurring with the North Atlantic hurricanes. A prominent tool includes the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which shows the natural climate fluctuation that is a part of the atmospheric changes. A second component is records that combine the near surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature. These show that the changes in the sea temperature and the number of hurricanes can be predicted and are specifically associated with climate changes, as opposed to global warming. Becoming more efficient with these recordings will provide further evidence associated with the changes in climate change, specifically with the hurricanes that are now continuing to increase through the North Atlantic (Elsner 2006). Another concept which is being applied to the hurricanes is based on the concept of extremes, which are also known to move throughout the climate through specific time frames. Trends and projections of storms become specifically related to the frequencies and intensities that are naturally going to change through different climates and alterations. The vulnerability is also calculated into this, which characterizes the extremity of the storm and any damage that may occur. Many believe that the hurricanes caused through El Nino and other natural disasters are directly attributed to global warming; however, the lacks of predictability because of extreme fluctuations in the weather which can’t be predicted are also applicable to this. More important, the extremities which naturally rotate with storms and other aspects continue to shape and change as a part of the scientific basis of the climate (Pielke, RA, et al, 2005). Not only are the predictions associated with extremities, but also move into alternative models that are now being reconsidered for predictions in climate change. Specifically, there are other models which have looked at hurricane patterns for 1400 year control simulations, specifically by using the HadCM3 climate model. The longer period of time and the measurement of the atmosphere are able to create an alteration in how climate changes occur as well as how there are realistic alterations within the climate. The internal climate variability that has occurred and which can be predicted then is able to create multidecadal variations that are a part of the climate. However, to measure the frequency and alterations with hurricanes, there is the need to create a regional control over different areas, as the region varies by the changes and variation that are within each area. If the simulation changes in one area in one region, it may stay the same in another because o the cycles that are used. The regional areas can also be compared with the 1400 year model which predicts a different atmospheric model that can predict the internal variability with the different climates as well as how each of these are affected specifically through time observations. When looking at this simulation, newer predictions and assumptions for climate change can also be a part of the main attributes of the hurricanes and the rise that is now being seen within various regions, as well as how each of these creates simulated variability. For the Atlantic, the changes are further predicted with increased pressures and atmospheric changes, specifically with impacts that come closer to the 10 – 20 degree North correlations (Knight, Folland, Scaife, 2006). Conclusion The concepts which are associated with the North Atlantic hurricanes have often been attributed to global warming and the man made problems within the environment. However, it is noted that there are other concepts which are associated with this, specifically which is based on the natural climate changes and cycles that are occurring. The atmospheric pressure changes, increase and decrease in temperatures and the decadal differences all attribute to the alterations with hurricanes. While assumptions for global warming continue to relate to the hurricanes and increased activity, it can be noted that the changes are coming specifically from the climate changes and natural variability that is within the climate. Studying the climatic changes from the past and understanding how the North Atlantic region varies can also explain the drastic changes that are occurring with hurricane activity as well as the specific responses which are related to the current increases in hurricanes. References Elsner, James. (2006). “Evidence in Support of the Climate Change – Atlantic Hurricane Hypothesis.” Geophysical Research Letters (33). EOS. (2006). “Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Changes.” EOS (87), (24). Holland, Greg, Peter Webster. (2007). “Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (365), (1860). IPCC. (2007). “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Base.” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Knight, Jeff, Chris Folland, Adam Scaife. (2006). “Climate Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.” Geophysical Research Letters (33). Knutson, Thomas, Joseph Sirutis, Stephen Garner, Gabriel Vecchi, Isaac Held. (2008). “Simulated Reduction in Atlantic Hurricane Frequency Under Twenty – First Century Warming Conditions.” Nature Geoscience (1). Marshall, John, Yochanan Kushnir, David Battisi, Ping Chang, Arnuad Czaja, Robert Dickson. (2002). “North Atlantic Climate Variability: Phenomena, Impacts and Mechanisms.” International Journal of Climatology (21), (15). Pielke, RA, C Landsea, M Mayfield, J Laver, R Pasch. (2005). “Hurricanes and Global Warming.” American Meteorological Society (1572). Trenberth, Kevin. (2005). “Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming.” Science (17). Treut, Le, HR Somerville. (2007). “Historical Overview of Climate Change Science: The Physical Science Basis.” IPCC. Read More