Climate Vulnerability Issues - Case Study Example

Climate Vulnerability Analysis – Kenya Name Institution Abstract Climate change is an emerging issue that many governments and institutions have to handle. The Kenyan economy relies heavily on natural resources, making it more susceptible to effects of climate change. The Government of Kenya does not have a sufficient adaptive capacity. However, Kenya stands a good chance of developing her adaptive capacity. KEY WORDS: Kenya, climate change, vulnerability, economy, adaptive capacity Acronyms UNFCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change GDP – Gross Domestic Product ASALs – Arid and Semi-Arid Lands WWF – World Wide Fund for Nature Human beings rely heavily on natural systems and processes. People produce food through these natural systems and processes. Besides, other resources such as energy are provided through these systems and processes. Thus, effects of climate change are bound to alter significantly how human societies function. As global temperatures increase, sea levels rise, precipitation patterns change and ice caps melt, every creature in the world will be affected in one way or another. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the Kenyan economy to climate change and examines the possible impacts of climate change on governance. According to the UNFCCC, climate change can be defined as a change of climatic conditions caused directly or indirectly by human activity that changes the global atmospheric composition. These changes are in addition to natural climate variations over comparable time periods (UNFCC, 2015). Although the element of human activity features prominently in the definition, climate change is a result of a complexity of processes. There are three categories of factors that cause climate change, namely geophysical, astronomical and biotic (UNFCC, 2015). Geophysical factors are those that relate to the earth’s tectonic activity. These would include volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tectonic inclination variations. Astronomical factors refer to the interaction of celestial objects (mainly the sun) with the earth. Biotic factors are brought about by living organisms. Biotic factors are not limited to human activities only. Other processes such as photosynthesis also contribute to climate change. However, human activities remain the most significant contributors to climate change. Kenya is a coastal country in the East African region. The Equator almost bisects it horizontally. The country covers a total of 587,000 km2. 11,000 km2 of these are water bodies. The country is rich in bio-diversity with over 35,000 documented species of flora and fauna. The most notable physical features in Kenya are the Mount Kenya, Lake Victoria, the Indian Ocean shoreline andthe Great Rift Valley. Mount Kenya stands at 5,230 m above sea level. Several decades ago, Mount Kenya had a magnificent icecap. However, the cap has disappeared due to global warming. Kenya has five major water towers namely Aberdare Ranges, Mau Forest, Cherangany Forest and Mount Elgon Forest. Kenya has a population 44.35 million. The Gross Domestic Product stands at $55.24 billion. 45.9% of the population fall under the poverty line (The World Bank, 2015). Although these statistics are grim, Kenya is among the best performing Sub-Saharan economies. Agriculture, tourism, and the industrial sector are among the largest contributors to the Kenyan economy. Agriculture contributes about 25% of the GDP and employs close to 64% of the population. The manufacturing industry provides 9% of the GDP. The tourism industry has performed poorly in the last two years due to insecurity concerns. It contributed about one billion dollars to the GDP in 2012 (Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, 2013). Interestingly, only 20% of Kenya’s landmass receives sufficient rainfall for agricultural productivity and is considered high potential (National Environment Management Authority, 2015). The rest of the country comprises of Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). These lands receive a maximum of 850mm of rainfall annually. 80% of Kenya’s population occurs in the high potential areas. The ASALs are dominated by livestock-keeping communities, with over 70% of Kenya’s livestock in these areas. The ASALs also support a broad range of wildlife. Thus, they are important to the tourism industry. The country’s heavy dependence on natural resources has led to environmental degradation and unsustainable use. For instance, total forest cover dropped from 3708 acres in 1990 to 3467 acres in 2010 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2010). Kenya has had stable governments since she secured independence from Britain in 1963. There have been four presidents so far. Power hand-over has been relatively smooth although violence during and after elections is rampant. Unlike most African countries, Kenya has never experienced a successful coup or military rule. Thus, it is highly unlikely that challenges resulting from climate change could threaten the stability of the current or future governments. However, climate change will contribute to future governance. The present and future governments have to deal with droughts, floods, and other phenomena that occur due to climate change. Climate change will also adversely affect the economy unless current and future governments put measures in place to mitigate these effects. Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability means the extent of a system’s exposure to effects of climate change and its ability to cope with the said effects (Waithaka, Nelson, Thomas & Kyotalimye, 2013). If the vulnerability is considered to be susceptibility to an adverse outcome, poor people are more vulnerable to climate change. As stated earlier, about 45% of Kenyans live below the poverty line. Thus, the level of vulnerability of individuals can already be seen to be high. This paper considers five elements to develop a vulnerability evaluation for the economy. These elements are a temporal reference, the vulnerable system, the sphere, the attribute of concern and the hazard. Temporal reference refers to the time frame through which vulnerability is assessed. Climate change is dynamic. As such, its effects are bound to change over time. Also, the characteristics of the primary sectors of the Kenyan economy may also evolve over time. Thus, it is important to select a reasonable time frame over which to assess vulnerability. This paper will assess the vulnerability over fifty years. It would be unreasonable to estimate over a shorter period because of the relative stability of the Kenyan economy. Also, significant impacts of climate change may not be felt at a shorter time. Selecting a period longer than fifty years would introduce large uncertainties in both the climatic conditions and economic situation of the country. The vulnerable system for this paper will be the Kenyan economy, in general, with emphasis on the agricultural, tourism and manufacturing sectors. These three areas employ the bulk of the Kenyan population. Thus, effects of climate change on them are likely to affect the general population. Also, if these sectors are adversely affected, the government’s ability to raise funds would be significantly reduced. Hence, social aspects of the economy such as education and healthcare would also be affected. The sphere refers to both internal and external factors that influence the vulnerable system. Internal factors originate from within the country such as government policies. The government of Kenya has had a tough time balancing the need to expand agricultural productivity and conserve the environment. Famous forests such as the Mau have suffered heavy losses as people clear sections for agricultural use. The desire by 80% of thepopulation to live within 20% of the country has also strained resources. As a result, Government policies will play a significant role in increasing or reducing the economy’s vulnerability. External factors originate from other countries and organizations. Examples are the importation food and energy. The attributes of concern are the specific components of the system that could be affected by the hazard. For this paper, these attributes are the agricultural, tourism and manufacturing sectors. The agricultural sector is perhaps the most dependent on climatic conditions. Most of the farming in Kenya relies on natural rainfall. Erratic rainfall leads to reduced crop yield. Heavy rainfall leads to increased productivity. Also, extreme weather conditions such as floods lead to crop destruction. Thus, with climate change, the agricultural sector is bound to experience significant changes. The tourism industry in Kenya is also dependent on climatic conditions. One of the largest tourist attractions is the annual wildebeest migration through the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem that covers northern Tanzania and South Western Kenya. This movement is influenced by the weather as millions of wildebeest move in search of green pastures. With changes in precipitation patterns, this process could be altered. The Kenyan coast is also an important tourist attraction. Rising sea levels will lead to damaged corals and change the beaches (WWF, 2015). The manufacturing industry needs a reliable supply of electric energy. Currently, 60%of Kenya’s electricity is hydro. Rainwater flowing through rivers is harnessed and used to turn turbines. Changes in precipitation could mean less rainfall and hence less energy. Such an energy deficit could make it very expensive for manufacturers to operate, resulting in decreased output and less revenue from the manufacturing sector. Hazards refer to those climatic processes that could create losses in the system by adversely affecting the biosphere. Kenya lies within the tropics. As such, the country is not prone to catastrophic hazards such as typhoons. However, there are other relatively mild risks associated with climate change that could affect the economy of the country. Some of these hazards are discussed below. i. Erratic rainfall As discussed earlier, most of the agricultural activities in Kenya depend on natural rainfall. Thus, irregular supply of rain would automatically lead to reduced productivity. However, there is no conclusive prediction on the amount of rainfall that will be received in future. Some studies indicate that the quantity of rainfall will increase while others predict a reduction in certain months. An increase would lead to greater productivity as experienced in 1997. Changes in precipitation could also affect other aspects of the eco-system. Such effects could result in migration of wildlife and affect tourism. During a major drought in 2009, the Amboseli National Park lost about three thousand zebras(Kenya Wildlife Service, 2009). ii. Temperatures Scientific projections indicate that temperatures will increase by 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2065(Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009). Such an increase would affect agriculture because it would change the weather conditions of certain areas. The result would be that some regions may not be able to support crops that were traditionally grown there. It could also mean that plants that could not grow in certain areas could start growing well. Whether these two interpretations work for or against productivity will depend on how well the government is prepared to research and advice farmers accordingly. An increase in temperatures would also mean that areas that were initially malaria-free could experience malaria outbreaks as conditions become more favorable for the anopheles mosquito. An increase in temperatures would also lead to a rise in sea levels. Such an increase could affect tourism as coral reefs are damaged, and beaches change (WWF, 2015). iii. Extreme Weather While studies are not conclusive, it is reasonable to expect an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Frequent severe weather events in Kenya are floods and droughts. Even without climate change, the severity of droughts is bound to increase in future due to demographic factors (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009). Floods cause losses to life, property and farm produce. Floods are usually associated with disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks strain the economy further. Adaptive Capacity Any country’s ability to adapt to climate change depends on the strength of the following key determinants. i. Economic resources ii. Infrastructure iii. Technology iv. Availability of information v. Institutions vi. Access to resources If a country scores well in these determinants, it is likely to be moreable to adapt. The determinants are discussed below with particular reference to Kenya. i. Economic resources The World Bank rates Kenya as a low-income country. The country has very limited financial resources. Thus, its ability to institute measures to mitigate the effects of climate change is highly limited. However, Kenya enjoys a cordial relationship with many developed countries. Thus, additional resources may be available in the form of donations and grants. ii. Infrastructure Recent discoveries of oil reserves could mean that Kenya may not continue to be a net importer of petroleum. In the current state, energy costs are quite high. Thus, mechanization of farms is limited by cost. It is hard to predict the infrastructure situation over the temporal reference period. However, chances are that there will be a significant development. Better infrastructure would improve the country’s adaptive capacity. iii. Technology Appropriate technology enables the implementation of measures that ensure productivity remains high. Appropriate technology makes farming more efficient and diversifies the production of energy. Currently, Kenya is increasing production of geothermal and wind energy. Such alternatives will reduce the country’s reliance on hydro-electric power. The Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) spearheads research aimed at developing drought and pest-resistant crop varieties. With such developments, the country may be better placed to respond to climate change. iv. Availability of Information Kenya is a democratic state with the right to information enshrined in the constitution. Thus, individuals and institutions have access to all necessary information that could help in devising ways of handling the effects of climate change. v. Institutions Like many other developing countries, Kenyan lacks reliable and efficient institutions. Institutions like KARI rely mainly on donor funding to carry out research. Corruption also affects the effectiveness of these systems in dispensing their mandates. It is a major drawback to the country’s adaptive capacity. vi. Access to Resources A country whose citizens have equitable access to resources is more adaptive to climate change. In Kenya, the ASALs do not have sufficient access to essential resources. As a result, these areas are not well developed, and people lack access to necessary social amenities. Such communities are less adaptive to climate change. Conclusion Climate change will affect important sectors of the Kenyan economy. The country does not have a sufficient adaptive capacity to deal with the effects of climate change. The current and future governments have a responsibility of ensuring that they streamline governance and develop capacity. Failure to do that will leave the economy very vulnerable to climate change. Such susceptibility could lead to a severe crisis as the government could be rendered unable to provide essential services. References Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, (2010). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 (p. 9). Rome: FAO. Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, (2013). Kenya Economy Report 2013 (pp. 1-114). Nairobi: KIPPRA. Kenya Wildlife Service, (2009). Impact of the 2009 Drought on Wildlife, Livestock and Tourism. In Impact of the 2009 Drought on Wildlife, Livestock and Tourism (p. 8). Nairobi: KWS. National Environment Management Authority, (2015). Effect of Climate Change in Kenya (pp. 1-8). Nairobi: NEMA Kenya. Stockholm Environment Institute, (2009). Economics of Climate Change - Kenya. Stockholm: SEI. The World Bank, (2015). Kenya | Data. Data.worldbank.org. Retrieved 28 May 2015, from http://data.worldbank.org/country/kenya UNFCC, (2015). List search. Unfccc.int. Retrieved 28 May 2015, from http://unfccc.int/files/documentation/text/html/list_search.php?%20zwhat=keywords&val=&valan=a&anf=0&id=10 Waithaka, M., Nelson, G., Thomas, T., & Kyotalimye, M. (2013). East African Agriculture and Climate Change (pp. 5-28). Washington D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. WWF, (2015). Climate change impacts in Kenya. Wwf.panda.org. Retrieved 28 May 2015, from http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/rising_temperatures/hotspot_map/kenya.cfm Read More