Two important claims are taken into consideration 1. International claims, 2. Local currency claims and more important is their ratio i.e. International Claims / Local Currency Claims ratio. This ratio is analysed for 28 years starting from 1983 to 2010. The ratio is computed at the end of each year (December) and only for 2010 it is computed on June since 2010 has not ended so far. Once the ratio is computed, it is easy to know the trend and the regression equation involved in it so that the future projection can be easily predicted.
From the above table and graph, it is observed that the ratio is having highest mean for Developed countries and lowest for Offshore centres. The Coefficient of variation is the lowest (33.41%) in developed countries which shows that the developed countries have consistent performance of the ratio (between Local Currency and Global currency). So it indicates that all other countries would prefer to exchange their currencies with the currencies of developed countries.
The trend chart shows that the developed countries had a steep fall / slump in the year 1997 over the previous year (because of significant improvement in cross border claims over the local claims which reflects series break that year from the inclusion of derivative positions) and a moderate surge in the year 1999 over the previous year. Except this the performance is satisfactory for the developed countries. The ratio for developing countries is steadily increasing and showed consistent performance.
Usually in regression analysis, one variable is considered as dependent variable and the other variable(s) is/are considered to be independent variable(s). Here in this study, we have taken year from 1983 as independent variable and Local currency claims on local residents/Total international claims ratio for all countries ratio as dependent variable. So the regression equation is fitted to find the relationship between these