Capability of the Established Emergency Management Strategies in Sweden - Case Study Example

Hazard and Risk Management Student name Institution Professor Class City Date of submission Introduction The Swedish National Risk Assessment 2012 constitutes a process that collectively develops an extensive and method to prevent and manage diverse events within the scope of operations (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 38). The report that is a national risk assessment carried out in 2011 identifies most of the common risks in the region with an attempt to reduce such risks through the determination of their likelihood. Through a joint assessment that includes the administrators, municipal and county officers and the public, the report produces pertinent information that will be later used by the Swedish government to establish a defined mechanism for curbing both natural and accidental risks. Scale in the risk matrix Quantitative scale, Human impact Quantitative scale, Economic/Environmental impact Qualitative scale Political/ Social impact Very significant ≥ 50 dead and/or >100 severely injured >SEK 1 billion Very serious Significant 10–49 dead and/or 50–100 severely injured SEK 500 million– SEK 1 billion Serious Average 2–9 dead and/or 10–49 severely injured SEK 100–499 million Serious Minor 1 dead and/or 1–9 severely injured SEK 20–99 million Minor Minimal No deaths or serious injuries, a number of minor injuries Less than SEK 20 million Minimal Figure 1: The impact scales of disasters in UK The national risk assessment organ operates under the guidance of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, MSB, and the EU cooperation. The assessment report aims at establishing more defined mechanisms of reducing the frequented risks in Sweden and the neighboring regions. Similarly, the report aims at creating an understanding of the existing risks and an analysis of the capability of the established emergency management strategies (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 44). Additionally, the author notes the need to establish more developed emergency plans to curb the rising national-leveled risks. Through the inclusion of the private organizations, the report aims at developing a civil protection and emergency preparedness model that will operate both locally and regionally. In the report, Sweden plans to use a collaborative model with other countries to develop a capacitive management and preventive strategy to cope with the rising large-scale accidents (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 44). Summary The books use a six-step methodology: The authors denote that the methods are inseparable. The author brings out that the first step to risk management and prevention is the specification of the risk. At the specification stage, the risk enlisting of the risks in order of priority is established to ensure the handling of the most probable risks first. The second stage is the risk identification that ensures an analysis of the specific risk. The risk identification is a joint event that brings together various organizations both at the county and national levels. The participants submit their views on the various risks through the guidelines catalogued in the by the MSB. The third stage is the selection of the risks for analyzes. The provided risks by the participants are used by the MSB to determine the most likely event (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 38). The selection process bases on the severity of the risk. Therefore, the prevention scheme develops the scenario and analyzes the risk to initiate the process of developing the best-suited measures. The last stage involves the synthesis and evaluation of the risk. Though not fully developed, the NSR report focuses on using that methodology to establish the desired measures to curb the rising risks in Sweden. Figure 2: Risk assessment stages (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 27) The assessments on both the scenarios of 2013 and 2015 focus mainly on workshops as the model of operation. Notably, the assessment mechanism applied only incorporates experts in disaster management who takes part in the evaluation process. The evaluation provides a qualitative analysis of the impending risk such the extensive disruption to GNSS, fuel shortage that contributes to reduced food supply and a school shooting (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 48). The survey that depends on free and open responses might provide wrong information, which is likely to create incorrect management and preventive models. The research design, which constituted a series of the survey, is never the final perception of the probability of a risk. The purpose of the assessment is defined by the underlying complexities that require quantitative analysis as well as qualitative information from the interested parties. Such scenarios have defined matrix as shown in the graph below. The uncertainty assessment risk ranges from high to low as shown by the black to white coloration respectively. Figure 3: Risk matrix for various analysed scenarios (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 23) The assessments focus on human pandemics such as diseases, showing their variance in nature and scale. According to the author, the pandemics of such diseases tend to change over time. For instance, the pandemics of influenza in the past five years tend to be different from the present circulating influenza viruses. The author notes that the prevalence and incidence of the infections of the disease have changed over 20 years within a specified population. The authors use the previous data to assert the possibility of occurrence of another influenza pandemic at a time that is unknown. For instance, at 2009, H1N1 influenza hit most parts of the world contributing to the loss of poultry and humans. Similarly, in 1996 H5N1 also rose in the South East Asia causing massive loss as well. Nevertheless, the probability of occurrence of infectious diseases has reduced over the past years in the UK. With the development of influenza immunity drugs at almost all health facilities, the likelihood of occurrence of the disaster is almost zero (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 24). However, most regions in the area might face a different infectious disease than influenza. The emergence of new diseases is more predictable than the reemergence of the previously existing diseases. The risk of flooding is the other important risk identified in the NRR report. According to the report, flooding especially coastal flooding is one of the most probable risks in the UK. The main cause of the risk is the rising temperatures (National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2015, 48). The aim of the assessment is to create a preventive and management model that will curb the frequent emergence of the flooding risks in the region. The method of assessment involved, however, depends on the various secondary sources other than the first-hand analysis of the impending situations. Critique Methodology According to the author, the model of assessment only applies the qualitative information about the occurrence of the risk rather than the exact degree of the risks. However, a proper assessment model must analyze the impending statistics of the prevalence and incidence of the disaster. An effective preventive model incorporates the outlines of the National Planning Assumptions regarding specific tasks (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 52). Regardless of the need to manage and prevent the existing flooding especially coastal flooding, specific criteria are important. The Resilience and Emergency department asserts that a collective or collaborative communication model is with the Department of Communication and Local Government is important as it creates an awareness before the onset of the project. This is contrary to the underlying studies which assert that rapid response is better than communication in all situations. Situational analysis of reemergence of risk The authors also outline poor air quality as a risk that requires an assessment to reduce its potential reemergence in the near future. According to the NRR report, the prevalence and incidence of the risk are notable in many regions though over a short time. Although the purpose of the assessment is to reduce the ozone gasses that continue to accumulate in the environment due to industrialization, the study of those gases at the industries’ level is more important than focusing on the air itself. From the information, the author deduced the possibility of the occurrence of the incidence in the near future. The author does not provide any quantitative analysis of the assessment, but rather uses the qualitative analysis especially regarding the secondary data to establish an assessment design. The understanding of the model limits the assessment to the existing phenomena without providing the essentials of other assessment mechanisms that can affect the operations of the assessment. The Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) in collaboration with the local and national government outlines the assessment mechanisms of controlling the emitted gasses to limit their concentrations. The model of assessment under study in the NRR report only applied the principle concept of the daily quality Index (DAQI) in their selection criteria. The criteria of assessment and determining the probability of occurrence do not provide a complete understanding of the cycle of emissions of gasses to the atmosphere. The report does not provide the multi-agency model of the elevated levels of emissions. Similarly, no proactive dissemination of information is present during the assessment procedure posing the challenge of recovery from the incidence (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 43). A similar phenomenon is also evident in the Swedish NRR that depends on workshops in the assessment plan. The workshop brings together varied entities under the umbrella of the County Administrative Board. The illustration of the probability of future failures The impact assessment of the dams in Sweden demonstrates a possibility of future failure of such dams. Approximated 200 dams out of the 10,000 dams in Sweden fail creating major impacts on health, life and environment just to mention a few (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, 2012, 24). The analysis of such incidences is important in determining the best mitigation model that would ensure reduction. It is necessary to understand the need for mitigation and assessment of such natural disasters to help in providing the most suited preventive and management strategies. However, the report does not outline the most efficient mitigation strategy that is likely to ensure proper prevention of the disaster. The failure of the country’s largest dam is an occurrence that has minimal likelihood of repetitive action. A more defined assessment is essential in creating the best assessment base rather than basing the argument on the underlying data, which seems wrong in this scenario. Due to the development of technology, the possibility of dam failures is minimized. Therefore, the possibility of occurrence of the incidence is never possible. Consequently, the proper informative analysis is essential before continuation with the mitigation plan. Emergency preparedness and management structural According to Cabinet Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (2012, 48), emergency preparedness and management requires a defined structure that incorporates all the departments concerned. According to the information of the International Search and Rescue Team, assessment depends on the responding mechanisms to humanitarian accidents rather than the natural phenomena. Such accidents are always predictable, and the emergency departments are capable of outlining the specific preventive and management schemes to prevent future occurrences. The success of any mitigation organization depends on the underlying factors and is likely to affect the results of the mitigation plan. Conclusion In short, the disaster prevention and management is the central role of any government together with the county government. To ensure efficient disaster preparation and management, the involvement of the public is important. A consideration of the geography of UK shows its proneness to disaster. Therefore, more institutions that adequately deal with disaster preparedness and management should be established. Although it is difficult to prevent natural disasters, it is possible to reduce the prevalence and incidence of such disasters. The emergence of disasters tends to affect the economic status of every country. Therefore, preparedness is vital in reducing or preventing such dire consequences. The focus on prevention should maintain continuous assessment both locally, nationally and internationally. References National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. (2015). National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. (2012). 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