Performance of the Vodafone Company for the Last Two Years - Assignment Example

Performance of the Vodafone Company for the Last Two Years Question 1: Performance of the Company for the last two years, viz.fiscals 2009 and 2008. Serial Description 2009 figures £ 2008 figures £ variance +/- £ A B C. D E Profitability Ratios : (1) Gross Profit (GP) Ratio (2) Net Profit (NP) Ratio (3) Basic Earnings Power (4) Return on Total Assets (5) Return- common investments ROI Diluted EPS Dividends paid Liquidity ratios : (1) Current ratio (2) Quick ratio Asset performance ratios : (1) Inventory turnover ratio (2) Limits of sales outstanding (days) (3) Fixed assets turnover (4) Total assets turnover Debt Management (1) Total debts to total assets ( Appendix 1 attached ) 37.99 7.50 2.74 2.01 3.57 0.59 0.95 46.62 45.14 99.67 68.00 2.13 0.26 27.62 38.29 19.04 7.07 5.30 8.97 1.25 0.70 39.70 37.80 85.05 66.47 2.11 0.27 21.36 (-) 0.30 (-) 11.54 (-) 4.33 (-) 3.29 (-) 5.40 (-)0.66 (+)0.25 (+)6.92 (+) 7.34 (+) 14.62 (-) 1.53 (+) 0.03 (-) 0.01 (+) 6.26 From the above it is discernable that the rate net profits have reduced substantively over the last year and is just single digits this year. Besides, other parameters of profitability of the company has also reduced, may be due to the fact that “Despite its aggressive expansion, Vodafone continues to be faced with intense competition in its core markets in Western Europe from wired and wireless network operators and resellers … More recently, the company announced in 2009 that layoffs will be used as a cost-cutting measure.” (Vodafone Group plc: overview, 2009). It is also seen that another reason for the loss in profitability could be attributed to the need to reduce termination fees for mobile subscribers, as well as respond to competitive overtures by reducing fees for different services which could impact its bottom line. There has been a 17% increase of SG & A expenses (from £6385.4 to £7507.1) which may have let to reduction in net profits and earnings. Again, reduction in total assets may have been due to the increase in Depreciation and Amortization by 16%, from £5893 to £ 6812.3. (Vodafone Group plc: income statement, 2009). Asset Performance Ratios: Return on Assets = Net Income / Total Assets = 2009= 4224.6/153996.9 = 2.74% 2008 = 8966.3/126779.3 = 7.07% Fixed Assets Turnover = Turnover / Net Fixed Assets = 2009= 41,365.6/19,413.6= 2.13 2008= 35,341.2/16,670.5= 2.11 Total assets turnover = Turnover/total assets = 2009= 41,365.6/153,996.9= 0.26 2008= 35,341.2/126,779.3= 0.27 Investment ratios: Return on Capital employed = EBIT/Capital employed = 2009= 4224.6/ ( 153,996.9- 42,542.6) = 4224.6/111454.3 = 3.79% 2008= 8966.3/ (126779.3-27,089) = 8966.3/ 99690.3 = 8.99% However, it is necessary to come to an important aspect of Business that is Return on Investments. (ROI) This is an important ratio, “As the primary objective of business is to maximise its earnings, this ratio indicates the extent to which this primary objective of business is being achieved….. As this ratio reveals how well the resources of a firm are being used, the higher the ratio, better are the results.” (Gupta & Sharma, 2005, p.4.64). In the case of Vodafone there has been a substantial decline in ROI by nearly 5 percentage points, which would affect the psyches of investors who would want to invest in shares of this company. The consistency factor in revenues and profits, which are critical elements for investment decisions, seen to be missing in the context of Vodafone. However, it is heartening to see that despite lower profits, dividend payouts have been consistent in the company and, as a matter of fact, it is up by 0.25% this year, indicating the confidence and trust placed by the company on its shareholders and future profit making capabilities. The silver lining on the Vodafone horizon could be its liquidity position which is improving in terms of the fact that both current and quick ratio has gone up by nearly 7%. Thus, they are now in a better position to meet future current liabilities, having roughly 1:2 ratio. These liquidity ratios are important since they measure the “ability of a firm to pay its short-term obligations as and when they become due.” (Gupta & Sharma, 2005, p.4.14). In the event of incapacity to pay off debts, the firm loses a lot of its goodwill and credit worthiness. But fortunately in the case of Vodafone this has not happened and the firm is quite solvent. With an increase of 27 % over debt management in the previous year, it is seen that the debt burden is increasing. It would thus be necessary for Vodafone to review its buying policies and supply chain management systems with vendors and creditors. From the above analysis, it could be said that the year 2009 has both good and bad tidings for Vodafone. While having scored higher then the last fiscal, in areas of liquidity, debt management and inventory turnover, the annual profits of the company has come down by around 12%, perhaps to the world wide downscaling and lowered spending, lower energy prices, that has also hit the telecom business and the greater impact of competitiveness. By far the most important impact of the business would be in terms of its Returns on Investments. (ROI) “Return on Investment (ROI) is calculated to measure the performance of one investment relative to another. ROI is expressed as a percentage and is based on returns over an associated time period, usually one year.” (How to calculate a return on an investment, 2009). In the case of Vodafone, it is seen that upon comparisons of the two years, the return on investments has reduced from 8.97% to 3.57%. This could be due to impact of competition, technological changes, seasonal fluctuations and impact of recessionary trends in the business, or other factor that have adversely affected the business over short time, but which could be remedied in the long run. It is necessary that since stakeholders would play a more dominant part in future of Vodafone, it is necessary that profit margins are increased in future to meet commitments to shareholders and other stakeholders 2. Potential financial implication of recent events and its effect on Vodafone’s share price: “Alone among big European markets, the UK has five network operators: Telefónica’s O2, Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile and 3.” (Parker, 2009). As per the press release in July 09 the revenue of the Vodafone has been increased up to £10.7bn when considering the recent financial quarter. “But while Vodafone has shown signs of combating the recession, some areas of weakness remain said Raymond Yu, analyst with market watcher Ovum.” (Bailey, 2009). “Last November Vodafone's new chief executive, Vittorio Colao, announced a plan to save £1bn, designed to deal with tough trading in many of its core European markets and provide the business with funds to invest in new services. In May, Colao said those initial cost savings would be delivered by March 2010.” (Wray, 2009). The figure (appendix – 2) is the chart showing the variation in the share prices for 2008 and 2009. It can do down and up based on the market movements. The price of Vodafone’s share has been decreasing when compared to the last years share price. If the total earnings are reduced ultimately in the stock market the value for the Vodafone share also decreases. The buyers of the share will not be confident to invest their money in the Vodafone share because they fear that they might loose their money if invested. The adverse economic condition which includes the increasing recession, slowdowns in the market affects the share price. “The share price is a reflection of the company’s financial situation and how well it is considered to be performing relative to its market.” (Principles of investment, 2001, p.2). The banks are not providing credit for the company and it is not able to increase the profitability of the concern. The share price of the company is very much related to the profitability of the concern. It has been shown that the company’s earnings for this year have been reduced and the investors expect that the company’s future is not much safer. So instead of buying the investors will sell the share and this will reduce the share price of the Vodafone. “The company stated that the new workforce reductions are meant to enable the business to “compete more effectively” in UK, which is the fourth largest market in the European area.”  (Arghire, 2009).It was said that the job cuts are done for the future benefit for the company. “The job cuts are part of its plan to slash annual operating expenses by £1bn by April 2011.” (Arghire, 2009). The people are in fear that they might lose their job and they are not able to pay the tariffs. “Cash-strapped customers used their phones less while abroad, made less pre-paid phone calls and looked for as many benefits as possible from packaged phone deals, all of which hit the phone operator's UK business.” (O’Sullivan, 2009). In such situations the customers will reduce their consumption and are not able to pay the tariffs. This reduced consumption will affect the demand for the Vodafone by skipping to the low cost products of the competitors. This decreased demand for the product there by decreases the profitability of the concern and the value of Vodafone’s share. The profitability indicated that the organization is earning a satisfactory profit. The profitability greatly influences the liquidity and gearing ratio of the organization. Even there is an increase in profitability some organization will fail to generate cash. In such situations it will not be able to pay off the expenses, loan falling and creditors. Therefore whatever be the profitability the organization should maintain a favorable liquidity ratio. This shows that the liquidity ratio is favorable for the company. The decrease in profitability tremendously affects the gearing ratio. This will affect the borrowing capacity of the company to its share holder’s fund. “Orange and T-Mobile have merged to form a new UK mobile phone giant, taking 37% of the mobile market to form the UK's largest mobile phone company. The new mobile company will have over 30 million users, leapfrogging current market leaders Vodafone and O2.” (Orange and T mobiles massive merger confirmed, 2009). The T- mobile is merging to Orange to become a new super power in the UK mobile market. The company has correlated a potential movement to catch the rival T-mobile UK. This potential movement will help the organization to gain a 40% share of the market in terms of revenues and 50% share of the customers with 150m subscribers in UK. “Vodafone's chief executive Vittorio Colao recently said his company was willing to play an active role in such moves between operators.” (O’Sullivan, 2009). Increased competition in the business environment has lead to the reduction in the market share and revenue. “Increased competition has also led to declines in the prices the Group charges for its mobile services and is expected to lead to further price declines in the future.” (Vodafone, 2009). When the revenue decreases the investor’s confident in the company also decreases and forces the company to decrease its share price. The major things that the firm is able to meet its competition is the quality of network, coverage and capacity, pricing of the services and equipments, the customer services, sales and distribution channels and finally the capital resources. The company also faces competition from the internet based services providers. As the mobile telecommunication market is becoming more penetrating, the company has changed its focus from customer acquisition to customer retention. The company uses the churn rate to measure the rate of customer deactivations. 3. A Potential Strategy that could be deployed to counter the negative effects of the credit crisis: The financial market has become more unstable due to the continuous changes that are taking place in the domestic and international financial markets. The financial market has become more unstable due to the continuous changes that are taking place in the domestic and international financial markets. The multinational corporations as well as the domestic firms are likely to face the financial risks equally. They must ensure that they are able to manage the financial risks and the credit crisis. “A crisis that occurs when several financial institutions issue or are sold high-risk loans that start to default.” (Credit crisis, 2009). “Last November Vodafone's new chief executive, Vittorio Colao, announced a plan to save £1bn, designed to deal with tough trading in many of its core European markets and provide the business with funds to invest in new services. In May, Colao said those initial cost savings would be delivered by March 2010.” (Wray, 2009). It requires a comprehensive understanding about the financial crisis for any investors to be successful. Any person who does not have a clear idea regarding the financial condition cannot be successful in the financial market. Before investing a particular amount into the share we must be very clear about the company in which we are going to invest. The market value for the company’s share must be taken into consideration and proper analysis has to be done in order to avoid future losses because the market is fluctuating any at any time profit either profit or loss can happen. The value of the share changes according to the market fluctuations. “This quarterly contraction is the sixth consecutive contraction, the worst run of figures that UK gross domestic product (GDP) has experienced since records began 54 years ago.” (How to retire in financial stability, 2009). “A financial instrument whose characteristics and value depend upon the characteristics and value of an underlier, typically a commodity, bond, equity or currency.” (Derivative: definition, n.d.). Financial Derivatives used by Vodafone plc UK: The Vodafone implements financial derivatives that can be used for controlling the financial risks emerging in the foreign exchange rates and in the interest rates. The use of the financial derivatives is decided based on the company policies that are approved by the board of directors. In Vodafone there is a written principle that is followed while using financial derivatives. The company does not use the financial derivatives for the purposes that are speculative in nature. The derivative financial instruments are usually measured at a normal value on the date of contract and that is subsequently re-measured against the fair value at a specific time of reporting. The Vodafone employs certain derivatives such as “hedges of the change of fair value of recognized assets and liabilities (‘fair value hedges’); or hedges of net investments in foreign operations.” (Vodafone group plc: annual report, 2009, p.81). Fair value hedges: This derivative is used by the company to convert the proportion of the rate of debt that is fixed to the floating rates. This is mainly used by the Vodafone to hedge the interest rate risks that are mostly arising from the borrowings from the capital market. This derivative recognizes the income statements of the company and also recognizes the changes that are occurring in a period of time that happens due to the hedged risk. The company finds this type of hedging to be effective. In the income statement the ineffective proportions are immediately recognized. “Using derivatives, it is possible to construct similar trades based on tiny variations in observed historical relationships among a multitude of economic variables.” (Jickling, 2008, p.18). Net invest hedges: This helps the company in identifying the difference in the exchanges that are arising from the translation of net investment in the foreign operations. This will be directly recognized by the equity and this type of hedging is considered to be effective. “Gains and losses on those hedging instruments (which include bonds, commercial paper and foreign exchange contracts) designated as hedges of the net investments in foreign operations are recognized in equity to the extent that the hedging relationship is effective.” (Vodafone group plc: annual report, 2009, p.81). By this derivative method the company can identify the gain and loss for the particular period and adopt appropriate measures based on the changes in the earnings by this way the company can overcome the risk in the foreign exchange market. “Swaps: contractual agreements between 2 parties in which each party agrees to exchange a stream of cash for a stipulated period of time based upon certain agreed-upon parameters and the price fluctuations in some underlying specified commodity or market index.” (Derivatives-swaps, n.d., p.1). All the amounts that are hedged in this type of derivatives are stated in recomposed income and expenses statement. The gain and losses are identified immediately that are related to the hedging method are included in the income statement for the specified period of time. When the foreign operations are disposed the gain and losses are accumulated in the translation reserves of the income statement. The other derivatives the company can use to overcome the uncertainty is the Swap derivative. The swap derivatives are mainly used to hedge certain risks such as interest rate risk and it is also used to speculate the changes in the prices in the expected direction. Swaps are considered as the most frequently used traded financial derivatives or contract in the world. The cash flow that is generated by swap is equal to the interest rate at the notional amount. It is advisable for the company to use interest rate swap. This enables the company to gain comparative advantage in the fixed rate market and in the floating rate market. If the company requires borrowing they can gain benefit from the comparative advantage. This derivative is having the capacity to transform the fixed rate loan to a floating rate loan. The valuation of the swap is done by measuring the net present value. The net present value depicts the profitability of the concern and based on this value the company can take necessary steps to overcome the uncertainties. 4. Make recommendations to potential investors considering buying Vodafone’s shares, explaining your reasons and conclusion: Perhaps one of the most distressing areas about investors’ vis-à-vis Vodafone’s shares is that the value is declined from 154.3 P to 127.5 P in this fiscal. (Vodafone group plc: annual report, 2009, p.2). Again, the net profits are also lower than what it were the previous year 2008, which is also key factor that impacts upon decision of potential investors to buy shares in this company. With lowering ROI, investors would not be confident about the safety and marketability of their share holdings, especially in a fiercely competitive business like telecommunication which has many rivals, big and small. Again, price/sales ratio of Vodafone stands at 2.08 which are very low as compared to the market rating. Its share prices need to be hiked possibly through some acquisitions or joint venture schemes, in this industry. “Telefónica Europe Chief Executive Matthew Key Monday said that while Telefónica and Vodafone would continue to compete strongly against each other in local markets, the collaboration agreement would enable enhanced mobile coverage in more locations, using fewer mast sites.” (Carolan, 2009). Price against Cash flow is also an important index of performance and in this area, Vodafone has been lagging very much behind both industry and market standards. Valuation Company Industry1 Market2 Price/Sales Ratio 2.08 2.06 7.05 Price/Earnings Ratio 27.70 18.02 25.64 Price/Book Ratio 0.00 1.99 6.78 Price/Cash Flow Ratio 6.97 8.03 43.86 (Vodafone Group plc: detailed quote (NASDAQ: VOD), 2009). However, the graph as depicted above shows a rising trend in value of shares as on date, which is indeed a heartening sight. Thus, with optimistic views being held about this company’s future share movements, it is possible to require for modest investments for short term purposes. To anybody seeking recommendations before buying shares in Vodafone, it is necessary to seek and watch the price movement for a few months before a final decision could be made. Since Vodafone also operates on a global business, this impact would also be felt in its share prices over time. (Vodafone Group plc: earnings estimates, 2009). According to the chart mentioned above, the earnings estimates for 2010 augurs well and there are increases in prices > However much of the exercise are based on conjectures and we do not know exactly what would be in store for shareholders. Conclusion: It is seen that not only has the profits dipped over the years 2008/9, but other parameters of efficiency and good asset performance has also not performed well. Thus, it is necessary for Vodaphone to take stock of its strengths and weaknesses, and address these issues concurrently and effectively if wishes to compete strongly in the years to come. While competitive prices are indeed critical, Vodaphone perhaps needs to consolidate its price mechanism in consultation with vendors and along its supply chain management system. While European markets may have been saturated for existing products, Vodaphone needs to look eastward where markets are more receptive and resilient. The areas where Vodaphone scores over its rivals need to be reinforced, and should form the thrust of its advertising and marketing programs, while robust strategies need to be chalked out and implemented in other areas so as not to lose acquired ground. Vodaphone’s partners and joint venture associations on a global scale needs to be brought on a common platform not only for sharing technologies and innovative practices but also to seek out ways and means to consolidate their hold on the global telecommunication industry. It could be said that much would depend upon how quickly the economy would be able to regain its composure after the global crisis. Vodafone is an acknowledged giant in the world of telecommunication service providers and is poised for good growth and expansion in future too. However, its Board of Directors need to consider the impact of various decisions taken on the long term prospects of the company. There is also need for a more systematic and planned financial control mechanism that could positively address any imbalances or deficiencies in the system. It is also necessary that proper tools for alleviating risks of investing nature, be made, including greater use of options, forward contracts and hedging. This to a very large extent, reduces risk exposure and chances of losses for the investors. “Hedging on the other hand is done by a firm or individuals to protect against a price change that would otherwise negatively affect profit.” (Brigham & Ehrhardt, 2004, p.932). APPENDIX 1 (1) Gross Profit (GP) Ratio for 20009 : 15,304/41,365.6 = 37.99 Gross Profit (GP) Ratio for 2008: 13,535.6/35,341.2 = 38.29 (2) Net Profit (GP) Ratio for 20009 : 3106.2/41,365 = 7,50 Net Profit (GP) Ratio for 2008: 6730/35,341.2 = 19.04 (3) EBIT for 2009 = 4224.6/ 153996.9 = 2.74 EBIT for 2008 = 8966.3/ 126,779.3 = 7.07 (4) Return on total assets for 2009 = 3106.2/ 153,996.9 = 2.01 Return on total assets for 2008 = 6730/ 126,779.3 = 5.30 (5) ROI for 2009 = 3106.2/86,894.4 = 3.57 ROI for 2008 = 6730/ 75,012.6 = 8.97 (6) Current asset ratio for 2009 = 13139.7/28184.5 = 46.62 Current asset ratio for 2008 = 8690.4/21,888.3 = 39.70 (7) Quick ratio for 2009= 13139.7- 415.4/28,184.5 = 45.1 Quick ratio for 2008= 8690.4- 415.4/ 21,888 = 37.80 (8) Inventory turnover ratio for 2009 = 41365.6/415.5 = 99 Inventory turnover ratio for 2008 = 35,341.2/ 415.5 = 85 (9) Days sales outstanding for 2009= 7804.8X 360/41,365.6 = 68 days Days sales outstanding for 2008= 6525.7X 360/ 35,341.2 = 66 days (10 ) Fixed assets to sale for 2009 = 41,365.6/19413.6 = 2.13 Fixed assets to sale for 2008 = 35,341.2/16,670.5 = 2.11 (11) Total assets to sale for 2009= 41,365.6/153,996.9 = 0.26 Total assets to sale for 2008= 35,341.02/126,779.3 = 0.27 ( 12) Total debts to totals assets for 2008 = 42,542.6/153996.9 = 27.62 Total debts to totals assets for 2009 =27089.0/126779.3 = 21.36 APPENDIX – 2 Share price for Vodafone (VOD) Current 140.00 Change +2.90 (+2.12%) Volume 0 Trade high 140.00 Trade low 137.05 (Vodafone Group plc USDo.11 3/7 (VOD), 2009). 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