Memorandum on the 2012 presidential elections - Essay Example

?Memorandum on the presidential elections Background: The 2008 presidential elections marked a defining moment in U.S history, elections which saw the election of U.S president Barrack Obama as first African-American president, the election of president Obama came after series of events which culminated in the election of the first black president. At that time as we all remember, the U.S economy and the whole world was passing through a difficult phase, the 2008 economic crisis had just set in, and with it emancipated and came to light all the flaws that had encumbered the last presidential term which saw the start of the worst crisis ever to hit the world economy ever since the “Crash of Wall street” in 1929, a crisis that saw the embezzlement of the hard earned money and assets of the US citizens away from them down the drain. The whole US economy was severely shaken and the US policy on economy was put in question, a question to which no one had the answer, except one man, and that man was “Barrack Obama”, after devouring his opponent “John McCain” in every single presidential debate specially when it came to answering for the economical goofs that the previous administration had made, senator Obama was elected president. The whole world held its breath and waited to see what the young president had to offer, they’d all granted him not only their votes but their utter confidence and allegiance as well, the 2008 elections saw the collecting of a colossal unprecedented 700 million US dollars in campaign money that funded the 44th US president’s campaign and guaranteed him the title of 44th US president, the majority of Americans believed in change and they believed in the promises their president swore to honor. So much was the support evident and unanimous that the Obama handily secured states like North Carolina and Virginia, states that had long been loyal to the republicans. To put it briefly, what the democrat candidate had done was extraordinary, he’d flipped the tide in many key states and swayed a big number of voters who all put their faith and trusted president Obama. The newly elected president was quick to deliver on his promises as he immediately instigated a rough campaign which culminated in the implementation of a Universal Health Care policy throughout all US soil, a first victory claimed by the democrats, but yet another and many other victories were to follow, major changes in student loan programs, reforms that have to do with financial regulation…. And last but surely not least came the news about the liquidation of public enemy Number 1, Osama Bin Laden, leader of the terrorist organization Al Qaeda, who orchestrated the monstrous 9/11 attacks, Bin Laden who had for long been considered the most wanted criminal in the world and who’s mere mention of his name ignites storms of fury and grief in every American’s heart. Sadly and despite all the accomplishments that Barrack Obama had done, a bittersweet taste was all that was reserved for president Obama as the complexity of the US economic crisis proved too much for Mr. Obama to handle which in turn led to the undermining of the democrats’ chances in securing a 2010 congress majority. The economy had played a trick on the US administration and cost the democrats the November 2010 midterm elections, as it were to seem the US population cared about nothing more than their economy, only a striving economy meant a striving presidency and as far as the electors were concerned, a striving economy was far-fetched with the democrats in power. The November 2010 elections dealt a powerful blow to president Obama and left looming away from all the other issues and focusing on the economy for as it had turned out it is only this that can guarantee him a safe pass to another term in the 2012 presidential elections. President Obama will be hoping to replicate what Bill Clinton had done in 1997 by being the first democrat president to be re-elected since World War II, but for this to happen he must make sure to find a way to deal with the looming economic tasks that haunt him like reducing the unemployment rate which has reached a ceiling of 10% high recently, but for such daunting tasks to be done the president can no longer count on the support of the majority of congress which stands as a fierce opponent to all his policies, and with the his presidential fate hanging on the balance the president must now find ways to counter this republican congress majority by all sorts of different ways. Discussion: The “Checks and Balances” system inspired by John Locke’s writings on political philosophy stands at the heart of the American balance of power, the president, which to many, may seem like an absolute monarch has actually his powers and prerogatives checked by both the congress and the supreme court (the judicial branch) , so basically the president’s executive powers can easily be undermined by the objection of congress. The president which is as some may view as the “incarnation of the executive powers” has a huge counterweight that stands firmly between him and absolute power. The legislative body as sought by the forefathers is often seen acting as a “whip”, making the president give in to the congressmen’s visions and idea of things, it is this type of “gridlock” that occurs when the majority of the house doesn’t share the same point of view as the president. We find ourselves now in the midst of such a gridlock where the president finds himself stranded without a majority to backup his policies, president Obama needs to understand that the rules of the game have changed since 2010, pre midterm elections plan of action cannot be the same as post midterm elections plan of action, things go differently now, and every little decision that needs congress’ approval is now subject to a kind of political compromise, a kind of trade, a sort of give and take. Once president Obama understands the new balance of power he’ll know how to deal with this new reality. Obama now realizes that he can’t be very sturdy and stiff in his policies as before, because the only way to deal with this gridlock is with compromise, he must first give in to some republican demands for the republicans to allow him to go through with his vision of things, he must learn how to alter his vision so that it fits the republican mold more or less without losing its democrat taste. While Obama should not be as stiff and sturdy with his policies as before he must also take great care not to show himself too weak as after the BP incident and the disasters that followed, disasters which shall forever leave an impact on the ecosystem not only in the Gulf of Mexico but in the whole world, president Obama showed several weak points, of which his indecisiveness was most striking, the congressmen are using this weakness to capitalize and implement their vision of things, compromise should be learned and perfected as an art and used in a way that hurts the least possible the president’s policies, the president should know when to compromise and must also know when to stand tall and firm heightening the ceiling of demands. President Obama should be very diplomatic in dealing with all issues, because simply put he can’t afford not to be like so, he must show to the world that he truly deserves the title politician, a politician with a sharp wit and a sharper tongue with which he can persuade and clinch compromises and laws from congress, laws necessary to implement his policies. In fact about this particular notion, Richard Neudstat in his book “presidential power and modern presidents” has this say: "The presidency is not a place for amateurs. The sort of expertise can hardly be acquired without deep experience in political office. The presidency is a place for men of politics, but by no means is it a place for every politician (Neustadt 152)." So Obama should make good use of his oratory skills, the same ones that got him to office in the first place but this time to sway the congressmen and not the electors. As mentioned before, Mr. Obama’s oratory skills are critical and will play a key role in his reelection in the 2012 presidential elections if he were to be reelected, those same skills will as well help him get through this gridlock with minimum damage to his reputation and public prestige. President Obama should heed the call of reason and not try to get into direct confrontation with congress, as and as it is well known any battle with congress is a losing one, the forefathers made for the congress to be an effective counterweight facing the presidential prerogatives, and the president, no matter how deviously he can manipulate the constitution’s amendments into his favor will be in no way able to stand in the face of the powerful US congress who’s considered by some to be the most powerful congress in the world, the president may very well be able to veto and successfully prevent from publication any laws seeking to undermine his policies thus guaranteeing the short term survival of his vision but at some time or another he’s going to be in dire need of congress to pass some laws which he deems necessary for the implementation of his policies, not to mention that his plans to short circuit congress and to exclude it from the political equation will be greatly undermined if or rather when he’ll be in need of implementing any new tax laws or when the budget will be an issue, or when laws will need to be voted. So as far as aspects are presented there is no way around congress and almost every major decision must pass by the two chambers, for that the president must be wise enough to know how to effectively cooperate with the republican majority in a way to guarantee the interest and implement the visions of both parties. And while the president might be able to continue waging war on Libya for more than 60 on the counts that there is no direct American interference on Libyan soil and that American boots didn’t set foot on Libyan territory, it would be also wise to reconsider such action, as the congress, unable to react to such an initiative by president will most likely hold a grudge and be throwing monkey wrenches in the works by making the president’s life harder when it comes to internal issues, so the president might need to reconsider such a move on the counts that it might not be such a tactical one if this Libyan War won’t get him any particular political victory that might help him get reelected in a year and seven months. So the president will best do to leave this Libyan mess behind him as victory there won’t reflect any victory on the inside at all, and all that it will do is weigh heavily on the treasury and take precious money away from the president’s hand, money that could otherwise be used in developing the economy and help reduce the unemployment rate, the latter which is a sure to be swinger in the 2012 presidential elections as “Bloomberg National News Poll” reported that 57 percent of Americans disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy and that 45 percent of them assert that if the economy doesn't turn around substantially by election day next year, it will be difficult to vote “Obama”. So president Obama might best do by avoiding a hot conflict with congress by dropping the Libyan issue and shooting instead for the economy by trying to improve the numbers that are hitting record highs in unemployment, this way he’ll have avoided an unnecessary clash with congress, one that could spell mayhem for his policies, and as a bonus he’ll have bought himself some credit that might help his chances in the 2012 presidential elections. President Obama is in quite a penny predicament at the moment, and finding ways to sort everything out between the democrats and republicans can prove at this moment to be a hard task to do, for that, he must and as President of the United States of America and in the power vested in him seek not to assert one party’s vision over the other because that won’t help in any way except make things worse and such a crisis could reflect itself on the economical level which is not in the president’s best interest as such a thing will only make his credibility amongst Americans and congressmen decrease, and cause for his public prestige to dwindle down, but he must actually try to play the role of the mediator because that’s actually what he’s confided and trusted to do by the American forefathers, he must truly be a father to his nation helping it to struggle out of the crisis that’s devouring it. A devout president would at the moment, and especially in a time like this seek national unity, there is no time for political dogfights, and he couldn’t afford such kind of conflicts, the president is to play the role of the judge and moderator, because that’s how he’d like the American people to see him, a man keen on preserving national unity, one that puts the nation’s interest ahead of both party interests, a man that seeks for nothing more than to protect national sovereignty. But for the president to be seen as the sole guarantor of the nation’s interests, what he must practically do is show Americans that he’s not a side in the conflict but actually the key to resolving the conflict, because that’s what Americans seek for in a president, a money time player when it comes down to a game of political “arm wrestling”, a decisive president who can cut everyone short and implement a rescue plan, so far now the perfect rescue plan for both the president’s mandate and the economy would be to form a national unity government, a form of bipartisan government that would serve as a political bait for the republicans, a bait that can get them hooked while getting them on board the national unity boat that can steer the US economy back into safe haven. So from a political standpoint the idea of such a bipartisan government might not be a complete loss to the president as it can serve as an exchange chip in virtue of which he can clinch some necessary majority support vital for the implementation of his economic plan. Doing this can very well prove to be a win-win situation as the president, while integrating the republicans into his government will lose none of his prerogatives as he remains the main player who has direct influence over all his ministers, the main player who can finely administer his cabinet even while facing political discontent from the part of some ministers, in fact and throughout all US history, never has a minister been able to stand up to the president, the former’s role is quite limited by the vast array of presidential powers and prerogatives. So if one were to look at this from a strategic point of view, integrating the republicans into the government would not only help magnify the president’s image as guarantor of national unity and protector of US interests but will also be of practical use in softening the majority’s hard stances against the presidential policies, the thing which will pave the way towards the presidential reform. The president must fully understand the consequences of trying to face the congress head on, such a losing battle can completely dismantle Obama’s chances for a new reelection in 2012, for that he must really take care to be very careful in every word he utters not to upset the republicans because that will do him no good except upsetting his chances of reelection because alas it is them who hold the key to his success at the present moment as all major presidential prerogatives are tightly linked to congress. The president’s policies should at the present moment be all domestically oriented because as reported by the Washington Post on the 7th of June, it is only about the internal issues that the Americans care, especially the economy seeing that it’s the only thing that feeds the population and affects it directly, so the president must be smart in his policymaking, smart enough to know how to exchange his giving in to republicans’ demands on foreign policymaking in favor of their giving in on his domestic policy, the thing is actually that all the major things that the president could do to help improve his image in the eyes of the voters are directly linked to congress and need congress approval, for that, a president must through using his leadership and oratory skills and powers to persuade and then deceive be able to snatch congress approval on certain vital domestic issues which are important for his long term plan and strategy on economy, he must know how to trade with congress, he must know when to heighten the ceiling of his demands and when to lower it. Conclusion: In the end one can say this is the purpose of the American “checks and balances” system, it is a balanced system built on the balance of power between the executive body incarnated in the president and the legislative body (the congress), and for one to be able to succeed and make it through this tug of war of power, he must know when to give in and concede to the other party while also being decisive in one’s demands when those seem to be of vital importance, one must be a successful trader and merchant, knowing what and when to exchange and for what. This delicate balance of power lies at the heart of American politics and rare were those that were able to master this game of balance, president Roosevelt was one of them, and he succeeded in getting elected 4 times, let’s hope that Mr. Obama will also be able to master this game before the 2012 presidential elections and knowing Mr. Obama and with the arsenal of diplomatic weapons that he’s got deeply incarnated in his person, one could only hope for the best. References: Charles Babington, “Obama Wants Big 2012 Campaign Map, GOP Wants Small”, Realclearpolitics.com, June 20 2011, Web, June 22 2011 Read More