Disaster Analysis and Management - Report Example

Disaster Analysis and Management Student’s Name Institution Disaster Analysis and Management Calamities tend to occur suddenly, and in an unplanned manner that leaves the community disrupted, property destroyed in a way that makes it hard for the community to cope with the losses. Disasters are mostly natural occurring but tend to originate from some human activities considered non-harmful at a given time. Classification of accidents takes place according to what causes them. Two classifications of disasters include occurring natural disasters and human-made disasters. Humans mostly cause Climate-related disasters which are encompassed in the natural disaster bracket as most of them are after effects of global warming. There are different accidents which include famines, droughts, earthquakes, storms, wildfires, and much more. Statistics help show which disasters are most futile and research show that climate-related disasters account for most deaths in the past twenty years. The victims caused by the climate-related disaster are high as they are unpredictable and unpreventable in most cases. During the year 2004, a tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean causing the maximum death toll ever witnessed as it affected many countries which share the shores of the ocean. Disasters tend to affect all countries i.e. those with a high income.mid level income and also low-income level countries. As a result disaster awareness is of utmost importance as it helps devise ways in which to avoid them and also how to act when a disaster hits a particular area. Different facilities have come up with models and simulations that help create disaster awareness and also teach people on how to act when a disaster occurs. In this essay, we analyze climate-related disaster such as global warming, what causes it, effects of global warming and also preventive measures applicable in controlling this type of catastrophe. We also analyze the economic, political, and social consequences of disasters and application of input-output analysis in the emergency report. Global warming is the climatic changes that occur in the earth such that the average temperature increases with time. Research has it that since 1950, the earth’s temperature has increased a lot as compared to the current period. However, global warming is caused by natural event and humans in their normal activities, and this cannot be controlled at all times. Thus we can sum up the description of global warming as the overall increase in temperature in the earth’s atmosphere, and it is mainly caused by greenhouse effects which are related to the growth of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and many other pollutions occurring on land. Global warming correlates well to climatic changes as its one of the primary cause of such. Much scientific research’s shows that the atmosphere is warming at an alarming rate and this might have adverse effects on the earth in the future.in a meeting by the intergovernmental panel on climate change. The report concluded that human beings were and still are the primary cause of global warming and this is due to the activities they carry out thus leading to the emission of the most common greenhouse gasses which include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Projections made about the climate show that the temperature is still likely to rise more throughout the 21st century. Most industrialized companies support These conclusions, and more research is being carried out by different scientific bodies concerning the matter. Climatic changes differ from region to region around the world and are related to the activities going on in the area and also the location of the area. There are many anticipated results of climatic change and global warming, and these include a shift in precipitation, droughts, an extension of deserts and rising sea levels. As this effects continue to grow, climate-related disasters are prone to occurring, and thus different nations should stay keen on thus and plan ahead to avoid great calamities by having different control measures. Other likely effects of this include frequently occurring and extreme weather events, heavy rainfall which results to floods in areas with different topographies acidification of the rain and ocean waters and even extinction of certain species of animals which cannot survive such conditions. The biggest problem is that this effects will exist for a long time thus require serious considerations so as to reduce and control them. Many responses by the society are available, and they include the control of emissions, adaptation to its effects and even coming up with technological advancements which are resistant to the effects (Revesz Howard Sterne et al. 2014). Another control measure available is climate engineering. It also referred to as geoengineering which is the intervention concerning the atmosphere by aiming at limiting climate change. This method of disaster mitigation addresses two measures which include removing carbon dioxide from the air and management of solar radiations. Thus climate engineering offers additional steps applicable in controlling climate change effects and also reducing this changes by controlling the causes. It is evident that all means of curbing climate change have many limitations of different natures such as economic, physical, and even political and this calls for research on what constitutes to this limitations. Research is ongoing on how to cut costs, increase benefits and also how to deal with different climatic risks at an early stage to avoid disaster and also to adequately come up with adequate and feasible control measures. The various countries are working jointly to set up laboratories and research centers which help study solar radiation management which is also an effect of global warming. Attempts to use free experimentation methods proved challenging and controversial. Different countries are thus undertaking different practices like planting trees to reduce levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and also use of bioenergy which is not harmful to the environment. Trials on ocean fertilization to remove harmful components are being carried thus sparking a few controversies. The greenhouse effect is one of the leading causes of global warming. It is defined as the natural way the earth heats itself over a period. It is characterized by wakes entering the earth’s atmosphere through radiation, and these emissions are converted to heat energy which has longer wavelengths. The greenhouse gasses takes in this heat thus preventing it from being reflected back into the air. The presence of this gasses helps maintain the average earth temperature, and their absence or pollution leads to a rise in temperatures. Their increase also is harmful to the land and if not controlled becomes dangerous. Apart from different gasses, water vapor also causes global warming. Water vapor in the sky takes the forms of clouds, and though they play a significant role in blocking sun rays, they also act as insulation materials thus increasing the temperature gradually. Temperature increase leads to increase the rate of evaporation which in turn increases the greenhouse effects. The figure above sums up how global warming affects the earth’s atmosphere and its effects, in the long run, .it illustrates possible effects caused by the increase in the earth’s temperature. Human activities play a significant role in causing global warming. Over the last few years, the growing use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Thus is due to the combination of carbon and oxygen gasses during combustion and the release of this gasses into the air (Bondyrev Davitashvili and Singh 2015). Another cause includes increased human activities like deforestation. Trees have a cycle where they take in carbon dioxide and release oxygen, and then deforestation occurs, carbon dioxide increases in the air leading to greenhouse effects. Human influence has been a far-reaching issue now because human does not take care the earth. A person that cause global warming is more than natural causes global warming. The earth has been changing for many years until now it is still changing because of modern lifestyle of a human. Human undertakings include industrial manufacture, burning fossil fuel, mining, cattle rearing or deforestation. The first problem is industrial revolution. Industries use fossil fuels for power machinery. All that we use is involved in fossil fuel. For example, when we buy a mobile phone, the process of making mobile have required machines and machines use fossil fuels, during the process carbon dioxide is releasing to the atmosphere. Besides industrial, use of transport methods such as cars and trains. Another problem is excavating. During the process of mining, the methane is trapped below the earth. Besides, rearing cattle will also cause methane because animals released the form of manure. However, animals is important because it make the latter equally responsible for the occurrence of global warming In a meeting held by the intergovernmental panel on climate change, a group of experts from different countries which are members of the United Nations established that more that 95% activities humans carry out warm the earth. The industrial activities that different nations depend on warm the atmosphere as they produce harmful gasses which are released into the air without being treated (Papagiannaki Lagouvardos and Kotroni 2013). This panel also stated that solar variance plays a significant role in causing climatic changes. The group, however, says that currently, global warming does not only depend on solar variability as in the past by showing the following evidence: In 1750, energy from the sun either remained constant or increased very slightly. Scientists proved that if the sun was the cause of global warming, then all layers of the atmosphere should portray effects. However, the upper atmosphere remains cold as the lower environments get warm because greenhouse gasses get caught by, the lower atmosphere. Changes in climate due to solar radiation cannot produce the effects witnessed in the past years without including the greenhouse gasses. The above image shows a consensus by different scientific bodies on climate change and global warming. Many scientists agree that human activities are currently the leading cause of change in climate which leads to global warming and other disasters. The expert's findings also indicate that recent climatic changes impacted humans and natural resources vigorously and that currently, emission of greenhouse gasses are very high. A joint statement by the different research institutes states that; ”Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However, there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities.1” Disaster analysis helps a lot in averting and controlling accidents as it provides the involved parties with the required information and procedures on how to act monitor and avoid disasters. Due to many casualties in past catastrophes, different countries put significant attention on the development of methods to measure the vulnerability, risk, and resilience of a given community to disasters (Lynham Noyand Page 2017). Study of social and economic aspects of risks helped explain the methods devised and their implementation when needed. Different approaches in disaster management and critical approaches in understanding this occurrence help get people ready in case they happen. Some limitations also arise from this methods especially in the differentiation between the theory part and the implementation part. In analyzing disaster management practices. There is need to include the locals, the religious societies, research institutes and also the national all stages of the disaster management cycle (Mojtahedi and Oo 2017). Additionally, the aspect of community-based disaster risk reduction and also the adaptations to climatic changes should be included in this management policies. There is still more need of analysis so as to come up with the best approach to disaster mitigation as the currently available methods don’t apply well in such times (Smith 2013). Unforeseen disasters cripple the community by damaging property, ending lives and other effects which take a lot of time to forget them. Disasters like floods and droughts are also very harmful as they occur for an unspecified period and lack of management policies lead to extreme losses. Awareness on disasters includes four components. They include prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. Another method of preparing for disasters is disaster modeling. It involves the collection of data, which encompasses the vulnerabilities, and the creation of models that help in estimation and determination of risk prone to occurring. Models created differ in their solutions, variability and also risk computation power and are highly technical. Thus a model is a representation of what may happen in real, and it’s based on an assumption on the past disaster occurrences and predictions of the future calamities. As a result, awareness is paramount in the use of this model as what they show may differ from real circumstances predicted, as failures are highly unpredictable. There are a few models available for risk determination and preparedness.an example is the comprehensive approach to probabilistic risk assessment. Models are subdivided into two categories. The first type is the black box methods which deal with the analysis in the long run, and simulation methods used for short term disaster analysis (Saito, 2015). Both categories are useful and valuable in nature in calling for attention to failure analysis and management. This model provides information acquired through the use of geographic information systems so as to perform failure analysis. Some American states did its development with support from the World Bank, the international development bank and other facilities. This model uses a modular platform for assessment of natural disasters. It conducts calculation on the vulnerabilities, and exposure to hazards and utilizes hazard mapping and risk evaluation and cost based tools to determine the risk. Other models provide information about potential losses before they take place so as the community and government prepare for the impact of the disaster. Another model available is the earthquake which uses the shaking of the ground in a given magnitude and at a particular location to determine its impact on structures and buildings.it also necessitates the determination of losses that may occur and also the probability of the disaster occurring. As a conclusion, it is clear that this model help in providing an estimate of the system broad impact and also recovery plans and at last countermeasure available during the pre-event period. The studies of input-output analysis help in disaster analysis through the determination of the economic value of failure models and emergency management provisions (Okuyama and Santos 2014). Despite all this, there are a few challenges aimed at disaster patterns about their efficiency. This limitation prevents their adoption as some scientists deem them as of little quality and the probability differs between real situations and model situations. Nevertheless, different frameworks have been proposed to counter this limitation with the inclusion of more realistic simulations based on all factors related to disaster occurrence and management. Advancement in technology helps in collection of large data samples and also in the prediction of failures thus enabling quick response when such calamities strike. Researches carried out show that in the year 2001, the economic cost of natural and human-related disasters amounted to approximately 370 billion dollars and there is still gradual increase in that number as for the current years. So as to enable the avoidance of such costs, science and technology application plays a vital role in management (Beemer and Van der Klaauw 2017). Application of information and communication technologies, geographic information systems and the use of remote setting and satellites to collect data help extensively in this field. Timely availability of information and early warnings of potential disasters enable an efficient and effective response to such calamities (Middleton and Modafferi 2014). Countries are putting more emphasis on their disaster preparedness and control capabilities, and use of radio broadcasts, phone messages, and sirens in areas prone to disasters help a lot. Measures put in place by different countries include the availability of advanced seismic surveillance tools which predict earthquakes and how strong they are, provision of early flooding and tsunami warnings and monitoring ocean movements, the inclusion of emergency helplines in the case of disasters, and also sharing of information between countries which are in agreement. The use of remote sensing techniques and also coordination between countries show the enhanced relationships created to manage disasters. About global warming, most warnings are ignored as people are used to weather changes that occur occasionally. The significant threats posed by global warming to people are more economical and ideological in nature rather than the fear of loss of lives and adverse effects on the world. People view climate change and global warming as a hysteria that is avoidable. More information and awareness means the formation of better disaster prevention methods (Husby Trond and Elco 2017). Accident analysis is, therefore, crucial to any country so as to create the necessary awareness and avoid controllable losses after each calamity occurrence. References Okuyama, Y. and Santos, J.R., 2014. Disaster impact and input–output analysis. Economic Systems Research, 26(1), pp.1-12. Husby, Trond G., and Elco E. Kok. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioral responses to risk." Natural Hazards (2017): 1-19. Smith, K., 2013. Environmental hazards: assessing risk and reducing disaster. Routledge. Wu, T., Li, H.C., Wei, S.P., Chen, W.B., Chen, Y.M., Su, Y.F., Liu, J.J. and Shih, H.J., 2016. A comprehensive disaster impact assessment of extreme rainfall events under climate change: a case study in Zheng-wen river basin, Taiwan. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(7), pp.1-17. Papagiannaki, K., Lagouvardos, K. and Kotroni, V., 2013. A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001-2011. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13(3), p.727. Mojtahedi, M. and Oo, B.L., 2017. The impact of stakeholder attributes on the performance of disaster recovery projects: The case of transport infrastructure. International Journal of Project Management. Lynham, J., Noy, I. and Page, J., 2017. The 1960 Tsunami in Hawaii: Long-Term Consequences of a Coastal Disaster. World Development. Bleemer, Z. and Van der Klaauw, W., 2017. Disaster (over-) insurance: the long-term financial and socioeconomic consequences of Hurricane Katrina. Middleton, S.E., Middleton, L. and Modafferi, S., 2014. Real-time crisis mapping of natural disasters using social media. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 29(2), pp.9-17. Saito, H., 2015. Analysis of geometric disaster evaluation model for physical networks. IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking, 23(6), pp.1777-1789. Bondyrev, I.V., Davitashvili, Z.V. and Singh, V.P., 2015. Global Warming and Climate Change. In The Geography of Georgia (pp. 205-218). Springer International Publishing. Revesz, R.L., Howard, P.H., Arrow, K., Goulder, L.H., Kopp, R.E., Livermore, M.A., Oppenheimer, M. and Sterner, T., 2014. Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change. Nature, 508(7495), pp.173-175. Read More