The Understanding of Probability - Assignment Example

The Understanding of Probability Perhaps one of the most interesting subjects in mathematics is undeniably related to the study of probability. It cannot be denied that understanding probability concept is one of the most interesting subjects that fascinated mathematicians in all walks of life and in every area of application. Of course, there are many underlying applications that can be depicted through the use of probability concept. For instance, modeling probabilities can be one of the most interesting tasks that a mathematician can contribute to the body of knowledge in the field of mathematics and other related area of applications. Understanding uncertainty is part of human’s quest to gain much more confidence particularly in a logical decision making process. Uncertainty which means knowing just a little of what might probably happen triggers much wider and deeper understanding of the value of numbers among those concerned individuals who are trying to make certain decisions. For instance, computation of probabilities based on the actual random samples from an entire class or population can be viewed much of a representation. This can be meaningful knowing the fact that drawing a sample from a certain population in which every entity has equal chance of being drawn can be viewed reliable in explaining the entire sample. In this paper, I gave light on the value of probability which will fall to what Stein said, “I wonder what would be revealed if a scientific study were done on the numbers” (American Institute of Physics 1). In the same way, his realizations based on what he said, “Now I feel comforted by the power of mathematics” (Chang 2) had been emphasized based on the following articles: 1. A 7-Game World Series Is Unusually Common (Chang 1 – 3) 2. Are 7-Game World Series more common than expected (American Institute of Physics 1 – 4) 3. Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors (Kierulff and Robison 773 – 781) 4. Some Unintended Consequences of Intention to Quit (Bowen 205 – 211) Let us start by summarizing the Baseball articles (Chang 1 – 3, American Institute of Physics 1 – 4). Baseball game is one of the most played games in the world. However, it is not just purely a game by design, but a rich area which paves way to exploring more mathematical concepts and methods. Mathematical concepts and methods may vary depending on the level of information and data type. The two articles include the discussion of chance in which the baseball game will end up to the seventh series. Considering the assumption that the two teams have equal chances of winning, getting the value of probability of winning in the seventh game may sound not so complex. However, there are many factors to be considered to exactly model the probability of winning the baseball game in the seventh series. Considering that the two teams may not exactly be having equal chances of winning due to the fact that the other team may just be exactly better than the other team or vice versa may sound a bit of consideration. This is just to name some considerations in computing the probability value of winning the seventh series baseball game. This computation however, cannot be compared to tossing of coins which is entirely different from the actual baseball game. Thus, a much wider and deeper understanding of probability concept and other significant statistical concepts shall be included in this case. These concepts may include investigation on how normally distributed are the data that are under consideration. We might also explore both inferential and descriptive statistics just to find out the best method in coming up a much more significant and meaningful value and information. The next articles include “Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors” (Kierulff and Robison 773 – 781) and “Some Unintended Consequences of Intention to Quit” (Bowen 205 – 211). In the case of “Probabilistic Forecasting of Contractors” (Kierulff and Robison 773 – 781), the concept of probability may sound much more into forecasting and as the basis of logical decision making process. It is about complete probability distribution around the company sales forecast. This article shows how probability is assigned based on the set assumption. It is important to consider the assumption in this case since this is about probabilistic modeling in which future decisions are highly dependent. It can be noted that the concept of probability in this case is used in business particularly in predicting future company sales. On the other hand, there can be many things to learn in the article entitled “Some Unintended Consequences of Intention to Quit” (Bowen 205 – 211). This article showed specific application of probability modeling in employee turnover process. This article talks about predicting employee turnover by studying the relationship between quitting and intention to quit. The result is highly dependent on the kind of relationship obtained between quitting and the intention to quit. So far, these two articles are specific applications of probability theory applied in business. They showed specific place of importance for the concept of probability as tool in obtaining significant information and valuable decision. These two articles are proof that mathematics can be applied to all fields of expertise. The use of probability concept in obtaining information and gauging the level of decision making process can be so powerful that future decisions can actually rely on it. So far, all articles stated and being discussed in this paper talk about the concept of probability. What is common to them is the use of probability concept that unravels the level of uncertainty of a certain event. Probability theory was used into actual applications that make it more fascinating and interesting subject to be considered. Another thing common to the articles is the application of probability theory with corresponding related information in which prior to result, these information are the basis of main assumptions. For example, in the case of “Some Unintended Consequences of Intention to Quit”, the relationship between quitting and intention to quit was studied to actually gauge the probability of employee turnover. Another common idea existed on the articles is the use of probabilistic modeling to forecast and hasten the level of complexity in understanding events, situations and data sets. The probabilistic modeling can be a significant tool that can be used to simplify complex situations that at some point may hinder sound decision making process. Good thing there is a probabilistic modeling that will aid someone in obtaining logical decisions and sound judgment of an events, situations and data sets at some point. What differentiates each article from the other is the actual field or application in which probability theory was administered. The first two articles talk about probability and its concept in baseball game. The third article talks about probability theory and its concept in business with respect to predicting future sales. The last article at some point may not be far from the third article in terms of its application of probability in the field of business. However, what differentiates it from the third article is its level of understanding in the other subjects of major concern just prior to obtaining concrete information and eventually an output model. It can also be noted that the style of application of probability theory may vary according to its field of application as observed in the four articles. This further suggests that probability theory is a very flexible tool and concept that can always find a unique design in every field of expertise which requires unique solution at certain level. The moment Stein wondered the outcome if scientific study were to be done with numbers, he was quite sure that there were more things to know about numbers. Not only that, aside from doing research, he was quite sure that their must be specific tools needed to capture an underlying significant meaning of each number. Undeniably, the use of probability theory is a significant tool that can give meaning to a number. In the other articles being examined in this paper, the same concept of the usefulness of number and the method of giving meaning to it can still be applied just the same in the case of baseball game. Research will serve as a fuel in obtaining this goal. Learning more detailed information about probability theory can be so fascinating and challenging too. One has to put a best foot forward and have to understand other significant or important things. Working with probabilities in the kind of research to business and organizational scholars is a powerful means to uncover realistic information. Furthermore, it can be so challenging that more research are needed just to find out even more information. Therefore, working with probabilities is a way to expansion of one’s knowledge to the extent that the realization is of closer resemblance to Stein’s. As Stein puts it, “Now I feel comforted by the power of mathematics.” References American Institute of Physics. “ A 7-Game World Series more common than expected.” Inside Science: News Service 2003: 3. . Bowen, D. “Some Unintended Consequences of Intention to Quit.” The Academy of Management Review 7 (1982): 205-211. Chang, Kenneth. “A 7-Game World Series Is Usually Common.” The New York Times 8 Oct. 2003, 1-3. Kierulff, H. and D. Robison. “Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors.” Management Science 17 (1971): B773 – B781. Read More