Knowledge And Society - Assignment Example

Statistics Stock Market and Exchange Rate Data

• Broken Hill Propriety (BHP)

Date

Last

%change

High

low

vol*(M)

closing prices

Exchange rate

(AUD to 1 USD)

1-May-12

74.57

-2.2575

76.1

74.42

3.80M

75.5

0.96773

2-May-12

75.11

-1.1029

75.17

74.35

3.72M

75

0.96861

3-May-12

74.47

-2.0364

74.66

73.17

2.39M

73.43

0.9742

4-May-12

72.43

-1.6253

72.53

71.37

3.61M

71.73

0.98208

7-May-12

71.37

-1.2721

71.65

70.75

1.69M

71.37

0.98006

8-May-12

69.97

-2.064

70.22

68.8

3.49M

70.04

0.98902

9-May-12

68.5

-2.6447

69.86

68.06

3.17M

69.33

0.99578

10-May-12

70.35

-1.5191

70.84

69.78

3.18M

70.18

0.9942

11-May-12

68.53

-2.0444

69.88

68.48

4.05M

68.82

0.99806

14-May-12

67.68

-1.1301

68.01

67.25

3.79M

67.46

1.0042

16-May-12

65.39

-3.0425

66.38

64.42

3.73M

64.42

1.00895

17-May-12

64.37

-1.75

64.54

63.43

3.94M

63.55

1.0115

18-May-12

63.46

-2.0703

63.6

62.31

4.03M

62.49

1.01581

21-May-12

63.03

-2.6739

64.51

62.83

2.79M

64.17

1.0088

22-May-12

64.61

-0.7288

63.58

63.12

4.50M

63.58

1.02095

23-May-12

62.36

-3.3976

63.3

61.22

5.13M

63.14

1.0251

24-May-12

62.76

-1.8519

63.25

62.1

3.81M

62.8

1.0239

25-May-12

61.75

-0.9907

62.18

61.57

2.98M

61.81

1.2476

29-May-12

63.75

-1.5795

64.31

63.31

4.00M

64.02

1.01665

30-May-12

62.06

-1.0256

62.06

61.43

3.83M

61.56

1.0296

31-May-12

61.63

-2.5518

61.89

60.35

4.43M

61.53

1.0281

1-Jun-12

61.05

-1.8374

61.52

60.41

3.84M

61.05

1.03161

5-Jun-12

60.48

-1.5726

61.36

60.41

4.06M

61.23

1.02613

6-Jun-12

62.39

-1.8935

63.5

62.32

4.84M

63.23

1.00826

7-Jun-12

65.42

-2.2229

65.76

64.33

7.58M

64.42

1.01084

8-Jun-12

62.01

-2.4161

63.16

61.67

3.04M

63.01

1.00852

12-Jun-12

63.46

-1.8147

63.96

62.82

1.88M

63.96

1.00468

13-Jun-12

63.26

-1.9552

64.14

62.91

2.28M

63.18

1.0054

14-Jun-12

62.64

-2.2935

63.78

62.35

2.16M

63.55

0.99781

15-Jun-12

64.18

-1.8318

65.04

63.87

2.31M

65

0.99206

18-Jun-12

65.03

-2.3633

66.27

64.74

2.91M

65.92

0.98806

19-Jun-12

66.78

-1.5658

67.46

66.42

3.04M

66.98

0.98093

20-Jun-12

67.45

-2.1158

67.57

66.17

3.27M

66.7

0.98188

21-Jun-12

65.91

-4.5195

65.91

63.06

4.39M

63.14

0.99468

22-Jun-12

63.39

-1.5156

63.63

62.68

2.97M

63.31

0.99332

25-Jun-12

61.78

-1.6092

61.88

60.9

3.89M

61.28

0.99924

26-Jun-12

61.86

-1.7532

62.1

61.03

2.13M

61.65

0.99398

27-Jun-12

61.44

-1.8316

62.27

61.15

3.31M

62.1

0.99189

28-Jun-12

61.44

-1.7541

62.07

61

3.00M

61.99

0.9959

29-Jun-12

65.16

-1.3618

65.5

64.62

3.81M

65.3

0.97679

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bhp/historical

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

Date

Last

% change

High

Low

vol*

closing prices

Exchange rate(AUD to 1 USD)

1-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.96773

2-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.96861

3-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.9742

4-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.98208

7-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

2,714

0.11

0.98006

8-May-12

0.12

0

0.12

0.12

2,500

0.12

0.98902

9-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.99578

10-May-12

0.1

10

0.11

0.1

30,870

0.1

0.9942

11-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

2,000

0.1

0.99806

14-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.0042

16-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.00895

17-May-12

0.1

0

0.11

0.11

16,200

0.1

1.01115

18-May-12

1

0

0.1

0.1

54,000

1

1.01581

22-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

5,000

0.1

1.02095

23-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.0251

24-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.0239

25-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

6,000

0.11

1.02476

28-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.0149

29-May-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.01665

30-May-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

1.0296

31-May-12

0.12

0

0.12

0.12

23,500

0.12

1.0281

1-Jun-12

0.1

10

0.11

0.1

35,000

0.1

1.03161

5-Jun-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.02613

6-Jun-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

3,884

0.1

1.00826

7-Jun-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.01084

8-Jun-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

10,000

0.11

1.00852

12-Jun-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

1.00468

13-Jun-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

41,500

0.11

1.0054

14-Jun-12

0.1

0

0.1

0.1

0

0.1

0.99781

15-Jun-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.99206

18-Jun-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.98806

19-Jun-12

0.11

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

0.98093

20-Jun-12

0.15

15.38461538

0.15

0.13

99,000

0.15

0.98188

21-Jun-12

0.12

0

0.12

0.12

6,000

0.12

0.99468

22-Jun-12

0.12

0

0.12

0.12

0

0.12

0.99332

25-Jun-12

0.18

20

0.18

0.15

29,795

0.18

0.99924

26-Jun-12

0.14

0

0.14

0.14

0

0.14

0.99398

27-Jun-12

0.15

0

0.15

0.15

7,200

0.15

0.99189

28-Jun-12

0.15

20

0.18

0.15

13,000

0.15

0.9959

29-Jun-12

0.15

0

0.15

0.15

20,000

0.15

0.97679

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cba/historical

• Telstra (TLS)

Dates

Last

% change

High

Low

Vol*

Closing Prices

Exchange Rate(AUD to 1 USD)

2-May-12

5.08

0

5.08

5.08

454

5.08

0.96861

3-May-12

5.03

1.192842942

5.09

5.03

1000

5.09

0.9742

4-May-12

5.07

0.788954635

5.11

5.07

904

5.11

0.98208

7-May-12

4.96

0

4.96

4.96

0

4.96

0.98006

8-May-12

5.07

2.169625247

5.18

5.07

500

5.18

0.98902

9-May-12

5.14

0

5.14

5.14

0

5.14

0.99578

10-May-12

5.19

0.776699029

5.19

5.15

2000

5.15

0.9942

11-May-12

5.09

0

5.09

5.09

0

5.09

0.99806

14-May-12

5.09

0

5.09

5.09

0

5.09

1.0042

16-May-12

4.88

0.409836066

4.9

4.88

7663

4.89

1.00895

17-May-12

4.88

1.455301455

4.88

4.81

5,050

4.81

1.01115

18-May-12

4.78

0.208768267

4.8

4.79

227

4.8

1.01581

21-May-12

4.77

1.257861635

4.83

4.77

233

4.83

1.0088

22-May-12

4.86

0

4.86

4.86

0

4.86

1.02095

23-May-12

4.85

0

4.85

4.85

0

4.85

1.0251

24-May-12

4.89

0

4.89

4.89

0

4.89

1.0239

25-May-12

4.89

0

4.89

4.89

0

4.89

1.02476

28-May-12

4.97

0

4.97

4.97

0

4.97

1.0149

29-May-12

4.9

0.612244898

4.93

4.9

3,569

4.93

1.01665

30-May-12

4.87

0

4.87

4.87

1,000

4.87

1.0296

31-May-12

4.89

0

4.89

4.89

0

4.89

1.0281

1-Jun-12

4.9

1.871101871

4.9

4.81

5,033

4.81

1.03161

5-Jun-12

4.83

0.415800416

4.83

4.81

151

4.81

1.02613

6-Jun-12

4.75

3.789473684

4.93

4.75

2,500

4.87

1.00826

7-Jun-12

4.76

1.680672269

4.84

4.76

2,256

4.81

1.01084

8-Jun-12

4.76

1.050420168

4.81

4.76

150

4.81

1.00852

12-Jun-12

4.96

2.016129032

5.06

4.96

1,028

5.06

1.00468

13-Jun-12

5

0.401606426

5

4.98

4,196

4.99

1.0054

14-Jun-12

4.96

0.4048583

4.96

4.94

1,000

4.94

0.99781

15-Jun-12

4.94

0

4.94

4.94

0

4.94

0.99206

18-Jun-12

4.95

1.226993865

4.95

4.89

5,656

4.9

0.98806

19-Jun-12

4.86

1.234567901

4.92

4.86

327

4.92

0.98093

20-Jun-12

4.92

0

4.92

4.92

0

4.92

0.98188

21-Jun-12

4.89

0.819672131

4.92

4.88

4,740

4.88

0.99468

22-Jun-12

4.84

0

4.84

4.84

0

4.84

0.99332

25-Jun-12

4.84

1.239669421

4.9

4.84

1,339

4.88

0.99924

26-Jun-12

4.81

0.208333333

4.81

4.8

500

4.8

0.99398

27-Jun-12

4.85

0.824742268

4.89

4.85

3,180

4.89

0.99189

28-Jun-12

4.93

1.649484536

4.93

4.85

3,617

4.85

0.9959

29-Jun-12

4.97

0

4.97

4.97

2,705

4.97

0.97679

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tls/historical

Descriptive StatisticsDetermine the mean, median, range, and sample standard deviation of each of your 7 sets of data.

Last

%Change

High

Low

Volume

Closing

Price

Exchange Rate (AUD to 1 USD)

Mean

BHP

65.2214

-1.9833

65.7616

64.4858

3.50186

65.1581395

1.007503721

CBA

0.13

1.75313059

0.11

0.11

9758

0.133488372

1.002455116

TLS

4.9230233

0.66766688

4.94

4.91

1443

4.930930233

1.003410233

Median

BHP

63.8

64.31

63.06

3.61

63.58

1.0042

CBA

0.10

0

0.11

0.11

0

0.11

1.0042

TLS

4.89

4.92

4.89

390.5

4.89

1.00468

Range

BHP

14.63

3.79071

15.1

14.55

5.89

14.63

0.27987

CBA

0.08

20

0.08

0.05

99000

0.08

0.06388

TLS

0.44

3.789473684

0.41

0.4

7663

0.4

0.063

Standard Deviation

BHP

3.788514471

0.723843905

3.795088932

3.751375561

0.045716517

3.720305068

0.999167148

CBA

0.316174443

4.968570374

0.99979649

0.999884876

18764.14193

0.99983138

0.999849639

TLS

0.994151502

0.580363171

0.104803244

0.994192438

1925.668339

0.994101206

0.999863613

Determine Pearson’s r correlation co-efficient between each company’s share price and volume traded.

• BHP

(Billinsley, B. 1995)

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(9789.26M) – (2801.8) (150.58M)

[43 X 183198.224 – 7850083.24] X [43X570.4M – 22674.3364]

r= 420938.18M – 421895.044M

[27440.392] X [1282.4636M]

r = -956.864/35191303.91

r = -2.719035369

• CBA

(Billinsley, B. 1995)

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(46157.4) – (4.84) (4E5)

[43 X 23.43 – 22.37] X [43X 43.22 – 1858.07]

r= 1984768.2 – 1936000

985.12 X 6.496

r = 48768.2/79.99

r = 609.68

• TLS

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(303651) – (212.03) (62046)

[43 X 1046.01 – 44956.72] X [43 X 248980630 – 3849706116]

r= 13056993 – 13155613.38

385815.72

r = -98620/385815.72

r = -0.2558

Determine Pearson’s r correlation co-efficient between each company’s share price and the exchange rate.

• BHP

(Billinsley, B. 1995)

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(2819.92) – (2801.8) (43.32)

[43 X 183198.224 – 7850083.24] X [43 X 43.72 – 1876.85]

r= 121256.56 – 121373.976

[27440.392] X [-16.89]

r = -117.42/-463468.22

r = 2.53E-4

• CBA

(Billinsley, B. 1995)

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(4.74) – (4.84) (43.11)

[43 X 0.52 – 23.43] X [43 X 43.22 – 1858.07]

r= 203.82 – 208.65

0.65

r = -4.83/0.65

r = -7.43

• TLS

(Billinsley, B. 1995)

From xls datasheet:

r = 43(212.71) – (212.03) (43.12)

[43 X 1046.01 – 44956.72] X [43 X 43.30 – 1861.63]

r= 9146.53 – 9142.73

2.42

r = 3.8/2.42

r = 1.57

Data AnalysisAnswer the following questions.1. For each company, is there strong, weak, or no correlation between the company’s share price and volume traded? Justify your answer.

BHP

The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and 1. For this case, the result is

-2.72, meaning that the variables have no correlation.

CBA

The correlation coefficient of CBA is beyond the required range of -1 to 1

Therefore no correlation

TLS

-0.26 is the correlation coefficient of TLS which is below the required range hence no correlation.

2. For each company, is there strong, weak, or no correlation between the company’s share price and the exchange rate? Justify your answer.

BHP

The correlation coefficient of BHP 2.53 is beyond the required range of -1 to 1

Therefore no correlation between company’s share price and exchange rate.

CBA

The correlation coefficient of CBA -7.43 is below the required range of -1 to 1

Therefore no correlation (Billinsley, B. 1995).

TLS

The correlation coefficient of TLS (1.57) is above the required range of -1 to 1

Therefore no correlation.

Which company is most affected by the exchange rate? Why?

TLS since its correlation coefficient is extremely outside the required range (Billinsley, B. 1995).

2 Probability (7 marks)

1. What is the probability that your opponent has a better hand than you? Show your reasoning and working.

According to Billingsley, B. (1995) in his book Probability and measure, Calculating the chance that other player has a better is the probability of the 1st card dealt to the rival is higher position than the hand pair and the 2nd card is same position as the first. If r is position of the hand a pair. (14-r) 4 cards are of the higher position. 52-2= 50 cards in the deck. Subsequent to the 1st card is dealt to the player 49 cards remains, from which 3 are the same position as the first. Therefore the probability of a single rival dealing with a higher pocket pair is