the cyclical nature of US commercial and industrial construction market that affect the revenues generated, the company has experienced sales growth that exceeds the industry. Their positive growth is due to their favorable pricing strategies, product innovations and targeted marketing programs.
The current demand forecasting process of the company includes a forecast master and a planning bill. The forecast master is a spreadsheet that lists the average weekly sales history for each product family by quarter and year since 1999. For each product family, the total quarter’s actual sales are divided by 13 weeks per quarter to determine the average weekly sales per quarter. The expected demand for the next five or six quarters is then estimated for the quarters.
Each product family had its own planning bill. It contains the sales history for each product within the family. It calculates the average number of units sold within that product family each day within each quarter. It also contains projection on the average daily sales for that family that will sell in the next 12 months. Furthermore, the planning bill disaggregates the family forecast into each product based on the per cent of sales of the product family. Lastly, the planning bill calculates the annual sales forecast for each product within the family.
The current forecasting performance utilized by the company is inaccurate. According to sales records, there are variances in the forecasted sales value with respect to the actual sales of the company. This paper will center on the utilization of statistical forecasting methods in order to improve the performance of the business.
The current method of forecasting that is utilized by the company does not take into account the seasonality of the sales generated. The forecast is based on the forecast master and the planning bill of each product family. The method of using two forecasting tools to estimate future demand is applicable to the