Situation in Iraq - Essay Example

Situation in Iraq Establishing new, democratic regime in Iraq is supposed one of the primary tasks of Bush administration. It was d that the essence of USA policy as regards to this question will be to "promote the emergence of a democratic government." The USA President repeatedly addresses the audience, pointing out importance of the role that the USA in general and US military forces in particular play in changing the situation in Iraq for better: "Freed from the weight of oppression, Iraq's people will be able to share in the progress and prosperity of our time. If military action is needed, the United States and our allies will help the Iraqi people rebuild their economy, and create the institutions of liberty in a unified Iraq at peace with its neighbors." (Post War Iraq: Economic and Political Reconstruction) Those who carefully study the process of reconstruction on the postwar Iraq often speak about the challenges, costs and unresolved problems that make the essence of the process. Besides, numerous examples of the reconstruction policy represented by the USA in Afghanistan and Bosnia make evident that these policies do not promise fast and easily reached successful result. Those who review the process that now takes place in Iraq, insist that this country has much in common with Afghanistan. The country is characterized by ideological and ethnic contradictions. The main purpose that had to be achieved before starting the process of democratization was settling down the conflict between Shiites, Kurds, and Sunni Muslims. Political situation in the country is such that a system to keep political and security balance is to be organized to support a new democratic government, as the situation is not likely to change for better at the nearest future. As the commentators state, "In short, the United States would have to become engaged in nation building on a scale that would dwarf any other such effort since the reconstruction of Germany and Japan after World War II. And it would have to stay engaged not just years, but decades, given the depth of change required to make Iraq into a democracy". (Post War Iraq: Economic and Political Reconstruction) It is necessary to take into consideration that the countries of Middle East are much different from the countries of the West not only due to the differences in culture and consciousness, but also due to their location and geography, which also affects the society life and the functioning of all the spheres of the country life in general. So facts about geographical position, which comprises regional observation, can help understand this country better. The most basic facts that it is necessary to know about Iraq's position are as follows: it borders with six various countries, it also has limited outlet to the sea, and the total area of the country is not very large, it can be compared to the territory that is occupied by California state. The country is divided into four geographical regions - highlands, plain, desert and uplands. The deserts occupy about a half of the whole area of the country. The major rivers that provide for existence of the population and agriculture are the Tigris and Euphrates. The climate in the country is rather severe, especially in desert areas - extremely hot in summer and cold in winter, the atmospheric precipitates are limited, but spring floods often cause damages. It is evident that natural conditions are not favorable for easy and patient life of the people that live in the country; their life is a constant struggle with natural forces, especially as the natural conditions almost do not provide people with the possibility to grow food. (Malinowski) There are also some more details that also worth consideration. Due to rich natural resources of oil Iraq is supposed to be one of the wealthiest countries of the world, but due to the sanctions imposed by the UNO and the government negligence the population of the country is the poorest compared to the other countries of the Middle East. All those who study the current situation at the country agree that the crash of Hussein's regime called for many problems in reconstructing the economy in the country. Of course, oil sources in Iraq still remain the source of potential wealth of the country, but the economy became disintegrated during the war, especially since it appeared to be detached from the international market for a definite period of time. That's why economical problems that cannot be resolved at once are supposed to cause problems in establishing new regime in the country as it is designed by the US government. (Malinowski) The current economical situation in Iraq is differently judged from the points of view of various commentators and reporters. Some of them speak about persistent progress and positive tendencies, other cite facts and numbers to prove decrease in economy and living standard. It is evident that there are the events that are the evidences of the fact that the situation in the country changes to better. The government of the country tries to prevent growing inflation, reconsidering laws that influence economy and accepting budgetary regulations to stop deficit and control inflation. The usage of information technologies, internet and phone connection are spreading, and the gross domestic product increased in two recent years in comparison to the last period of Hussein's regime. School and college enrollment also grows. As the Iraq authorities state, the military forces that are to provide for security get more and more trained. (Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq) Unfortunately, those who speak about regressing processes in Iraqi political and economical condition also have the facts that prove their opinion. The problems with electricity occur every now and then, and production of electricity didn't rise since the pre-war period. The witnesses say that the electric power even in the capital of the country is often off. The problem of unemployment remains one of the most relevant problems in Iraq today. The infant death-rate still remain the highest compared even to other countries of the Middle East. Criminality increases, and it is not connected to the conditions of war, but also to the situation in the society itself. (Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq) Current statistics of demographical situation show that the health care is of a law quality in the country at present. Infectious illnesses spread very fast and the system of health care cannot provide necessary measure to stop or prevent them. The specialists often speak about low quality or even insecurity of the food and water that is used by the population. Poor nourishment also causes health problems, especially for kids and teenagers, and the situation is aggravated by changing conditions of the climate. (Donovan) Criminal offence is one more unresolved problem that affects the situation in the country. Speaking about all above-mentioned, it can't be mentioned that both the pessimist and optimists share one opinion - the situation should be changed at first with the help of necessary changes in political process. Recent elections in the country seemed to shift the balance to positive, but there are still a lot of things to be done. (Donovan) Those who speak about the problems of the reconstruction period in Iraq often accuse USA President administration for their policies that, as the author state, prevent from recovery of the country, rather then provide conditions for it: "Regarding the post-war situation in Iraq, it appears to be an unfortunate and deteriorating situation. Despite the ongoing resistance in the form of guerilla warfare and almost daily deaths of U.S. soldiers, this administration is moving forward with their Geostrategic goals. On May 9th, 2003 the Bush administration presented U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483, proposing to drop all sanctions against Iraq, and allow the U.S./U.K. to completely control Iraq's oil production revenue. Due to US pressure, this UN resolution was passed on May 22, 2003. However, according to the original UN resolutions from 1990, the sanctions could not to be lifted until the U.N. certifies Iraq as being free of WMD. Interestingly, the Bush administration blocked Dr. Blix and all of the U.N. inspectors from returning to Iraq in the "post-war" period, and successfully had the UN sanctions lifted regardless of Iraq's WMD status." (Post War Iraq: Economic and Political Reconstruction) Political and economic scientists that observe the current situation in the country and the effects of USA policies in it often state that the situation is no as clear as it is represented by the official viewpoint. As Clark states in his article, renationalizing of the oil in Iraq won't be appreciated by the USA President administration. He speaks about the results of the war, when the control over the oil resources of the country was placed under the USA and UK control, despite there were numerous reports from the population of Iraq that the people are against such measure. They wanted that the UNO itself control the oil resources of the country, but these reports were neglected. It is a significant fact, because the UNO which is not appreciated by the Iraqi population due to its sanctions is more respectable among the people than the representatives of the USA and UK. (Clark) Besides this author states that the economic situation of the country depends upon the current needs of the USA, and the shift are carried out basing upon these needs, rather then on the patterns that could improve the situation of the country in general: "Further, it would be economically advantageous to denominate oil sales in the currency that would provide Iraq with the most purchasing power and trade potential in which to rebuild the country -- which given current valuations now and into the foreseeable future implies the euro. Self-determination and democratic rule does not always fit U.S. "hegemonic interests." (Clark) The author also states that anti-American tendencies are based on the hypocritical character of the USA foreign policy, which is represented as the set of measure providing for successful implementation of democratic regime, but appearing to be a support of oppressive influence on the country from the outside. He gives the following examples: "include Iran 1953-1979, Iraq 1963-1990, Saudi Arabia 1944-present, and our overtly biased policies regarding the Israel-Palestinian conflict." (Clark) Almost all the reporters state that the most part of the Iraqi population is satisfied with the crash of Hussein's regime, but they are not content with the constant presence of the foreign military troops in their native country. The legitimacy of political processes of the country should be supported by peacemaking forces, but these forces should be represented by many countries to keep balance, while the majority of troops in Iraq now belong to US military forces. (Iraq Reconstruction - Introduction) As far the successful strategies that should improve the current situation in Iraq and the necessary changes that should be provided for are concerned, almost all observers and scientists agree on the following. Under the circumstances that exist at present, successful process of reconstruction in Iraq in many respects depends upon the policies of the USA. The conditions of the political situation of Hussein's regime made the opposition almost disappear inside the country, so the consequences of political situation are difficult to overcome. At present such necessary element of democratic political regime as the opposition is just starts to develop in Iraq. That's why Washington and the US authorities should help the opposition in Iraq create a vision of post Hussein's country as it should be. The essence of the policy that is carried out in Iraq by the USA should lie at first in the interests of Iraqi people and satisfying their primary needs, rather then trying to achieve the goals that would be profitable for the USA. This should not only provide for successful development of democracy in Iraq, but also help in establishing connection with the countries that are the neighbors of Iraq. This aspect is also of a great importance, as the absence of the links between Iraq and neighbor countries will lead to worsening of the current situation in the country. But this also should be done carefully, as the situation may be influenced with other factors: "Iraq's neighbors will be tempted to interfere on behalf of those groups and factions they identify with in an effort to protect their interests and check the ambitions of rival powers. A weak sense of nationhood will exacerbate the situation, and the temptation for various factions to seek sponsorship, if only to act as a "spoiler," would be great. Under such circumstances, the United States could be drawn into proxy conflicts that could threaten efforts at reconstruction". (Iraq Reconstruction - Introduction) Despite of the situation, the policy of the USA in Iraq should be directed to the process of peacemaking and the missions that would support stability in all spheres of political and society life. In addition, the military forces should carry out the activity that is similar to the activity of the police, to prevent from the increase of the criminal offence level. There are the authors that insist that 75000 people would be enough to keep up the balance and stability in the country, without causing inconvenience to the population of the country. This number could seem unreasonable at first sight, but there are people who prove that the workload of the USA troops may be divided as to make this number enough for the commitment. The police forces are necessary to provide security of oil fields, watch the borders of the country and control the order in the cities. (Iraq Reconstruction - Introduction) In fact, military occupation of the country is harmful both for the USA and Iraq. It stirs up religious passions of Muslim communities and leads to growing discontent of the Arabs all over the world, which affects the political instability in many countries that are not directly involved into the conflict. If the part of the US forces is replaced by military forces of neighbor Arab or Muslim countries, it would improve the situation and will be less insulting for the Muslims communities. (Donovan) The necessary changes involve training new security forces of Iraq. These forces should be trained to keep the balance in the country without support of any military forces from outside the country. The process of training such forces should be carried out very carefully, as the existing troops of the state are based on the foundations that served to the regime of Hussein and may obey to the rest of the elite of this regime. Of course, excluding all these people is not possible, but they should be selected carefully. The person that would be the head of military forces should be also selected after careful consideration, as this person would have the possibility to access the sources of power in the country. The majority of the persons that are involved into the process worked under the conditions of Hussein's regime and may share nationalistic ideas. The neighbor countries would favor the domination of Sunni in the military forces. The specialists suggest that a scheme allowing civil control with the supervision of the US should be provided for the successful functioning of the system in general. (Donovan) At first the international administration in the country would be the most effective: "Military rule, even in the interim, would only reinforce what will already be a prevalent perception among Arabs and Muslims that regime change is meant only to inaugurate a new age of American imperialism in the Middle East." (Clark). The presence of international administration would delete these ideas and would help in promoting the processes of democratization and reconstruction. The UNO and other international organizations should observe and control the process of reconstruction in the country. They also should coordinate financial and labor force commitment carried out by the USA in future. As far as the administrative resources in Iraq are concerned, the system has been fully destroyed during the war. It has been destroyed in all directions - both vertically and horizontally. All the levels and structures that represented all branches of state power - government, police, army, State security services, minister offices, secret services and all the spheres providing for existence of the society and people's living disappeared. One may say that everything disappeared. (Kamp) The matter is that Iraqi people is not satisfied with the role of advisors. They wish to participate in the process of decision-making, and they want provide for necessary changes in their state by themselves. They insist that the power should be passed to the citizens of the state, nor virtually, but really. In that sense Iraq is different from Afghanistan. There are a lot of professionals of all spheres of the industry. A technocratic part of the society may be loyal towards new authorities, but to a certain extent. This part of the society is designed as to function as the integrated mechanism, being a non-ideologized and nonpolitical structure, that's why it could be used in the reconstruction process. It is used by the USA authorities to some extent, especially in the following spheres: health care, power industry etc. but the governmental structures should be formed on a state level. Much should be done in Iraq as regards to this problem. (Kamp) Iraq is not simply a historical collective memory, that counts more than a 6000 year experience, but it was also a state representing rather high level of population education and developed technological sector of economy compared to the other countries of this region. It is necessary to take into account that there are the elements of democratic regime that could be implemented in any state. Tunisia and Italy both have parliament. Opposition and right to vote are represented in many countries. All these features of democracy exist and they were brought from outside into these countries. But the suffrage in the Muslim world is something special, which is different from the process in other countries. From this viewpoint the democratic technologies could be imported from the outside. But the problem is that such technology must be productively used on a basis of existing political culture and heritage. The most difficult thing is to combine the roots of the political culture that should accept the democratic institutions and those democratic institutions themselves. It is also necessary to define the possibility of existence of the political opposition in such society. (Kamp) Calculation of the potential gain from the oil sales in case it would cost $25 per barrel shows that Iraq could gain $22 billion per year. This number is reasonable and possible. Many international companies functioning in Iraq are interested in perspectives in development. Before the Hussein's regime and the war the most part of the population in Iraq belonged to the middle class of the society, but now this class almost disappeared. It should be brought to living again and providing for democracy is one of the essential conditions for middle class revival. The economical changes are the basis for providing necessary conditions to establish democracy in Iraq. (Clark) When starting the process of post-war reconstruction in Iraq, the USA authorities had strict plans of how to restore highways, bridges and other elements of infrastructure, but the plans of reconstructing bank system and other economy sectors were unclear. Agricultural sector is considered to be one of the most viable sectors of Iraq economy. But prolonged domination of command economy prevented the farmers from the possibilities to settle down their own problems. Plantations of tomatoes, dates were deprived of fertilizers and harvester, and this caused a great damage to them. (Kamp) The main problem as it is seen by the commentators, lies in the absence of clear and fine plan of the political settlement, which could be clear to the population of Iraq and would be supported by the people, that could provide for the consolidation of regions and that would be legitimate according to the international standards. (Kamp) The major questions that are now asked as regarded to Iraq are as follows: did the war in Iraq provide for the guarantee for the absence of WMH and if the purpose of humiliating terrorism was achieved. The experts state that these questions were not solved. A real opportunity of placing international control over all the military programs and projects existed before the beginning of the war. It could be possible to settle down a system of prolonged disarmament monitoring and watch the process. Now the situation in the country is unstable, and nobody can be sure that definite components and materials related to the programs of WMH, research projects, scientists and developers of the military projects didn't fall into the hands of international terrorists, and the consequences of such events are easily predicted. Thus, the declared purpose of military operations wasn't achieved. (Clark) Moreover, there are evidences of the fact that after the end of the war Iraq became one of the bridgeheads of international terrorism. Partisan and diversionary activity against the troops that occupied the country and the attacking of the Iraqi people that support the coalition forces are controlled by the terrorist and extremist forces form outside the country. There is a constant threaten of destabilization of the situation in all the countries of the Middle East. It looks like that the anti-terrorist purpose of Iraq occupation wasn't achieved either. (Clark) There is a set of factors that made the situation get worse even compared to the period when the country was controlled by severe international sanctions. Iraq was never considered to be a poor country, due to its oil resources, developed industry, which now is in need of modernization, fine infrastructure, developed agriculture and rich resources of qualified work forces and administrational resources. The programs suggesting billions of dollars to reconstruct Iraq that are announced by the USA and some other countries would be enough to restore the country fully and completely, but these programs need to be carried out carefully. Situation in many respects depends on the formation of the political system of Iraq and the possibility to keep the country as a viable state. (Iraq Reconstruction - Introduction) In December, 2004 the President of the USA, George Bush, appeared in mass media with a series of speeches. Some of the commentators judge his statements to be an attempt to stop constant decrease of support that the USA policies in Iraq face in society. But recently the statements of the President are often devoted to the economical development of Iraq. He said that the help of the USA doesn't bring the results that were expected, but this help isn't spent in vain and it is proved by numerous evidences. "Progress is running far behind Iraqi expectations in virtually every area," said Wayne White, head of the State Department's Iraq intelligence team from 2003 to 2005 and now an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute. "In their view, most Iraqis are not seeing 'amazing progress.' All too many of them live in constant danger, with less electricity in many areas than under Saddam Hussein."(qtd in Wright) The President also stated that the poor economic conditions in Iraq were caused by the regime of Hussein, and changing these conditions is a hard task that cannot be completed immediately. Works Cited Post War Iraq: Economic and Political Reconstruction. Capitol Hill Campus. Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Available at http://www.mercatus.org/index.php Kaysen, Carl., Miller, , Steven E., Malin Martin B., Nordhaus William D., Steinbruner, John D.. War with Iraq. Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives. American Academy of Arts and Sciences. 2002 Kamp, Nina. O'Hanlon, Michael E.. The State of Iraq: An Update. The New York Times, September 9, 2005 Donovan, Michael. The Challenges Of Political Reconstruction In Iraq. Center for Defense Information. 2003 Clark, William. Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth. 2003-2004. Available at http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.pdf Iraq Reconstruction - Introduction. Reconstruction. Southwest Asia. Available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_reconstruction.htm Malinowski, Jon. IRAQ: Geographic Perspectives. U S Military Academy. 2003 Wright, Robin. Sarhan, Saad. In Cities Bush Cited, Progress Is Relative. Washington Post. Thursday, December 8, 2005. Read More