Psychology, Science & Pseudoscience - Essay Example

 Topic: Psychology, science & pseudoscience Introduction: Heuristic methods of learning mean using reasoning and past experience instead of formulas or solutions that are given. What is theory? Theory is other man’s experience. The storehouse of books that you find in the library is the experiences of the writers and researchers that become the theory of the present readers. People tend to estimate the probability of happening of an event by trying to find a comparable known event with the assumption that the probabilities will be similar. To conclude results from what we experience, we need to do proper classification of things. If we find that the classification does not fit well into the category of our choice, we move to the next available category. By assuming thus, one strikes at the area of fallacy—to assume that similarity in one aspect leads to similarity of other aspects as well. “The gambler’s fallacy, the belief in runs of good and bad luck can be explained by the representative ness heuristic. People will also ‘force’ statistical arrangements to represent their beliefs about them, for example a set of random numbers will be carefully mixed up so no similar numbers are near one another.” (Representative ness…) When people make the assumption that a small sample is representative of a much larger population, the law of small number applies. For example, if someone with small eyes and short stature, one assumes that they are Chinese. The one with a good height and long nose and fair complexion you may assume that they are from Iran. While buying a lottery ticket, one thinks about the random sequence, or peculiar sequence of numbers than an arithmetical sequence of numbers. Heuristic does not mean that you rely on statistics only. Statistics may not be of any use at all in many assumptions. For example, if we come across some dynamic sales personnel from a company, we presume that the company is following an aggressive marketing policy. A few brilliant personnel in the sales department lead to the assumption about the work culture of the company as a whole. It can be partly true or may be totally fallacious. “Many of the probabilistic questions with which people are concerned belong to one of the following types: What is the probability that object A belongs to class B? What is the probability that event A originate from process B? What is the probability that process B will generate event A? In answering such questions, people typically rely on the representative ness heuristic, in which probabilities are evaluated by the degree to which A is representative of B, that is, by the degree to which A resembles B.” (Heuristic….) People have a tendency to get carried away and their judgement stands influenced by the representative samples. For example, in a family consisting of four children, if the first child scores outstanding marks in an examination, we immediately generalize that the family possesses sterling scholastic qualities, that the parents take lots of pain to teach the children, or they have arranged special tutors to guide the children etc. People mostly add superficial features to arrive at judgements. The essential difference between the causes and effects is overlooked. The assumptions will not stand the rigid test of questioning or reasoning. People think and predict results like the soothsayers or astrologers, and the convictions to arrive at the results seem unchallengeable. For every argument challenging the veracity of conclusions, they seem to have a counter argument. "The best explanation to date of the misperception of random sequences is offered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who attribute it to people’s tendency to be overly influenced by judgments of “representative ness.” Representative ness can be thought of as the reflexive tendency to assess the similarity of outcomes, instances, and categories on relatively salient and even superficial features, and then to use these assessments of similarity as a basis of judgment. People assume that “like goes with like”: Things that go together should look as though they go together.” (Representative ness….)With impractical considerations, with the assumptions that have no scientific basis, people take representative ness as a cause of the winner-loser effect. The following are some of the examples to arrive at the conclusions in the area of sports on the basis of representative heuristic. They are mostly used for winner-loser effect or related to outstanding achievements. The most often seen manifestation representative ness heuristic is the one that compels the people to expect patterns in truly random sequences. Heuristic approach in sports—a common but erroneous belief: In sports, whatever is the skill of the player, he owes his performance on a given day to representative heuristic—whether it is a positive performance or the negative performance! For the outcome, one succeeds in convincing oneself about the heuristic reasons. For example, if the player wearing shirt number 9 scored the winning goal of the championship, it is unlikely that the owner of the shirt, the fans supporting the team or even the coach will ever forget that number. During the next finals, you will be surprised to see the player wearing the shirt with number 9, and several thousands of fans also with the number 9 shirts, showing play card number 9. The dormant number 9 has suddenly become important! Representative heuristic almost borders superstition. Recollection of the past to take future decisions is the dominant trait of the human beings, and the most rationale and reasonable individual will find it difficult to resist this temptation to fall into the trap of heuristic approach. Some more examples of representative heuristic in sports are: Touch the ground with the hand as you enter the pitch. This practice is universal. The first act of the goal keeper is to touch the goal posts. Representative ness heuristic understood in the backdrop of Regression to the Mean: In a nutshell representative heuristic approach is to think without rhyme or reason and take decisions on the basis of imaginings. According to Wolff, “Another example of regression to the mean is the Sports Illustrated Jinx, which is a myth that suggests that because a team graces the cover of Sports Illustrated, they are cursed to perform worse in subsequent games. This, however, can also be explained by regression to the mean. When a team is put on the cover on Sports Illustrated, more often than not they are having an exceptional year.” (Wolff, 2002) Conclusion: Those who follow the models or methods of representative heuristic are at the threshold of gamblers. Such individuals peruse a short history or the not-too-well researched data, and arrive at conclusions which later prove fallacious. Guesswork can never be the part of a good model. Betting in sports and investment in shares etc. are some of the dangerous traps where the people get caught and lose money. Today’s sapling does not become a tree tomorrow and trees do not grow to the sky. A short previous history of running success does not indicate the ground realities, based on which one can take risky decisions. Imaginative assumptions are also wrong. For example, in cricket, assume that a good cricketer has consecutively failed three times—it is not correct to assume that on the fourth occasion he will hit a century, or if he has hit centuries two times in a row, the presumption that he will score century for the third time as well, is also a case of representative heuristic. ************* References: HeuristicIn answering such questions, people typically rely on the representative ness heuristic… – Retrieved on October 16, 2009 Representative ness HeuristicPeople tend to judge the probability of an event by finding a 'comparable known' event…. – Retrieved on October 16, 2009 Wolff, Alexander. “Unraveling the Jinx.” SportsIllustrated.com. 15 January 2002. 10 April 2008, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/alexander_ Retrieved on October 16, 2009 Read More