Statistics of Flood and Rainfalls in Queensland - Math Problem Example

Table of Contents 1.0 Part A - Problem Solving Strategy Problem solving is the beginning process of tackling complex problems. Professional engineers and technologists have similar guidelines in the identification and formulation of problem solving solutions (King, 2008). Their proficiency differs in the approach and systems utilisation in the tackling of these complex problems. Following the flooding that hit Brisbane River and its tributaries in 2011, a lot of concerns have been raised on the tack to be used to solve such a problem since the area is more used to deal with drought rather than floods (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). 1.1 Individual learning goals Problem solving techniques entails understanding issues, and implications by coming up with suitable decisions. In addition, the strategy provides a tool for analysing critical situations and availing informed decisions. In this task, the team is expected to determine rainfall patterns within a period of six months (King, 2008). Furthermore, the portfolio will provide team members with procedures on how to successfully apply the strategy in solving the task at hand. Below is a table of goals to be achieved by the members by the end of the exercise (King, 2008). Goals to be learned in this section How the goals will be incorporated Individual statistical analysis and planning Acquiring data from bureau of meteorology draw graphs and explaining the outcome of the plotted graphs. Employ career technical procedures and assessment Come up with possible solutions that will help to tackle the issue professionally Assessing the efficacy and effectiveness of the individual portfolio Using the proposed solution we apply them and see if they are effective. Development towards professionalism in problem solving techniques The most effective solutions are acknowledged as the best strategies in problem solving. Manage information and documentation Use the portfolio to come up with a crucial report and recommendations. Table 1: Individual learning goals 2.0 Part B – Statistical Component For a clean analysis, of the rainfall pattern data containing rainfall amount in Linville is extracted from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. The data extracted will be for a period of six months from August 2010 to January 2011 (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The data indicates that the area experienced extremely wet period as from late November 2010 to mid January 2010 when the flood stroke. In the month of January, there was a major rain event at Linville and the entire Queensland region (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 12). The total rainfall recorded in that month alone was way above average (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). This extreme wet period was the cause of many flash floods in different rivers in Queensland (Brisbane River included). The 2011 period Month Amount of rainfall August 2010 107.4 September 2010 121.3 October 2010 231.6 November 2010 16.4 December 2010 373.6 January 2011 436.3 Table 2: shows the amount of rainfall collected in 2011 period (source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The graph shows the gradual increase in rainfall amount over the six months period (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The bureau of meteorology data and forecasting provides a clear basis of possibilities of heavy rainfall as the trend continues (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011). This forecast should prepare the management of Wivenhoe Dam for an increase in the inflow of water into the dam (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 451). Since its construction, the dam has served the purpose of regulating the flow of Brisbane River (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). 2.1 Monthly rainfall analysis In an analysis, of the pattern of annual rainfall for the last twenty years the area has had fluctuating precipitation level (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). Table 3: shows annual precipitation in the area for the last two decades. (Source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The graph below indicates the trend of the fluctuating rainfall shooting as high as 1300 mm in the last year. The steep slop of the curve towards the end is a clear indication that the rains will be increasing even further. In a further description of the statistics collected, the maximum, minimum and mean of the rainfall collected within the six months is used to determine the standard deviation of the data (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 52). Below are the set of data from Bureau of Meteorology indicating the highest and lowest rainfall recorded in the six months period (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). Descriptive Statistics Minimum Maximum Mean for the period Std. Deviation Rainfall mm 16.4 436.3 214.4333333 137.050093 Table 4: descriptive statistics (source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The table indicates 16.4 mm to be the lowest recorded amount of rainfall. This was recorded in the month of November. The highest amount recorded is 436.3 mm recorded in the month of January. Over the years January has had highest amount of rainfall. The graph below shows the amount of rainfall recorded in the month of January alone, since 1967. Month of January Rainfall amount in mm 1967 193.7 1968 x 1969 29.5 1970 136.4 1971 89.1 1972 86 1973 141.3 1974 478.2 1975 100 1976 135.6 1977 56.5 1978 127.1 1979 171.8 1980 133.9 1981 22.6 1982 128.6 1983 50.4 1984 63 1985 98.6 1986 39 1987 91.1 1988 98.6 1989 109.7 1990 89.8 1991 96 1992 98 1993 x 1994 11 1995 x 1996 x 1997 x 1998 x 1999 x 2000 53.8 2001 x 2002 x 2003 x 2004 205.6 2005 138.6 2006 98.9 2007 74.8 2008 150.4 2009 x 2010 35.2 2011 436.3 Table 5: average January rainfall since 1967 (source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) Source: (source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The graph further indicates that, in most of the years, January records the amount of rainfall that is above the median mark. In the two periods that is 1974 and 2011 the high amount of rainfall resulted to flooding of river Brisbane (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 81). The rains in Linville which is an upstream town led to the increase in water flow down stream (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 101). 2.2 Synoptic summary of the weather that led to the flood events There was a built up pressure at Tasman Sea, which extended towards east Queensland (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). This pressure brought with it showers and thunderstorm. Heavy rains were also experienced overnight with the bureau recording up to 304.0 mm of rainfall. The wet season of 2010/2011 was different from the previous wet periods (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 376). Previously the wet season extends from October to April and the monsoon winds onset in late December. The 2011 period experienced a la Niña effect. La Niña effect has been associated with flooding in the eastern Australia case in the scenario the flood event of 1974 (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 26). This la Niña effect caused uncharacteristically persistent monsoonal rainfall in December 2010. As a result, it increased the strength of annual monsoon rains hence making December to be the wettest month in that region (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 32). This meant that all the catchment were already wet before the floods occurred. As the rains prolonged, the catchment could not absorbed any more rain waters thus resulting to overflow of the river and the dam as well (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 30). The magnitude of rainfall intensitry is plotted against the period (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 32). The graph provides comparison of rainfall parterns between the August and January experienced since 1967. Throughout the years the month of january has been the wettest month. the table below shows the durationof rainfall recorded by Bureau of Meteorology. Rainfall intensity alert stations Station Maximum Rainfall Intensity Frequency (years ARI) Duration (hours) Baxters Creek Alert (540189) >100 2 – 24 Blackbutt Alert (540493) 50 – 100 36 -72 Boat Mountain Alert (540141) 100 9 to 36 Brisbane City Alert (540198) 1 – 2 24 – 72 Caboonbah Alert (540155) 100 48 – 72 Cooyar Creek Alert(540146) 20 – 50 36 - 72 Cressbrook Dam Alert (540142) 10 – 20 36 to 72 Crows Nest Alert (540161) 20 – 50 36 – 72 Devon Hills Alert (540188) 20 – 50 12 - 72 Enoggera Dam Alert (540119) 5 – 10 48 to 72 Ferris Knob Alert (540190) 50 72 Gatton Alert (540156) 20 – 50 48 – 72 Glenore Grove Alert (540149) 100 9 – 12 Gold Ck Reservoir Alert (540107) 5 – 10 1 Greenbank (Thompson Rd) Alert (040794) 2 48 to 72 Gregor Ck Alert (540139) 100 6 to 72 Harrisville Alert (540154) 5 – 10 36 Jimna Alert (540167) 10 – 20 48 - 72 Jindalee Alert (540192) 1 – 2 48 – 72 Jingle Down Alert (40786) 2 1 Kalbar Weir Alert (540151) 2 – 5 36 – 72 Kilcoy Alert (540163) 50 48 – 72 Kluvers Lookout Alert (540168) >100 5 - 18 Linville Alert (540261) 20 72 Little Egypt Alert (540170) 10 1 Lyons Bridge Alert (540174) >100 3 - 72 Lyons Bridge Alert (540175) >100 3 – 72 Moggill Alert-P (540200) 1 – 2 6– 18, 36 - 72 Mt Binga Alert (540494) 50 – 100 36 – 72 Mt Castle Alert (540171) >100 36 - 72 Mt Crosby Alert (540199) 2 – 5 48 – 72 Mt Glorious Alert-P (540138) >100 3 - 24 Mt Mee Alert-B (540246) 50 – 100 48 - 72 Mt Mee Alert-P (540185) 50 – 100 48 - 72 Mt Pechey Alert (541057) 10 48 - 72 Nukinenda Alert (540172) 20 – 50 48 - 72 O’Reilly’s Weir Alert (540153) >100 4 – 72 Oogerah Dam (040135) 5 – 10 48 – 72 Rosentreters Bridge Alert (540148) 20 – 50 36 - 72 Rosewood Alert (540193) >100 7 – 12 Savages Crossing Alert (540150) >100 1 - 72 Showground Weir Alert (540158) 50 9 - 12 Somerset Dam HW Alert (540160) >100 48 - 72 St. Aubyns Alert (540144) 20 – 50 4 – 9 Tallegalla Alert (040503) >100 2 to 72 Tarome Alert (540173) 5 – 10 9 - 72 Thornton Alert (540169) 50 12 Toogoolawah Alert (540165) 50 -100 24 -72 Toowoomba Alert (540162) 20 – 50 1 Top of Brisbane Alert (540164) >100 5 - 18 Table 6: shows the duration of rainfall intensity. (Source: Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 31) The duration ranges from 5 minutes to 72 hours. The high rainfall intensity indicates that the area experiences severity. With the highlighted rainfall intensity in Linville station, Wivenhoe dam catchment rate was at 68mm/hr for 12hrs (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 32). The three stations, Linville, cooyar and Toogoolawah experience rainfall intensity for up to 72hrs. The intensity is quite immense hence there it increases the possibilities of flash floods in river Brisbane. (Source: Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 42) The graph above illustrates the history of Brisbane River flooding. The highest recorded level is 8.35m. The largest flood of the 20th century was recorded in January 1974 with a height5 of 5.45 m (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). 3.0 Part C - Site Selection The location of the study is quite appropriate since it has a history of experiencing floods (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The site also has substantial physical infrastructure that are prone to damage (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 21). The dam operation is quite demanding hence the heavy rainfall seems to overwhelm the function it is supposed to handle (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 52). Brisbane River is the longest river in south Queensland. The river runs for 120km before draining into Lake Wivenhoe. Brisbane River’s catchment stretches up to 13570km2. Linville is located in Queensland with a population of 11000 people. It is 31 km from Kilcoy and 33km from Nanango. Its graphical coordinates are 26.82° South 152.27° East. It has an elevation of 140 meters (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). The maps below show the strategic position of Linville on Queensland map. They also show that Linville is located upstream of Brisbane river. Linville borders Cooyar and Toogoolash which are all found upstream of wivenhoe Dam (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). (source: Google maps. Map of Linville n.d.). In the event that the dam is exposed to larger floods like in the case of January 2011, the spillway breaks off the gate operation. Flood engineers ought to assess the incoming data as well as forecasts in order to make robust decisions before disaster strikes (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). Flood forecasting relies most on data collected relating to stream flow and rainfall data (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 95). The engineers need to acquire hydrological skill and be familiar with the catchment behaviour. The uncertainty in the spatial increase in rainfall amount in the recent years, it is mandatory that every engineer working in the dam to be familiar with the catchment and rain pattern (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The bureau of meteorology had issued a stern warning to the public and the government that the strength of the la Niña will cause rain havoc (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). 4.0 Part D - Public Health & Environmental Aspects The floods occurred in an area which is largely in habited by human development (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 21). These brought about negative impacts to the environment. Large amount of water and suspended river sediments were displaced on to the vast land (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 163). The impact on flora and fauna is also intense. Previous floods have resulted in reduction in the depth of the river, and generating new sand banks. The hazard hinders the navigation of ships and boats navigating through the river (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 17). The excessive rainfall over December and first half of January resulted in almost every river flooding within that region (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). The flood caused a lot of havoc with thirty five people dead and three missing. About 78% of the state was declared a disaster zone. 98% of the rail system, 19000 kilometres of roads and three main ports were all damaged. The aftermath of the floods led to the establishment of community recovery centres with more than 55,000 volunteers (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 10). This community involvement was tremendous as they assisted to clean up Brisbane streets and homes that were wrecked in that flood. In addition, Red Cross and lifeline provided a full range services in areas such as Lockyer valley and Toowoomba which were hard hit by the floods (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). Most of the residents of Queensland suffered communicable disease as well as psychological distress. The physical illnesses reported by most individual were due to lack of environmental hygiene and difficulty in accessing medical services. Children and the old were the most vulnerable (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 14). 5.0 Part E - Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment 5.1 key players involved in the assessment The flood that hit the area in January 2011 affected over 2.5 million people. Close to 29000 homes and business were destroyed. Queensland reconstruction authority estimated the const of the damage to be $5 billion. With the result of the regular flood plains that hit the area, the council should come up with a flood map which will clearly indicate the zones of risk (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). In addition, there should be principled flood plain management plans that accord distribution of resources as wells as comprehensive monitoring of the water flow levels in the Brisbane River. The flood operation centre has access to all necessary tools and data (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 51). Therefore, it has to be appraised and be responsible for the consequences of its operations in the dam (Engineers Australia 2012). More over, the dams constructed have to contain a hydrodynamic model that is reliable in controlling Brisbane River down stream (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 20). The control over temporary alteration of full supply of the dams is normally carried out to assess the strength of the operational gates and prepare the dam for any abrupt increase in water level on river Brisbane. The dam is constructed specifically to provide a buffer against floods (King, 2008). Flood risk assessment also involves the bureau of meteorology. The bureau makes seasonal forecasts notifying the dam operation team of the wet seasons (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The bureau also goes ahead to advice the government to reduce the supply level since the dam will be overwhelmed by the increase in water flow level (Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council 2011). The ignorance portrayed by dam operators contributed to the flooding of the dam (King, 2008). The dam operators declined to heed to the warning issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 631). By assessing the situation, the operators would have reduced the level of water in the dam storage in anticipation for the heavy rains (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 21). 5.2 Recommendation in emergency management Scientific investigations and recommendations are key elements of concerns to the dam management (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 590). The state disaster management is responsible for carrying out planning and preparation for coming wet seasons. Risk management which is a fundamental procedure in disaster management should be given priority (King, 2008). A state wide hazard assessment should be carried out, and results submitted to local government (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 151). In addition, the area should have an emergency management unit as a guideline and planning for disaster management (Engineers Australia 2012). This disaster management plan should coincide with the act of parliament that mandates this action (disaster management act of 2003). It is also prudent that the emergency management should be standardised with the necessary guidance (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 21). All in all it should be consistent and effective. In order to stress consistency of the programme, Queensland local government has rolled out campaigns and community education on safety measures to take when the river bursts its banks and flood strikes (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 551). The campaigns use various media such as newspaper, television documentaries and community meetings organised by civic leaders. It is also mandatory that after the dam constructed should be able to provide protection of the urban areas from being submerged in water. During construction, structural safety of the dam should be a foremost concern to the architects (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). Apart from the most obvious objective, the dam is expected to serve contradictory functions. The dam should play a role in minimising disruption of rural life especially in valleys (McAneney, J & Robin, 2011, p. 12). Furthermore, the dam should be in a capacity to retain full supply level after a flooding event (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 49). Another function it should carry out well is to minimise impact caused to flora and fauna during the drain down phase. References Engineers Australia 2012, Engineers Australia, viewed 21 May 2012, . Flood Assistance; Lockyer Valley Regional Council: Gatton, Australia 2011, viewed 17 august 2012 Google maps. Map of Linville, n.d., image, viewed 17 august 2012, King, R 2008, 'Engineers for the Future', Australian Council of Engineering Deans, viewed 17 August 2012, . McAneney, J & Robin, C. van den Honert 2011, ‘The 2011 Brisbane Floods: Causes, Impacts and Implications’ pp. 1 - 25 viewed 17 august 2012 Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011, viewed 15 august 2012 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, pp. 1 – 266, viewed 16 august 2012 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, pp. 1-658 viewed 15 August 2012, Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011, pp. 1 – 66, viewed 17 august 2012, Read More

1.1 Individual learning goals Problem solving techniques entails understanding issues, and implications by coming up with suitable decisions. In addition, the strategy provides a tool for analysing critical situations and availing informed decisions. In this task, the team is expected to determine rainfall patterns within a period of six months (King, 2008). Furthermore, the portfolio will provide team members with procedures on how to successfully apply the strategy in solving the task at hand.

Below is a table of goals to be achieved by the members by the end of the exercise (King, 2008). Goals to be learned in this section How the goals will be incorporated Individual statistical analysis and planning Acquiring data from bureau of meteorology draw graphs and explaining the outcome of the plotted graphs. Employ career technical procedures and assessment Come up with possible solutions that will help to tackle the issue professionally Assessing the efficacy and effectiveness of the individual portfolio Using the proposed solution we apply them and see if they are effective.

Development towards professionalism in problem solving techniques The most effective solutions are acknowledged as the best strategies in problem solving. Manage information and documentation Use the portfolio to come up with a crucial report and recommendations. Table 1: Individual learning goals 2.0 Part B – Statistical Component For a clean analysis, of the rainfall pattern data containing rainfall amount in Linville is extracted from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. The data extracted will be for a period of six months from August 2010 to January 2011 (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011).

The data indicates that the area experienced extremely wet period as from late November 2010 to mid January 2010 when the flood stroke. In the month of January, there was a major rain event at Linville and the entire Queensland region (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 12). The total rainfall recorded in that month alone was way above average (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). This extreme wet period was the cause of many flash floods in different rivers in Queensland (Brisbane River included).

The 2011 period Month Amount of rainfall August 2010 107.4 September 2010 121.3 October 2010 231.6 November 2010 16.4 December 2010 373.6 January 2011 436.3 Table 2: shows the amount of rainfall collected in 2011 period (source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The graph shows the gradual increase in rainfall amount over the six months period (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011). The bureau of meteorology data and forecasting provides a clear basis of possibilities of heavy rainfall as the trend continues (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011).

This forecast should prepare the management of Wivenhoe Dam for an increase in the inflow of water into the dam (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2012, p. 451). Since its construction, the dam has served the purpose of regulating the flow of Brisbane River (Report to the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry 2011). 2.1 Monthly rainfall analysis In an analysis, of the pattern of annual rainfall for the last twenty years the area has had fluctuating precipitation level (Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011).

Table 3: shows annual precipitation in the area for the last two decades. (Source: Monthly Weather Review Queensland January 2011) The graph below indicates the trend of the fluctuating rainfall shooting as high as 1300 mm in the last year. The steep slop of the curve towards the end is a clear indication that the rains will be increasing even further. In a further description of the statistics collected, the maximum, minimum and mean of the rainfall collected within the six months is used to determine the standard deviation of the data (Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011, p. 52).

Read More