The Hockey Stick Controversy and the Legitimacy of IPCC's : Human Impact on Climate Change - Research Paper Example

The Hockey Stick Controversy and the Legitimacy of IPCCs Research about the Human Impact on Climate Change 13rd December The hockey stick controversy is a series of controversial debates that have faced the climate change world. It involves the hockey stick graphs, which are a series of graphs, which shows implications of global warming that shows reconstructed estimates of the temperature recoded for the previous 1000 years. The hockey stick controversy is about the use of a collection of graphs to convey complex scientific messages to the public. The controversy also looks at the question of the sturdiness of the impost offered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These arguments have been taken up by the fossil fuel industry and have been funded by lobby groups that attempt to cast doubt on climate science. The controversy became prominent in the 1990s when a group of scientists who used proxy indicators to indicate temperature records in the previous centuries found different reasons that caused global warming and argued them differently (Jolis, 2012). A group of scientists such as Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, and Malcolm K. raised some of those controversies by using statistical analysis of an assortment of proxies to come up with the first quantifiable hemispheric-scale reconstruction presenting global configurations of annual surface temperature. The graph shows temperatures that dates back to 1400 whereby they shaded the areas to show emphasis of uncertainties whereby the two standard error limits were larger than in earlier centuries. The above group of scientists published a paper in 1999 that traced back climatic changes for the previous 1000 years using extended graph that showed a descending tendency in proxy temperatures from a medieval warm period trailed by a 20th century escalation and a steep upsurge in measured temperatures since the 1950s. According to United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Third Assessment Report (TAR), the year 1998, was the warmest year in the northern hemisphere for the last 1000 years. The above organizations used the controversial hockey stick graphs to publicize the featured information. The information became a focus for dispute for the people who were contrasting to the strengthening scientific agreement that late 20th century warmness was unique. Some of the scientists who were opposed to these changes were Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas. However, scientists later dismissed their publication as deeply flawed (McKitrick, 2010). I also disagree with the legitimacy of the previous research used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since their research shows less dramatic results if techniques that are more reliable had been used to analyze the data. Later researches have shown that an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activity is a prime cause global warming. However, arguments in favor for global warming were already accepted widely as a prime cause for increased temperatures in the world. Conclusions made from other scientists shows that making the world warmer undoubtedly is not determined by reconstructions of temperature aforementioned to direct records. Most error pieces fall inside the stated hockey stick pieces created by Mann and his team of scientists but can be collected to indicate the late temperatures. There are major doubts about the correctness of all previous temperature re-establishments, and these qualms have sometimes to be glossed over by scientists who presented the hockey stick as suggestion for global warming (Regalado, 2005). Michael E. Mann, Raymond S., Bradley, and Malcolm K., have remodeled northern hemisphere temperatures for the previous 2000 years to incorporate a wider set of proxies than what was accessible for the original study and updated measurements from the late years. I the new reconstruction, different methods am used as compared to the previous methods used in the original case. It shows variability from the original hockey stick curves. Moreover, scientists involved in the IPCC process excluded references to papers that they assumed to contradict their intended conclusion. The data obtained in the IPCC process also involves very complex multi-stage and authors of 450 lead and 800 contributing authors who manipulated the information to obtain their intended conclusions. Even though the results are similar, the northern hemisphere is now hotter than the 1000 years ago. Evidence from ice cores and sea sediments show that the recent and only time in which the earth approached these degrees of temperatures was during interglacial period preceding the last ice age more than 100,000 years ago. Other researchers suggest that the temperatures now in the northern hemisphere can be warmer at present than it has been for no less than a million years. Even though it has been hotter in the recent years, the world has changed to be a more different world as compared to the past. The modern philosophy of civilization has been built around the prevailing climatic conditions and current sea levels. I therefore defer with Michael E. Mann, Raymond S., Bradley, and Malcolm K., research since it did not take into consideration of this features (Mann, 2012). The hockey stick graph does not indicate in the long-term trend that each year will be warmer the previous year due to accumulation of CFC gases. Unlike the single method used by the IPCC to evaluate global warming, many other processes affect global average temperatures, which include anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Moreover, solar rays forcing internal variation in the system affect changes in the temperatures. For instance, the 5-7 year El-Niño Southern Oscillation of rainfall patterns, or the 20-30 year pacific decadal oscillation. Moreover, multiple sources of evidence give hint to an increasing trend to global warming. The global average temperatures include the air temperatures of the earth that are recorded over the land as well as the temperature over the surfaces of the oceans. Mostly, scientists prefer using water temperatures since they respond slowly to temperature variations as compared to air. According to scientists, the ocean heat content far surpasses that of the land. Its atmosphere and has been increasing over since the 1970 (Carroll, 2011). The hockey stick graph is not consistent with the observation that it makes. When a certain small component is altered in its model simulations, it changes the whole result even though it was not required. For instance, if the model simulation is used in analyzing a 5000-year period, it found variations in the climate system such as El Niño and could not lead to decadal scale episodes whereby global average temperatures are consistently above or below the long-term trend (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). The Medieval Warm Period temperatures noted in the hockey stick graph vary in comparison with tree ring reconstruction done noting that it does not show a clear Medieval Warm Period. The variation suggest that global warming can be attributed to about 1500 years back which scientists relate to episodic variations in the Atlantics conveyor circulation. Unlike the hockey stick graph that suggests that Medieval Warm Period is most widespread in the northern hemisphere, most researchers have showed that the Medieval Warm Period is prevalent in the extra humid northern hemisphere, and seemed to have advanced late in the 20th century (Littlemore, 2009). In conclusion, the methods used by IPCC gave way to a series of research that was meant to correct the mistakes done by the group. It is because of these that scientists have made the correct measurements to analyze global warming from more than 1000 years ago. Moreover, all of the instrumental records being show that the temperature of the earth continues to increase, an issue that is raising a lot of concern because of the devastating effect that it has on the future of the earth. The instruments show that the temperature of the earth continues to increase in both the long term and the short term. Periods of steady temperatures are regular with the interaction of many factors, which shape climate variations. References Carroll, R. (2011). The Skeptics Dictionary: A Collection of Strange Beliefs, Amusing Deceptions, and Dangerous Delusions. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 : Synthesis Report : Summary for Policymakers. New York: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Jolis, A. (2012). The climate kamikaze; "the hockey stick and the climate wars" argues that global temperatures have risen in conjunction with our use of fossil fuels. Wall Street Journal, pp. n/a. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/927945729?accountid=45049 Littlemore, R. (2009). Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming. Boston: Greystone Books. Mann, M. (2012). The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. New York: Columbia University Press. McKitrick, R. (2010). The "hockey stick" graph. Fraser Forum, 30-32, 4. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/229273067?accountid=45049 Regalado, A. (2005). Researchers, lawmakers criticize inquiry into climate calculations. Wall Street Journal, pp. A.4. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/398933012?accountid=45049 Read More