The National Risk Register - Report Example

THE NATIONAL RISKS REGISTER OF CIVIL EMERGENCIES 2012 By (Name) Course Professor’s name University name City, State Date of submission Summary of the article The national risk register of civil emergencies 2012 edition has the mandate to inform the public of existing, emerging, and projected civil emergencies. Some of the major functions of the national register for civil emergencies 2012 include the provision of up to date information concerning civil emergencies and the consequences of the civil emergencies. The most common consequences of civil emergencies include disruption of services such as energy, water and food supply, injuries, death and illnesses (Hayward 2010). In addition to the provision of timely information, National Register for civil emergencies outlines the guidance on how individuals or organizations ought to prepare for civil emergencies and mitigation strategies (Cabinet Office 2012). According to the national risk register of civil emergencies 2012, risks still exist despite the tremendous measures that have put in place to improve national security. The occurrence of civil emergencies is likely to continue for next five years. The document further identifies some of risk given highest priority such as coastal flooding, volcanic eruptions, catastrophic terrorism, and pandemic influenza. The report stipulates that the occurrences of civil emergencies with the exception of terrorism are predictable especially through application of historical analysis and numeric modeling. Terrorism is exempted from the common predictability methods because the risk purely depends on an individual’s willingness and capability to execute the act NATO (2014). In addition to historical analysis and numeric models, the report identified risk matrices and worse scenario approach as also effective means of analyzing and predicting risks. Using historical analysis the document suggests that severe space weather should be one the risks; because the occurrence of severe space weather may results to disrupted energy and communications systems as it happened in 1859. Despite risk matrices and worst-case scenario being common tools in risk identification and assessment, the two tools are not effective when risks are highly unpredictable and marked with uncertainties, for example, terrorism (Cabinet Office 2012). Risk assessment process The report applied risk matrix in determining the likelihood of the common civil emergencies in the United Kingdom. The matrixes were divided into terrorism and other malicious attacks and relative plausibility and the impact score of natural hazard’s risks and major accidents (Cabinet Office 2012). According to the matrix in the 2012 NRR, catastrophic terrorist attacks had the highest impact score and the lowest plausibility. Meaning in case of terrorism occurrence, the impact of the risks far-reaching; however, the occurrence of terrorism is rare resulting to the lower plausibility. The analysis further reveals that cyber-attack and data confidentiality risks have the highest plausibility and the lowest impact score. The occurrence could be interpreted that the chances of cyber-attack and data confidentiality risks are high, but the impact of the risks are mild and are of least public concern Keen (2008). Attacks on public transport system have relatively high impact score and high plausibility, meaning the probability of the risk occurrence is high, and the impact is far-reaching. A slightly similar score of attacks on public transport system is experienced on attacks on crowded places. Risks of attacks on infrastructure and small scale CBR had a medium score on both impact score and plausibility. The risk of cyber infrastructure had a medium impact score with low plausibility (Cabinet Office 2012). In the natural hazards and major accidents risks, pandemic Influenza had the highest impact score and likelihood. Meaning the occurrence of pandemic Influenza has a devastating impact on the population, and the prevalence of the disease is very high. Other hazards and major accidents that that have a high likelihood of occurrence and severe impacts include coastal flooding and effusive volcanic eruption. Other infectious diseases and inland flooding registered medium scores, the likelihood of the two events is not so very high and the impact of their occurrence does not have very severe impact on the population. Severe space weather, low temperature and heavy snow, heat waves, explosive volcanic eruptions, storms and gales, public disaster and disruptive industrial actions have a high likelihood of occurrence with low risk. Zoonotic animal diseases, drought, and non-zoonotic animal diseases have a medium likelihood with reduced impact. Major industrial accidents and major transport accidents have a medium high impact score and a low likelihood occurrence (Cabinet Office 2012). Discussion According to the statistics in NRR 2012, pandemic Influenza has the highest chances of occurrence and is significantly destructive because the disease has occurred in the United Kingdom severally. For example, the disease occurred in 1918, 1919, 1957, 1968, 1969 and 2009.Even though H1N1 Influenza control is enjoying huge success H5N1 Influenza still pose a huge threat in the future. Despite the heavy investment on flood management, flood is still a risk because a combination of high tides and strong surge could still pose a severe risk to the community. Volcanic eruptions are threats because the gas or ash emitted could have adverse effects on health, agriculture and jeopardize transport. The UK government thinks that the terrorist attack does not pose a big threat, as mechanisms on the ground to counter the risk are sufficient (Trim 2008). Limitations of NRR 2012 Civil emergency identified in the document are real, but relative plausibility shown in the matrix is of questionable credibility and reliability. The risk matrix used in NRR depicts that catastrophic terrorist attack is medium while attack on the public transport is high; this is not true as the public transport in the United Kingdom is more secure. Impact score on terrorism overlooked the fact that terrorist attacks occur when least expected for example 9/11 scenario. NRR used risk matrix approach, which is prone to error when used beyond its limitations. Risk matrix mostly depends on human decision; this greatly affects the approach as human decision makers tend to simply complex issues such as the probability of civil emergency occurrence in the next five years. Despite the limitations, NRR 2012 is an important document that contains vital information about civil emergencies; the information assists in planning and risk mitigation. The information is also important as the public are in a position to predict the civil risks that are likely to face them in the future. In the document, the risks are described in depth ensuring that the document is informative and helpful. The risks are categorized making their understating easier. The National Risks Register of Civil Emergencies 2013 The 2013 national risks register of civil emergency slightly differs from the 2012 NRR according to the articles provided. The 2013 NRR starts with a brief definition of civil emergencies whereby civil emergency is defined as any events or situation that threatens or damages human welfare. Civil emergency could further be defined as any situation that threatens to cause serious damages to the environment (Birrell 2011). The 2012 NRR instead of the definition gives a brief overview of the importance of the NRR to the people of the United Kingdom. The second difference between the two articles is that the 2013 NRR elaborates how the civil emergencies are identified rather than just mentioning the identification tools as done in the 2012 NRR. The 2013 NRR elucidates that given the unpredictable nature of civil emergencies, the first step to emergency identification is consulting experts of various government departments, devolved administrations and other branches of government functions. The experts are in a better position to identify and predict possible major accidents, natural events, or malicious attacks that could expose humans and the environment to risk. A civil emergency is then chosen based on a reasonable worst case. A reasonable worst case is the challenging manifestation in an event after excluding highly implausible outcomes. The consultations with the experts have yielded 80 types of events that are captured in the definition of civil emergency. Some other 40 events are reserved in a separate list. The reserved events do not currently meet the definition of civil emergency but could meet the definition in the future. Keeping the reserved events under review is, therefore, of paramount importance (Cabinet Office 2013). Assessment of civil emergencies The 2013 NRR unlike the 2012 NRR further elaborates how civil emergencies assessment is carried out. Some of the factors considered during the assessment include fatalities, illness or injuries, economic harm and psychological impact such as stress, depression, anxiety and outrages Long (2009). Other factors include social disruption such as inability to access essential supplies for instance, food, water and fuel or inability to access social amenities such as healthcare or learning institutions. Preparation for emergencies The 2013 NRR article outlines local preparations for emergencies; the article states that local emergency responders and emergency planners have the responsibility of planning and responding to emergencies. The major duties of the planners and the responders are to identify and evaluate the risk of emergencies, maintain an emergency response plan and ensure that they are psychologically prepared to work during the emergencies. In addition to planners and responders, government departments also play a role in emergency preparation through policy oversight, coordination, and management Cabinet Office (2013). The 2012 NRR article omits the preparation for emergencies outline. The other difference between the two articles is that in the 2013 NRR the risk are discussed into depth while in 2012 NRR the risks are just mentioned in a list form without giving any further explanation. However, both articles identify and give a brief explanation of highest priority risk depending on the likelihood and impact of the risks. The highest priority risks covered by both articles include pandemic influenza, coastal flooding, catastrophic terrorist attack, and severe effusive volcanic eruptions. Apart from the highest priority risks mentioned by the two articles, the 2013 articles include severe wildfires as newly assed highest priority risk. The 2013 matrix also has some changes in the arrangement of the risks, for instance, public disorder has moved a box to the left, to take into account the 2011 riots. The zoonotic and non- zoonotic diseases are also combined under one risk called animal diseases (Cabinet Office 2013). Risks The 2013 NRR outlines various risks, the definition of the risks, the dangers of the risks and the government initiative in mitigating the risks. The first risk outlined by the article is the pandemic influenza Cabinet Office (2011). Pandemic influenza is a human disease that has occurred severally in the past and has the possibility of occurring in the future. The consequences of the disease are far-reaching because apart from the severe health effects, the diseases also cause widespread social and economic damage. Experts speculate that the future Influenza would infect millions of people globally resulting to a global disruption and possible humanitarian crisis. According to the World Health Organization, an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths may result from the future Influenza. In the UK, it is estimated that up to one-half of the population may show the symptoms and hundreds of deaths cannot be ruled out (Giuffrida 2012). Other examples of human diseases that pose global threats are the Lujo virus and SARS. The government plans to counter the emergence of pandemics such as Influenza by having sufficient stock of antiviral, Advance Purchase Agreements of pandemic specific vaccine and strengthening of the UK Influenza pandemic preparedness and strategy (Cabinet Office 2012). The second risk discussed in the article was floods; floods have far-reaching impact in the affected areas. Floods result from the sea, rivers, or surface water. The most common types of floods in the UK include coastal flooding and inland flooding. Some of the impacts of floods are collapsing of bridges, severing or road networks and cutting off communities. The government program of flood risk management has the responsibility of mitigating the likelihood or consequences of floods (Cabinet Office 2013). The article also expounds volcanic risks that may affect aviation and pose fetal environmental and public health concerns. Volcanic eruption could also have negative economic impact and interfere with important supply chain. The International Civil Aviation Organization has the responsibility of coordinating and disseminating information about volcanic activities. Other risks discussed in the article include severe space weather such as wind, rain, and snow. Severe weather such as storms and gales, heat waves, low temperature and heavy snow and drought, and wildfires were also discussed. Other risks include animal diseases such foot and mouth disease, west Nile virus, avian influenza, and rabies. The article further covered major industrial risks such as fires, contaminations, and technical failures. Major transport accidents, disruptive industrial action, public disorder, and attacks on crowded places were also part of the article. The article lastly covered infrastructure, transport system, unconventional attacks, catastrophic terrorists’ attacks, and cyber security (Cabinet Office 2013). The article did not mention the positive talking points of the 2013 NRR. However, some of obvious positive impacts of the 2013 NRR include the proper organization. Making NRR 2013 easy to read and comprehend. The article is also more informative and is useful in helping the communities plan better for the risks. The article is also an important planning tool for the government. Even though the 2013 NRR does not include the 40 risks as major risks, the article puts the risks under review meaning any slight change in the risk is noticeable. The 2013 NRR is more comprehensive and articulate about the risks compared to the 2012 NRR. Bibliography Birrell. D, (2011) "The Management of Civil Emergencies in Northern Ireland," Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management: 79-89. Cabinet Office, (2011)"National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies," National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. Cabinet Office, (2012) "National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies," National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. Cabinet Office, (2013) "National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies," National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies: 1-11. "Civil Emergency Planning (CEP)." NATO. Web. 4 Dec. 2014. . Giuffrida, L, (2012) "Information Systems: Key to Effective Management of Civil Emergencies." The Information Society 1.1 (2012): 291-301. Hayward, P, (2010) "The Role of the European Community in Civil and Environmental Emergencies." Disaster Prevention and Management: 89-92. Keen, D, Complex Emergencies. Cambridge: Polity, 2008. Long, F, (2009) "Psychological Support in Civil Emergencies: The National Emergency Behavior Management System of Singapore," International Review of Psychiatry: 209-14. Trim, R, (2008)"An Integrative Approach to Disaster Management and Planning," Disaster Prevention and Management: 218-25. Read More