Who are the nations who threaten our, Americas, standing in the world market place - Research Paper Example

?Introduction While the United s is still the largest economy in the world, it faces challenges from global competitors. China, Japan, India andGermany are all countries that have gained ground on the United States in recent years and continue to do so. China, in particular, has proved to be a looming threat. It pulled out of the global recession much sooner than did the United States, due to a myriad of factors. Moreover, the people of China still lag behind the rest of the world in terms of wealth, therefore China is reliant upon the world market for its growth. This is the reason why China has carried an enormous trade balance with the United States. Japan, once a large threat, is now much less of one, as China has surpassed it in recent months in terms of the size of the economy, and Japan continues to have troubles due to the recent disasters. India is growing as well, and, like China, has a problem in that its citizenry is not as prosperous as more developed countries. Germany, meanwhile, probably presents the least threat of all the countries examined here, as it has grown in recent months, but this growth has been driven by its domestic sector, not the world market. China While the United States and most of the world remain mired in the worst economic slowdown in decades, China remains relatively unscathed. In fact, it posted a gross domestic product growth rate of 7.1% for the first half of 2009, and its economy expanded by 10% in 2010 (“China Economy Hums Along as U.S. Remains Mired in Recession”). Although this is actually a decrease from the exponential growth rate experienced before the worldwide economic collapse (“Is China Recession Proof?”), it still shows strong growth in the face of a worldwide recession and has prompted some to proclaim that China is the first major country out of recession (Lau). The reasons why China pulled out of the recession so quickly, while Western countries remain struggling, are myriad and complex. Contributing to the Chinese recover are the frugality of the Chinese people (Warner), the fact that China is still a developing country with a large rural population that are migrating to the cities, which caused a boom in infrastructure spending (Hexter & Woetzel), a massive increase in overseas investments (Ford), and the fact that Chinese banks are controlled by the Chinese government, which eases the flow of lending (“China Economy Hums Along as U.S. Remains Mired in Recession”). However, one of the most important factors that sets China apart is its economic stimulus plan (Reyes), that was more successful than the U.S.'s similar stimulus plan, in large part because China did not have the existing debt that the United States did prior to enacting the stimulus plan (Lau). The example set by the Chinese might be able to be emulated by the United States and other countries, however, since China has a unique set of circumstances, it is improbable that other countries can duplicate its success. At any rate, China seems poised to bring the rest of the world out of recession, when, in prior recessions, the United States has led the way (Schwartz). The great untapped potential in Chinese domestic consumption are the rural areas, whose consumption lag behind urban areas by 10 years (Reyes). This, in large part, is because of the great income disparity between the two sectors, and because rural residents are compelled to save because of the current lack of a reliable social security system and the fact that over 99% of rural residents do not have health insurance (Reyes). China's contributions to insurance and pensions should therefore help in increasing the ability of the rural residents to consume. This increase in consumption will, in turn, offset the decrease in exports and presumably make China less dependent on the export market, thereby stabilizing China's economy (Reyes). Indeed, China is currently entering a period where they are poised to increase their consumption levels substantially, purchasing their first automobiles and first commercially developed apartments (“Is China Recession Proof?). Hence, retail consumption is booming, growing at an annual rate of 17% (Sherwood). Yet another factor in the economic resurgence of China is, ironically, the global recession (Ford). Because the global recession has pushed down the price of foreign assets, China, with its banks willing to freely lend money, has gone on a spending spree, buying natural resources, such as oil and minerals, and private Chinese industries are investing in troubled overseas companies (Ford). These investments are made possible by Beijing relaxation of overseas investment rules, in response to intense criticism about its trade surplus (Bezlova). Among these deals is the government buying an 18% slice of the Australian mining company, Rio Tinto; China's second-large oil producer, China Petrochemical Corp, purchasing Canadian company Tanganyika Oil; and China Midmetals bidding for OZ Minerals, an Australian zinc producer (Ford). China has also used the global recession to secure oil supplies from Russia, Brazil and Venezuela (Ford). Beijing has also invested $39 billion to secure future oil supplies from Russia, Brazil and Venezuela. A part of this $39 billion investment is a $25 billion loan to Russia, in exchange for a promise to supply 250,000 barrels of oil a day for the next quarter century and build a pipeline to China (Ford). A $10 billion loan to Brazil secured a promise to provide 160,000 barrels of oil a day for the next quarter century, and a promise from Venezuela to provide up to 1 million barrels per day until 2015 was secured by a $4 billion loan to that country (Ford). Additionally, the Chinese government acquired a 10% stake in Morgan Stanley, with hopes that this purchase would provide an inroad into Wall Street and “reduce trade frictions between the two countries.” (Bezlova). However, this investment in Morgan Stanley is not an indication that Beijing is interested in investing heavily in the troubled United States financial sector, for few predict that Beijing will make a push in this direction (Ford). Beijing has lost between half and two-thirds of previous investments with Morgan Stanley, Blackstone and Barclays, which makes it less likely to want to make significant inroads in the financial sector, and investments in natural resources are undoubtedly beneficial to and strategic for China, which makes these investments much more sound (Ford). Chinese investments were accelerated by the creation of a $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, known as the China Investment Corporation (CIC) (Bezlova). The powerful fund, with the agenda of buying foreign assets and natural resources, has drawn criticism, buzz and fear around the world (Bezlova). The fears are that this fund will be used to “take over key domestic industries in the United States and Europe,” (Bezlova), which has prompted the Group of Seven leading nations and the International Monetary Fund to design rules and codes for the CIC and other world-wide groups like it (Bezlova). Accelerating the fears are that Chinese investment firms will be given an infusion of state aid, which would give them an unfair advantage over western investment firms (Ford). These fears have led to such as incidents as the Washington-forced 2005 withdraw of a bid from the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for the U.S. oil firm, Unocal, even though the CNOOC offered more money than its closest competitor, Chevron (Ford). Because of this action, and other protectionist actions that might be spurred by the fears of Chinese dominance, some argue that the CIC should concentrate its efforts on developing countries, with fewer regulatory hurdles than the United States(Bezlova). “The CIC should set its target on emerging markets where there is a lack of capital and they are looking to attract strategic investors,” argues Zhang Ming, an economic expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Bezlova). How China can pull the U.S. out of recession is by, among other things, evening out the trade imbalance (Warner). According to Fred Bergsten, from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, “the entirety of the U.S. economic growth over the last year has come from the improvement in our trade balance...export expansion has been giving us at least some modicum of growth.” (Warner). China represents, by far, the biggest expansion in the United States export market, growing 10 times as fast as our exports to the world as a whole (Warner). In particular, China is a big importer of U.S. “advanced technological equipment, energy resources, raw material and overseas investments.” (Xinyu). China continues to have a massive trade deficit with the United States, making up 83% of the U.S. trade deficits in non-oil goods, up from only 26% in 2000 (“China Economy Hums Along as U.S. Remains Mired in Recession”). This poses a great political problem, as Washington remains wary of the Chinese potential to compete for American manufacturing jobs (“China Economy Hums Along as U.S. Remains Mired in Recession”). All of this has helped China become the second-largest economy in the world, having passed Japan in August of 2010. At that time, China’s economy was valued at $1.33 trillion, while Japan’s was valued at $1.28 trillion. At the rate that China is growing, it is estimated that its economy will actually surpass that of the United States by the year 2030 (Barboza, 2010). Japan In contrast to China, Japan has been having economic problems in recent years. While its export growth has remained strong, especially in the areas of automobiles, steel and non-ferrous metals, Japan’s major export market remains that of Asia and it has struggled to maintain its exports to the rest of the world (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). It is in the middle of a price decline, so it is suffering from deflationary conditions. Japan has been hard-hit by the global recession as, starting in August 2008, the demand for domestic and overseas products dropped sharply, which caused Japanese companies to reduce their inventory. This affected the automobile, digital-related, and general machinery industries. This also caused corporate profitability to sharply drop, and private capital investment to plunge substantially (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). Recurring profits, which had peaked during the Japanese bubble era and IT boom, dropped sharply because of the global recession (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). Companies have reduced their demand because of the world-wide economic downturn, which means that there are many Japanese out of work. However, as the rest of the world shows signs of pulling out of the recession, there have been some bright spots. Japanese corporations, which had toxic assets, have, by and large, disposed of these assets. This means that their finances and profitability have improved substantially. Moreover, this also bodes well for production and capital, as the risk of a downturn in production and capital investments have receded (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). Corporations have moved out of the worst phases of the downturn, because of the world market improvement and because a reduction in corporate fixed costs, such as personnel expenses. Another bright spot is the rise in eco-friendly products, as this is driving consumer spending in this area. Japan’s exports are increasing because of the world market recovery, with exports to Asia expanding at a brisk pace, and exports to the United States and Europe also increasing, but at a less exponential rate than the exports to the rest of Asia (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). The prices of raw materials worldwide seems to have bottomed out, which means that the prices are once again on the rise for these materials, especially crude oil and metals (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). All that said, Japan has, of course, been quite unlucky with the tsunami and the earthquake. These twin disasters have economists worried that Japan may be thrown back into recession. Toyota and Nissan have had to jettison all of their 20 factories, as these factories were situated in the worst-affected regions, and Honda has had to shut down two of its three factories as well (Webb, 2011). Other factories have been damaged, and these factories represent some of the global heavy-hitters – Kirin Holdings, Fuji Heavy Industries, GlaxoSmithKline and Nestle. All of these factories have also had to close because of damage. Moreover, a chain reaction is causing the yen to rise, which experts fear will make the cost of Japanese exports more expensive and will choke off its hoped-for recovery (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). The chain reaction that is causing a rise in the yen begins with the Bank of Japan, which is advancing money to commercial banks. This was necessitated by a fear that affected citizens will make a run on the banks to withdraw savings. The central bank has also flooded money markets with cash, in an attempt to stop the yen from rising. Meanwhile, the domestic industries in Japan are repatriating assets to prepare for the cost of domestic rebuilding (Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011). Therefore, while China is on the ascendency as a world power, Japan is on the decline. It has shown some bright spots in recent years, but it seems that the tsunami and earthquake has stopped its momentum dead in its tracks. There is some indication that, just as Japan has been surpassed by China on the world market stage, it may someday be also be eclipsed by India, which is the third largest economy in the world, in terms of purchasing power (India Economy). India India is actually expected to eclipse Japan to become the third largest economy by 2035, and it is expected to grow to 60% of the size of the United States economy by this time (India Economy). In the final three quarters of 2010, India’s economy was surging at a clip of 8.9%, which was a GDP record for the country (India Economy to Slow Down in 2011: Experts). Moreover, for the long term, India’s economy is expected to grow at the rate of 10% (India Economy to Slow Down in 2011: Experts). India is on the ascendency in the world market because of a combination of trade liberalization, financial liberalization, tax reforms and the opening up to foreign investments (India Economy). India has also been experiencing a period of sustainable growth, even though it has also been experiencing high inflation, currency appreciation in comparison to the U.S. Dollar, and a trade gap (Indian Economy 2011). The key drivers of the Indian economy are the agriculture and allied sector, which accounts for the most significant part of Indian’s economy; the mining sector, which is experiencing growth because of the demand for oil and gas; and manufacturing, which has been largely driven by domestic demand (Indian Economy 2011). Service exports, which includes IT services, has been on the decline, however, because the demand from the United States and Western Europe have been declining (Indian Economy 2011). That said, India faces a number of challenges in the near future, any of which might derail its plans for growth. For one, it has been experiencing a surge population. For another, some 36% of Indians are living below the poverty line, as of the years 1993-1994. Also, as with China, the majority of the Indian people live in villages, by some estimation 70% (India Economy). There must be a more balanced ratio of Indian citizens living in the city versus villages, because this is vital for the manufacturing and other segments. Without more urban citizens, India will not be able to grow (India Economy). While these represent the threats from the Asian countries, there is another threat coming from a European Country – Germany. Germany Germany is currently the largest economy in the European Union (Developments in the German Economy). Although Germany was in a recession with the rest of the world, it experienced its lowest unemployment rate in 20 years – 6.8% (Developments in the German Economy). This was aided by Germany’s fiscal policy, in which the government subsidized companies in an effort to keep workers on the payroll, as opposed to being on the government dole, and this policy has also helped Germany capitalize on an increase in demand for their products in recent months (Elliott, 2011). Moreover, it achieved a balanced budget before the global economic downturn, which enabled it to use fiscal policy to boost demand (Developments in the German Economy). The strength of its economy is in human capital and a commitment to research and development, with small and medium sized enterprises leading the way in the economy, along with the regional banking system (Developments in the German Economy). Germany’s manufacturing contributes 25% of GDP, which is twice as much as the U.K., which is the second leading European country in terms of manufacturing (Developments in the German Economy). The key driver of Germany’s growth is its domestic demand, although its export sector helped to bring its economy out of the economic downturn (Developments in the German Economy). Germany has really been surging as of late. In 2010, Germany’s GDP jumped 3.6%, which is a record for Germany. It is expected to grow at the rate of 2% in the year 2011 and 1.5% in the year 2012 (Vits, 2011). However, as indicated above, domestic demand continues to the driver of Germany’s economy, adding 2.5% to the GDP. This has been helped by the low unemployment rate, which boosted household spending in German households in the second half of 2010 (Vits, 2011). Germany continues to have a low budget deficit, at 3.5% of its GDP; this is compared to Ireland, which had a budget deficit at 32.3% of its GDP (Vits, 2011). Germany’s growth has come because of four different reasons, according to Vits (2011). The first is that Germany’s economic structure is sound. Its wealth is widely spread across the country, as opposed to being concentrated in certain areas, as is the case with the U.K. The second is that it has embraced economic policies long trumpeted by the United States and the U.K. Such economic policies included slashing the top rate of the income tax, cutting business taxes, weakening unions, cutting unemployment pay and making pensions less generous (Vits, 2011). The third reason, according to Vits, is that German investors are keeping their money at home, which has provided the income for an investment boom, which has kept German industries “hyper-competitive” (Vits, 2011). Vits also states that the Chinese market, which has been hungry for German imports, such as Audi, is driving Germany’s resurgence as well, as China’s middle class is growing to where they can begin to afford these German imports (Vits, 2011). Conclusions and Recommendations After examining four different countries for the level of threats they pose to the United States in terms of the global market, it becomes clear that China is the one to watch. Part of the reason for this is because China does not have a domestic market for its goods to speak of. The people of China are still not prosperous, and many still live in rural areas. Moreover, China does not have a good security program for its citizens, which has forced its people to be frugal with their money. Therefore, China is reliant on the foreign market, and will be for some time to come. Unless China can stabilize its domestic market, which would mean that, among other things, China giving its people a sense of security by providing health insurance and the equivalent of the U.S. Social Security to its older citizens, China will continue to rely on the foreign market for its growth. And, since it has an enormous population, it needs a lot of growth to sustain employment for its people. All of this contributes to the sense that China will continue to dominate the world market, even surpassing the United States as the largest economy by 2035. The other countries do not pose as much of a threat to the United States, in terms of world market share, for a variety of reasons. Japan is in the decline, and has been for several years. The tsunami and earthquakes in March of this year have not helped Japan’s situation. India is on the ascent, but still has a long ways to go to catch up to China and the United States. However, like China, India has a population that is largely poor, which means that, like China, it will be over-reliant on exporting goods, which will inevitably lead to a trade imbalance, much like with China. Germany, also on the ascent, is less of a threat to the United States than China and India simply because its people are more prosperous and can afford to buy Germany goods. Therefore, domestic production is the key driver of the German economy, which means that Germany will be less of a threat to the world market place then China and India, who are reliant on exports and foreign investment as drivers of their economy. Therefore, the United States should concentrate on the countries of China and India, as these are the two countries that are on the rise and are hyper-reliant on the world market to sustain their growth. China, in particular, has a massive trade imbalance with the United States, and this is something that should not be sustained. Perhaps a bit of a protectionist stance should be taken by the United States towards China, in that it could put more tariffs and regulatory hurdles in the way of receiving Chinese imports. This might help the trade imbalance, although it cannot cure it. China’s domestic demand is simply not high enough to where its imports and exports will be balanced. India, as indicated above, presents less of a challenge to the world marketplace then does China, so there is less of a need to do the same with Indian imports. As for Japan, it seems that this country needs all the help it can get. It is the third-largest economy in the world, so it seems that Japan’s troubles will affect the world, including the United States. Now is not the time to be taking measures to reduce imports from Japan, therefore any kind of protectionist policies that the United States is taking towards Japan should abate until Japan can re-gain its footing after the recent disasters and Japan’s subsequent economic downturn. As for Germany, it seems that, unlike Japan, it is surging economically. However, unlike China and India, the economic surge is not necessarily coming from the world marketplace, but, rather, domestically. Therefore, there is not a reason to re-examine trade policies with Germany, and there should be a need to keep the status quo with this country. Sources Used “Is China Recession Proof?” McKinsey Global Institute May 2009. 14 April 2011 . “China Economy Hums Along as U.S. Remain Mired in Recession” 14 July 2009. 15 April 2011 . “China's Stimulus Package Aims to Boost Economy, Help Avoid Global Recession” MacNeil/Lehrer Newshour 10 November 2008. 17 April 2011 . Bezlova, Antoaneta. “Economy-China: Seeing Opportunity in U.S. Recession” 22 January 2009. 17 April 2011 . Elliott, Larry. “Germany’s New Boom: Making Money by Making Stuff” 14 March 2011. 17 April 2011 Ford, Peter. “China, Taking Advantage of Global Recession, Goes on a Buying Spree.” Christian Science Monitor 21 February 2009. 17 April 2011 . “Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2010 and 2011.” February 2010. 17 April 2011. Hexter, Jimmy & Woetzel, Jonathan. “A U.S. Recession's Soft Impact on China.” HarvardBusiness.org 29 January 2008. 15 April 2011. . “India Economy to Slow Down in 2011.” 6 January 2011. 15 April 2011. “Indian Economy 2011: Economic Expansion Would Be Fragile But it is Expected that Growth Would be Inclusive & Sustainable.” 22 October 2010. 15 April 2011. Lau, Andy. “China Shanghai Economy First Recover from Global Financial Economic Recession Crisis.” Blog 8 March 2009. 17 April 2011 . Pandey, Dr. Sheo Nandan. “China's Fight Back Against Scary Recession With Chinese Characteristics of Market Economy.” South Asia Analysis Group 01 December 2008. 17 April 2011 . Reyes, Julie de los. “Changing Course: China Amid the Global Recession” 17 April 2009. 15 April 2011 . Riley, Jeff. “Developments in the German Economy.” February 2011. 15 April 2011 Schwartz,, Nelson D. “Economic Recovery in Asia Highlights China's Ascendance.” International News 25 August 2009. 17 April 2011 . Sherwood, Matthew. “Global Outlook.” Experian Decision Analytics July 2009. 15 April 2011 . Vits, Christian. “German Economy Expands at Fastest Pace in Two Decades Amid Export Demand.” Bloomberg.com. 12 January 2011. 17 April 2011. Webb, Tim. “Japan’s Economy Heads into Freefall After Earthquake and Tsunami.” Guardian. 13 March 2011. 17 April 2011. Xinyu, Mei. “U.S. Economic Recession Likely Boon for China in Trade, Investment.” CRIENGLISH.com 25 January 2008. 15 April 2011 . Read More