A Myth or a Reality - Literature review Example

A myth or a reality Name: Course: Lecturer: Date: Introduction In the early 21st centaury, China has risen up to become a valued nation in the world affairs and mostly to those countries neighboring it in Asia; this is because it has brought changes to the entire Asian continent. Its favorable economic growth with the diplomacy that they have suits the interests of countries that lie in the Asian continent especially with the ongoing development of multilateral mechanisms in attending to issues at regional levels among other issues (Cutler, 2004). Many of the commentaries and analysis that are being made are trying to asses the growth of Asia and mostly the strengths of China and the weaknesses of US on the other hand. Economic analysts are asking themselves on a number of questions on where the economy is actually heading to as it has been in the United States. For the past three years, the news headlines have been dominated by a number of subjects. One of the subjects is the issue that the China’s economic is growing spontaneously and that in some few decades a head it might lead that one of the United States (Gillcrist, 2006). In defeating the economy of United States, it means that I will be on the lead globally. Secondly, the gradient of the United States is running to negative, and the fear is that it may never recover any more. From analysts, the economy of US is at its terminal decline. Finally, it’s been clear that the global economy is bending towards the Asian continent. A small number currently seem to be dissatisfied with this headlines that has been the order of the day. However, numerous comments have been made by the west concerning this issue but they seem not to take the changes with much consideration (Lyon, 2012). Among the commentaries is Kennedy who in 2010 suggested that he will be migrating with his power from his continent in the west to the east. He is sure that s time has elapsed and it is the turn of the east to take control. In another case, a well known historian, Ferguson also in 2010 came in terms with the fact that their turn has come to an end. Their days are gone when they had powers over the world. During the 16th centaury, they celebrated their best. He further reveals that the past is just but history and the future will no longer be in their hands (Pettit, 2010). Although in his speech never mentioned where he expected the powers to move to, he just summarized that it will fall in another place far from United States. On another scene, Jeffry, 2010, surrendered himself saying that it was their time to hand over the baton. Although post-western might seem to amaze some of the analysts, a number of scholars had made it their thesis in the early 1990s; they had seen it come. Many of the people thought that such a case would ever happen to them. It was only after the downfall of communism and also the United Soviet Socialist Republican that they realized their fall was actually knocking right beside them (Shambaugh, 2005). Neither was this phenomenon mentioned during the era of George William Bush since his leadership was seen to be a unique empire. It has of late changed to a fashion politically and also intellectually for the last few years. It has now beyond everyone’s mind on who prophesized such happenings and what made him reach such conclusions. It turned out to be obvious in 2004, when Bush was actually winding his first term. This was characterized by the quotes made in journals, fired warnings and foreign affairs had filled all over the western space. Hoge, 2004 was worried as seen in his editorials that he made. He noted that if the powers are not well take care of by the west, then it is going to shift to somewhere else. He commented that there will be a shift in global power from the west to a place he did not mention. He argued that conflicts may rise only if the power is not handled carefully. Some arguments were made by some analyst saying that the time had come for power to shift right from the west to the east. Despite all kinds of efforts the powers can never be resisting any further. For instance, Mearsheimer, 2005 was the first to make the observations before he could have followers. He said that the west should be ready as their powers were reducing daily in the global affairs. The one who followed later was Zakaria, 2005 who eloquently said that it is now the best time to talk of post American. Afterwards, everything in America that is affected by economy begins to decline. People started to complain. Pundits too affected the fall of America’s economy only when they thought that its economy was still stable as witnessed earlier. Not only did this affect the US economy but the entire world suffered a great deal on the consequences caused (Willis, 2006). It was noted in 2010 by Plender, 2010 that when powers diminish while other on the other hand rises, then finances are dislocated, turbulence in the currency and tough frictions expected afterwards. Ahead were disturbing times. In his references, Plender, 2010 quoted US as to have diminishing powers and China as to have a rising powers. Recession of 2008 brought it clearly to the minds of those who doubted that the US powers were actually diminishing. As the financial crisis started to calm down, people realized the impact that it had caused on the US economy. It was no doubt no more that the west was declining while to the east it was gaining momentum. In the earlier centuries, Asia was regarded as a place of doom. At that particular time, Asia was actually slowly developing and China in particular growing. It never surprised those who were already convinced that China was actually taking powers from America and not only in terms of economy but also in terms of superpower states. It further made those who had believed, more strong on their side too in their belief that economic forces were shifting from west to the east. In politics, china had adopted communism but in economics, they had employed capitalism so they push them through the 21st centaury and help them balance the forces of economics as observed by Jacques Martin. The 21st centaury has been a geopolitical shift mainly because industrial era was undergoing a new phase. It is through this therefore that in the near future that people would be undertaking their economic lessons in Beijing instead of Washington. The shift does not only mean power but other many things that would be attached to it. In his argument, Jacques, 2010 China was more of a civilized state with a mission other than just a mere state. As it continued to rise, its money and commodities increased traction. The predictions that were made were neither less that a sanguine future that the west would really end there. The comments that were made by Jacques were seconded by a great financial house Goldman. He first anticipated key changes of the economy that were being experienced in the global economy. As seen in his thesis, he has supported with facts of statistical table that has been for years published as ‘Predicted Shift in the Economic Balance of Power.’ The table behaved like an iron-clad economic scenario for a massive power transition. Predictions which are evidenced in the thesis indicates that by 2015, the economy of America will still be higher that that of china. By 2050, china’s economy will have overthrown economy of America by at least 10%. There is a possibility that the economy of china may take over much earlier that the quote period. The real fact is in 2050, the America’s economy will have shrunk to 10%. It is more interesting that countries like Brazil, India, Brazil and Russia would have taken over the entire economy to their hands out playing the west by 2040. It is therefore clear to say that a new era is in the making (Toffler, 2001). It was through academic researches that this occurrence was realized as it had never been predicted before. After a critical analysis, the scholars realized that China was only rising because they were trying to free themselves from the bondage of poverty that had tied them for quite a long period of time and the feeling being isolated from the rest due to extreme poverty, and not on illogical perspectives as stated by some others. As a result of their hard work it yielded something different from their expectations. A debate came up that the revolution of China would create conflicts to the west and questions has not yet been answered. In undertaking this questions on whether the powers are actually shifting from the west to east or US to China or the entire thing is just but a myth? These questions will be handled in this section critically on how the modern world id builds by economic analysts. Am to analyze the world basing on the picture that is being described by analyst to prove it occurred to where it is at the moment and where it is heading to in the future. Before I can analyze on this, I have three points to put across. The first one is the fact that there are so many writers who have conflated crucial changes of the global economic system with a key power shift. On the second note, assets and capabilities will still be in the possession of US and those claiming to be in the west. Lastly, analysts have forgotten the fact that the speed at which China is actually taking in moving a head has confronting limits. The changes that are taking place at the moment are just but sort changes. Has this changes moved quite far and does it come up with something constructive in the near future as analysts termed it power shift. The shift does not only mean power but other many things that would be attached to it. In his argument, Jacques, 2010 China was more of a civilized state with a mission other than just a mere state. As it continued to rise, its money and commodities increased traction. General conclusions have been made on the fact that power shift is moving from west. We should not base our arguments on the fact that when one is falling and the other one is rising, then it is power shift without putting into considerations the fact that there are new actors paling within an agreed set of rules. Background information There was a shift balance in 1400 between civilizations of the world. The Islamic world was declining in the international arena as evidenced by a fall in Abbasids and other disruptions of the Mongols. Though the west was not considered to be powerful, in had begun to undergo a number of crucial changes under that period of civilization. Countries such as Spain, Italy, and Portugal had begun to assume the roles of leadership which was outside the international network. During this time, America was undergoing changes. Towards the Middle East, and those that were powerful in civilization like the Byzantium and Abbasids had crumbed. Its empire was held by Ottoman Turks destroying it. Basing on the social and cultural aspects in the Middle East, paramount was no longer a big deal for the religious leaders to both philosophers and scientists. For instance, a Spanish philosopher could influence the entire Europe as compare to Muslims. On the same note, scholars of Muslims ventured mostly on religion and law governing traditions, the Sufis stressed continually on mystical contact with their god. As a result, changes occurred especially to economy and social life. Since 1100 the became serfs on large estates, consequently, the productivity in agriculture dropped profusely leading to a decrease in tax revenues merchants in the middle east lost to Europe competitors. This decrease was gradual and incomplete. Muslims kept on working on the Indian Ocean and a powerful empire was built by Ottoman Turks. The international vigor of Muslims was never restored by the newly built empire. In Turkey, administration and conquest was given more attention and less to commerce. A vacuum of power was created in the presence of Ottoman. Dominions of Mongols brought in an option to the international, their failures were an opportunities to both china and Europe. Between 1368 and 1644 the Ming dynasty was in power and was replaced by Yuan who fought for Chinese borders that had been lost. It got the influence of Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia and Tibet. A new policy was formulated and state-sponsored trading expeditions were mounted by the Ming to India and countries in the Middle East. Those who led these expeditions were technological leaders of the world. In 1433 the expeditions were halted by Ming rulers as costs were hiking and had begun to suffer opposition from Confucian bureaucrats. Despite the fact that the Chinese merchants were participating actively on the Southeast Asian waters thus making permanent settlements in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, the never dominated the world trading power. During 14th and 15th centauries, west was still behind. Medieval culture were attacked, thus a pass of a philosophical phase of creativity. Warrior aristocrats failed in delivering military defenses and shifted to the rituals of the court. The economic activities of a mere European was in disarray. Food supplies were cut down by a rapid population increase, by 1300; famine had struck was all over. In the 14th centaury, Black Death killed up a third of Europe’s population. The rise of China The judgment that has been made as a result of these trends is not specifically for the interest of United States. Specialists from United States have seemed concern on these trends. Those from china have worked so hard for over fifty years in order to overcome poverty and thus realize the presence of power. We should not base our arguments on the fact that when one is falling and the other one is rising, then it is power shift without putting into considerations the fact that there are new actors paling within an agreed set of rules. Military men from china are working very hard so that they can attain the needed efforts and weapons development to enable them attack the US as an effort to intervene on the Taiwan disputes. On the other hand, the Chinese are at all cost opposing the US in terms of trade agreements and forming a multilateral so that they can overthrow the US. The main aim of china is to make a balancing point of the US being a superpower against Asia. The main issue that seems to challenge the US leadership is how they are going to control the entire Asia yet China is opposing it, and they are too rising. Since World War II, US have been in control of power. According to policymaker in the US, they have enjoyed the control of the world as they have been able to long-stand their interest such political, religious among other values; the challenge here now has risen in that they may not be able to control the eastern part due to their growth in powers. Another question therefore is posted that to what extent does china have control in the east in order to block US from these interests? This also is what is bothering the policy makers in US as they are required to pose policies along that line. Recently, china is building a strong relationship with its neighbors. The reason behind this is the fact that it is making some efforts to improve on its trade network and also with the need to accommodate diplomacy on the government of china by employing both bilateral and multilateral relationships with its neighbors (Toffler, 2001). The policies of the government of china calls for policy on leadership from that of Asian government, on the other hand the Asian government is closely interconnected to the Chinese government apart from being restricted from to join with Taiwan. China is playing game so that they can be seen as if they are not in the war but at the end of it all will emerge the winner after the power has been shifted to the east. Drivers that has favored China The transformation of economy depends on the availability of labor force. As indicated, demographic factors affects the growth of an economy. In a forecast that has been made, it reveals that in the next four decades, labor forces will grow rapidly and more exclusive to the developing countries. Such countries will benefit economically due to population growth since the working ages is between 15-59 years, the developed countries will drop. In 2050, population is expected to have clocked 9.2 billion; in that case therefore, labor force is expected to rise to 1.3 billion. The workforce will contribute 1.5 billion people to the workforce while developed countries such as the US will reduce its labor force by 100 million workers. Asia being a developing continent will be expected to contribute a greater percentage to the global labor force. On the contrary, US will decline by 110 million workers (White, 2010). The dependency ratio in the US by 2050 will increase but reduce in Asia. It is expected to drop from 62% of the total population. The analysis determines economic growth of the world in the near future shift in economy will therefore favor the developing countries such as Asia. Physical capital stocks will accumulate continuously while income increase and rate of savings cover depreciate thus giving more room for investment. On the contrary, as the marginal contribution of capital to output drops, the need for investment reduces. Developed countries such as US, savings a GDP will probably reduce as dependency ratio goes up. Developing countries on the other hand, where the ration of capital to output is relatively lower, capital stocks will gradually increase as population increase too. In this case, china remains an exceptional regardless of shrinking population, investment will be high. US power Economically, analysts are predicting that the US and the west are diminishing and would soon be out. For the last decade, the news headlines had been that US has suffered a great hit back and supported with economic facts. Some point it out that the shift of power has been tilted towards the eastern side. This does not mean that the tilt mean that it can never be reversed; the declining economy. The consumption of steel I China may be twice that of the US; that is, combining the consumption of steel of both EU and Japan. Currently, the most preferred world market is China especially engines; it is currently ranked the leading makers of engines in Asia, thus pushing the Asian economy forward. Despite all this shifts, they still lie under their usual leader that has led ever since which is USA. Ahead were disturbing times. In his references, Plender, 2010 quoted US as to have diminishing powers and China as to have a rising powers. Recession of 2008 brought it clearly to the minds of those who doubted that the US powers were actually diminishing. As the financial crisis started to calm down, people realized the impact that it had caused on the US economy. It was no doubt no more that the west was declining while to the east it was gaining momentum. In the earlier centuries, Asia was regarded as a place of doom. At that particular time, Asia was actually slowly developing and China in particular growing. It never surprised those who were already convinced that China was actually taking powers from America and not only in terms of economy but also in terms of superpower states. It further made those who had believed, more strong on their side too in their belief that economic forces were shifting from west to the east. It has of late changed to a fashion politically and also intellectually for the last few years. It has now beyond everyone’s mind on who prophesized such happenings and what made him reach such conclusions. It turned out to be obvious in 2004, when Bush was actually winding his first term. This was characterized by the quotes made in journals, fired warnings and foreign affairs had filled all over the western space. They noted that if the powers are not well take care of by the west, then it is going to shift to somewhere else. He commented that there will be a shift in global power from the west to a place he did not mention. He argued that conflicts may rise only if the power is not handled carefully. Some arguments were made by some analyst saying that the time had come for power to shift right from the west to the east. Despite all kinds of efforts the powers can never be resisting any further. For instance, in 2005 it was the first to make the observations before it could have followers. He said that the west should be ready as their powers were reducing daily in the global affairs. There are many scholars who followed later one was Zachariah, 2005 who eloquently said that it is now the best time to talk of post American. Afterwards, everything in America that is affected by economy begins to decline. People started to complain. Since World War II, US have been in control of power According to policymaker in the US, they have enjoyed the control of the world as they have been able to long-stand their interest such political, religious among other values; the challenge here now has risen in that they may not be able to control the eastern part due to their growth in powers. Another question therefore is posted that to what extent does china have control in the east in order to block US from these interests? This also is what is bothering the policy makers in US as they are required to pose policies along that line. Recently, china is building a strong relationship with its neighbors. The reason behind this is the fact that it is making some efforts to improve on its trade network and also with the need to accommodate diplomacy on the government of china by employing both bilateral and multilateral relationships with its neighbors. The weak points and problems that may be experienced by Chinese in their latest approaches may be supported their nationalistic dreams, through a rapid growth of military backup and other resources. Taiwan and Japan have found it complicated thus creating tension amongst themselves. Conclusion I conclude by making some claims that what has been explained in this entire article are just but premature claims that powers are shifting from the west to the east. Generally, this seems to be misleading. As witnessed, the United States are still in full powers. The relationships that exist in countries across the Atlantic seem to be less important in this context as may be claimed. There are false claims also that power is shifting from the United States to Asia without putting into consideration the efforts that China is actually putting in order to emerge ahead of its neighboring countries. The unity has been in the Asia has been compromised by the growth of china. In the entire article, there have been many ups and downs on whether the power shift is actually from west to east or US to China or US to Asia. On the other hand, it is not an implication that the entire world is a static place as may have been suggested by other writers and that it is a structural continuity which is wrong as per my argument. The question that is in the mind of many is the direction in which the world is actually headed to. In order to handle this, there are three approaches. The first is the realists who believe that the future of the world is full of dangers more so to the Asian continent. Secondly is the fact that the world currently is built under the firm foundation of peace. Even if it seem to tear apart especially in Asia, economic and peace will make efforts to minimize any abnormalities from occurrence. Finally, the world is currently headed to a state where there will be no superpower at all In mentioning of west means all the countries that works under it. the west may not be able to create a world society because of Asia and specifically China that is working to ensure it outwits United States economically so as to take control. Bibliography Mahbuhani, K. (2009). The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East. PublicAffairs . Cutler, J. (2004). Power Shift. Hodder & Stoughton Canada. Gillcrist, D. (2006). Power Shift: The Transition to Nuclear Power in the U.S. Submarine Force As Told by Those Who Did It. iUniverse. Lyon, V. (2012). Power Shift: From Party Elites to Informed Citizens. iUniverse. Pettit, D. A. (2010). Power Shift: The Hope and Drama of Monumental Wind Powe. Photographics. Shambaugh, D. L. (2005). Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics. University of California Press. Toffler, A. (2001). Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the Edge of the 21st Century. Bantam Books. White, H. (2010). Power Shift: Australia's Future Between Washington and Beijing. Black Inc. Willis, D. (2006). Power Shift: 8 Shifts to Empowered Christian Living. PublishAmerica. Read More