News Poll: Methodology Analysis - Case Study Example

News Poll: Methodology Analysis Student Name: Student ID.: Word Count: Tutorial Group Number: Tutor’s Name: Date: Introduction In carrying out research in various fields, a variety of research methods are usually used. The question however over the years has been, “how effective, accurate and reliable are some of these sources?” Some of the research methods used in the world today for polling include but are not limited to: one-on-one interviews, landline interviews, use of questionnaires as well as mobile phone interviewing (which is the very latest). In this regard therefore, this paper seeks to make an analysis of the research methodologies adopted in a case study which involves a news poll about the Australian campaigns candidature i.e. Mr. Kevin Rudd and Mr. Tony Abott. It is a poll research conducted by The Australian entitled Newspoll for the election campaigns of 2013 in Australia. A Brief Overview of the Research The research herein discussed involves two neck-to-neck prime ministerial candidates-Mr. Tony Abott and Mr. Kevin Rudd in Australia. The research was carried out in the very last week of the election campaign of the year 2013. From the poll results, it comes out that Rudd has already clearly out-trailed his cut-throat competitor, Mr. Tony by a considerable margin in a variety of parameters that were used for the polling. On a similar comparison, Tony’s Coalition seems to have equally performed better based on the same parameters that were used for the research. Compared to the 2010 election campaigns, Coalition now seems to have out rightly shown possibilities of outdoing Labor by a not-assumable margin of just about 10%. It may not be the final election results but it ultimately has a say in the very final election outcomes. Looking at the very latest pre-poll results carried out over the weekend, it can be seen that for the prime ministerial position, Mr. Tony now remains the man to beat after the results show that he is leading by a whopping 43 percent against Mr. Rudd’s 41 percent. This is undeniably a very small margin, but it is also agreeable that it can bring about a whole lot of difference in the final outcome. In December 2009 however, things were absolutely different with Mr. Rudd leading by 53 percent against Mr. Abott’s 31 percent. Enough for the report overview; let me now embark on the discussion of the day. Parameters for the Polling In the process of carrying out the research about the forthcoming House of Representatives elections results, five main parameters were applied to gauge the probable outcome of the election results if they were indeed carried out at the time the survey. It is important to note that in order to come up with comprehensive and reliable survey results, it is critically necessary that we compare a variety of parameters with regard to that particular research. In this case therefore, the two top candidates were gauged based on The Primary Vote, The Two Preferred Political Parties, Rudd’s Performance, Abott’s Performance and The Preferred Candidate for the position of prime minister. For each of the parameters, those participants who seemed uncommitted or unwilling to cooperate were also classified in order to give a clear view of the outcomes. This would aid in improving the reliability of the research results. To begin, the interviewees were asked to mention the political party they would vote for if elections were done at the time of the polling. They were asked to choose one out the six options they were presented with i.e. Labor, Coalition, Greens, Others (other political parties that were not considered popular enough), Uncommitted and Uncooperative. Though not part of this report, it is important to mention that Coalition was leading with 46 percent against their closest rival party Labor’s 33 percent with Greens, Others, Uncommitted and Uncooperative taking 10 percent, 11 percent, 4 percent and 2 percent respectively. Secondly, the respondents were asked to name their most preferred party for the position the upcoming House of Representatives elections. Respondents then gave their responses and based on those responses, data was tabulated for the two most preferred parties i.e. Coalition and Labor. Under this category, Coalition emerged the leader by 8 percent in excess against Labor’s overall of 46 percent. The third parameter that the research was based on was on Rudd’s Performance. Respondents were asked whether they were indeed satisfied with the way he was doing his job as the country’s outgoing prime minister. Again based on their responses, the results were classified as ‘Satisfied’, ‘Dissatisfied’ or ‘Uncommitted’. It came out that their level of dissatisfaction was quite high at 58 percent compared to a paltry 32 percent satisfaction level. The remaining were uncommitted. The forth aspect was based on Abott’s performance as the Leader of Opposition. In their responses, the interviewees registered a dissatisfaction level of 51 percent against 41 percent satisfaction with 8 percent being uncommitted. The last but certainly not the least parameter was the preferred candidate for the position of the prime minister. Respondents here were asked to mention the candidate whom they perceive as being able to make a better prime minister. They then gave their responses which were recorded as follows: Uncommitted – 16%, Abott – 43% and 41% for Rudd. Critical Overview of the Methodology used This research used just one particular method in its quest to come up with conclusive data. The research involved calling the sampled respondents over their telephones and asking them about the parameters discussed above. These surveys were carried out by competently-trained interviewers throughout all the states in Australia. This exercise was carried out in all areas of the urban as well as in the rural areas. The telephone numbers of the respondents were randomly selected for one person within a particular household in all the states of Australia. According to The Australian, the resultant data was weighted in a manner as to portray the distribution of the entire population. For convenience purposes, a total of 1116 respondents were interviewed to be a representative of the total number of voters in the country. There being an obvious possibility of errors occurring in the overall outcome, the research allowed for a maximum margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percent of points. The recent exponential developments in technology have seen many people (virtually everybody) in Australia own at least one mobile phone. In the past, a lot of research interviews were done over landlines – a trend that has since faded with time and advancements in technology. The research under discussion here seems to have taken front in using cell phones for this purpose. It may have been preferred due to the fact that not everybody has landlines in their households. Additionally, use of landlines tends to have a large sample of women compared to men since most men are never home more often. Mobile phones would therefore do in order to end up with a representative outcome. Apparatus and Materials Used Here, the major apparatus that was used for the research was the phones for calling respondents, airtime for similar purpose, software for analyzing the data obtained and a computer(s) for all formal documentations. The Likely Discrepancies and Challenges From The Australian, we realize that there were a bunch of respondents who generally did not commit themselves to the interviews. Though this is a problem with various other research methodologies, it is quite prevalent with mobile phone methods. It may be difficult to convince a potential respondent to give response to the interview questions presented. In fact, it is quite easier for the interviewee to quickly hang up and never to respond again. In the process of interviewing, it is very possible that one respondent may be in ownership of two or more mobile phone numbers. The possibility that both numbers can be randomly selected at ago in one research is obviously undeniable. In such cases therefore, it can only imply that one respondent’s views were considered to be the same number of mobile phone numbers selected (irrespective of whether they belong to same interviewee). This therefore shall compromise the final results. It is hence a shortcoming for the method used i.e. use of mobile phones. Statistical Significance Looking at the methodology used in the news poll, one cannot come to a quick conclusion that either of the two candidates for the position of Australian prime minister is slated for an outright win. But why? Arguing from a different perspective, the statistics obtained in the research may be assumed to have excluded the opinions of those who lack mobile phones. As a matter of fact, a sample size of 1116 respondents out of a prospective voter numbers of millions is out of doubt not representative (at least from a leman’s point of view). For objective analysis of such results, it is only fair to consider as many factors as possible. There could be a possibility for example, that due to one reason or the other, that most of Rudd’s supporters are phoneless. Whether there existed such factors in the course of this research still remains an enigma. However, statistically speaking, the absence of such ‘trivial’ factors may have automatically given Mr. Tony Abott an outright win in the forthcoming elections. Conclusion In conclusion therefore, the methodology used in this research was not only objective enough but also a reflection of how surveys may be professionally carried out in order to consequently predict an outcome of a particular process. This even as it may not be independently verifiable whether most of the necessary deviation factors in this case were indeed followed dully. It is recommended for example, that most, if not all, of these calls be made in the evenings when virtually everybody in the sample size are out of their workplaces so that they may have enough time and space to objectively respond to the poll questions. Read More